促销一直以来便作为商家拉动消费的营销手段。随着网络的普及与网络零售 业的迅猛发展，网络零售市场的竞争也与日俱增，如何拓展消费者或提升市场 规模成为网络零售商家的重要经营目标。其中，促销成为网络零售商家们之间 竞争消费者市场的重要手段之一，也成了刺激线上消费的常见工具。而且线上 促销方式相较于传统线下商户更加多样化，但不同的促销方式对消费者在线购 买行为会造成何种影响，以及面对不同的促销刺激，消费者的心理会发生怎样 的变化，都是网络零售商家值得关注和研究的领域。 每逢节庆以及各大电商促销节日，限时抢购往往成为网络零售商的主要促销 方式。而在线限时促销倒计时度量的方式有天、时、分、秒、毫秒等单位，目 前最常见的精度单位是秒和 0.1 秒。相同的促销时间长短，展现给网络消费者不 一样的时间流逝精度，那么不同的时间流逝速度是否会影响消费者对商品的心 理认知，进而影响其购买决策机制呢？同时，当面对不同涉入度的商品时，其 购买行为究竟会如何变化呢？ 本文通过对相关文献的梳理和总结，明确时间限制在促销中发挥的关键作 用，从而深入研究限时促销时间流逝精度对消费者在线冲动性购买的影响。基 于认知闭合需要理论和决策双系统理论，结合心理学领域的过度自信以及营销 领域的产品涉入度，通过界定夸大感知利益和忽略感知风险作为衡量消费者过 度自信的关键特征要素，并对产品涉入度和在线冲动性购买之间的关系进行梳 理，构建了“限时促销时间流逝精度——过度自信——在线冲动性购买”的理 论模型，同时研究限时促销时间流逝精度在产品涉入度与消费者在线冲动性购 买间的调节作用。 本文在构建的理论模型基础上提出研究假设，通过三个实验和对应的问卷 调查数据对理论假设进行验证，从而探讨线上限时促销时间流逝精度对消费者 冲动性购买的作用机制，得出如下结论：（1）限时促销时间流逝精度对消费者 在线冲动性购买有显著正向影响。（2）夸大感知利益对主效应起完全中介作用， 而忽略感知风险对主效应的中介作用不显著。（3）产品涉入度在倒计时时间流 逝精度与消费者在线冲动性购买间起显著调节作用，只有当消费者在面对高涉II 入度产品的促销时，限时促销时间流逝精度才会对消费者在线冲动性购买产生 显著影响，即限时促销时间流逝精度越高，消费者越倾向于进行在线冲动性购 买。 最后，本文在总结研究结果的基础上，从网络零售企业角度提出了相关促销 策略建议。此外对本文的研究欠缺之处进行分析，并对有待深入研究的方向进 行展望。 关键词：限时促销；在线冲动性购买；时间流逝精度；过度自信；产品涉入度III Abstract Promotion has always been used as a marketing tool for merchants to drive consumption. With the popularity of the Internet and the rapid development of the online retail industry, competition in the online retail market is increasing day by day. How to expand consumers or increase the market size has become an important business goal for online retailers. Among them, promotion has become one of the important means for online retailers to compete in the consumer market, and has become a common tool to stimulate consumption. While online promotion methods are more diverse than traditional offline merchants, what effect different promotion methods have on consumers’ online purchase behavior, and how consumers’ psychological perceptions change in the face of different promotion stimuli, are the areas that online retailers should pay attention to and research. Whenever there are festivals and major e-commerce promotion festivals, flash sales are often the main promotion method for online retailers. The online time-limited promotion countdown units include days, hours, minutes, seconds, milliseconds, etc. At present, the most common precision units are seconds and 0.1 seconds. The same length of promotional time is shown to online consumers with different accuracy of time lapse, so will the different time lapse speed affect the consumer's psychological cognition of the product, and then its purchasing decision mechanism? At the same time, will consumers' purchase behavior be affected when they are facing products with different degrees of involvement? This paper sorts out and summarizes the relevant literature to clarify the key role played by time limit in promotion, and then further studies the impact of time-lapse promotion time precision on consumers' online impulse purchase. Based on the theory of cognitive closed needs and the dual-system theory of decision-making, combined with consumer overconfidence in theIV field of psychology and product involvement in the field of marketing, this paper defines exaggerating perceived benefits and neglecting perceived risks as the key characteristic elements for measuring overconfidence, and the