I 摘要 进入21世纪以来，城市群逐步成为我国经济发展的重要增长极，当前城市群内产 业结构存在着核心城市经济带动作用不足，中间层次城市经济能力弱，中小城市产业发 展战略趋同等问题，这些问题制约着城市群产业结构的升级。土地价格作为城市运作的 价值判断标准，反映了城市土地的供需情况、土地利用方式及经济发展状况，土地价格 机制作用于产业集聚及产业转移，进而实现区域整体产业结构调整，在区域产业协同发 展中发挥着调节作用。因此本文开展城市群协同发展视角下地价对产业结构升级的影响 机制的研究。 从地价对于产业结构升级的作用机制和经济学理论两方面进行影响机理分析，继而 提出地价对于产业结构升级作用的研究假设。分析三大城市群土地价格及产业结构的现 状，归纳总结出现存问题。采用面板门槛回归模型和空间杜宾模型进行地价对产业结构 升级的实证研究。 通过以上研究得到如下结论：土地价格上涨对于全国范围、京津冀城市群、长三角 城市群和珠三角城市群的产业结构升级均具有显著的促进作用，这种促进作用是通过对 低附加值第二产业的挤出及第三产业的集聚作用实现的；三大城市群的地价对于产业结 构升级的促进作用明显高于全国；地价上涨对于产业结构升级存在门限效应，且全国及 各城市群门槛值不相同。选取珠三角城市群作为空间溢出效应分析的实证对象，得到珠 三角城市群内产业结构升级系数、第二产业占比和第三产业占比存在显著的正向空间自 相关关系。地价对于产业结构的空间溢出效应显著存在