relationship between product involvement and online impulse purchases was sorted out, and a theoretical model of "time-limited promotion time-lapse accuracy-overconfidence-online impulse purchase" was constructed. At the same time, the moderating effect of product involvement between time-lapse accuracy and consumers online impulse purchases was studied. On the basis of the constructed theoretical model, this paper proposes research hypotheses, and verifies the theoretical hypotheses through three experiments and corresponding questionnaire survey data, so as to explore the effect mechanism of the online promotion time lapse accuracy on consumer impulse purchases. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The accuracy of time-lapse promotion time has a significant positive impact on consumers' online impulse purchases. (2) Consumers’ exaggerating perceived benefits plays a full mediating role in the main effect, while consumers’ neglecting perceived risk has no significant mediating effect on the main effect. (3) Product involvement plays a significant role in adjusting the countdown time lapse accuracy and consumers' online impulse purchases; And only when consumers are faced with the promotion of high-involvement products, the time-lapse promotion accuracy will have a significant impact on consumers' online impulse purchases. That is, the higher the time accuracy of time-limited promotion, the more consumers tend to go online Impulse purchase. Finally, on the basis of the research results, this article puts forward relevant promotion strategy suggestions from the perspective of online retail enterprises. Then, the deficiencies of this research are analyzed and the directions for further research are discussed. Keywords: Time-limited promotion; Online impulse purchase; Time-lapse accuracy; Overconfidence; Product involvementV 目录 第一章 绪论....................1 1.1 研究背景 ...............1 1.2 研究问题的提出 ...2 1.3 研究意义 ...............3 1.3.1 理论意义 ........3 1.3.2 实践意义 ........4 1.4 研究内容和技术路线 ..........................4 1.4.1 研究内容 ........4 1.4.2 技术路线 ........5 1.5 论文的创新之处 ...7 1.6 研究方法 ...............7 第二章 理论基础与文献综述.......................9 2.1 理论基础 ...............9 2.1.1 认知闭合需要理论 .......................9 2.1.2 决策双系统理论 ...........................9 2.2 冲动性购买与在线冲动性购买的研究进展 ...................10 2.2.1 冲动性购买理论及其相关研究进展 ........................10 2.2.2 在线冲动性购买行为及其影响因素研究现状 ........11 2.3 时间流逝精度的研究进展 ................13 2.3.1 时间流逝精度的阐释 .................13 2.3.2 时间流逝精度研究现状 .............14 2.4 过度自信的相关研究进展 ................14 2.4.1 过度自信的概念及在促销决策中的测量维度 ........14 2.4.2 过度自信研究现状 .....................15 2.5 产品涉入度的研究进展 ....................16 2.5.1 产品涉入度的概念及其测量 .....16 2.5.2 产品涉入度对消费者在线冲动性购买的研究现状 19VI 2.6 文献述评 .............19 第三章 研究假设与理论模型.....................21 3.1 限时促销时间流逝精度与消费者在线冲动性购买 .......21 3.2 过度自信的中介作用 ........................21 3.2.1 限时促销时间流逝精度与过度自信 ........................21 3.2.2 过度自信与在线冲动性购买 .....22 3.3 产品涉入度的调节作用 ....................23 3.4 构建理论模型 .....24 第四章 实验设计与实施 ..............25 4.1 实验法的实现过程及其特点 ............25 4.2 实验设计及实现过程 ........................26 4.2.1 实验一——主效应实验设计与实现 ........................26 4.2.2 实验二——中介效应实验设计与实现 ....................29 4.3.3 实验三——调节效应实验设计与实现 ....................31 第五章 实证研究..........3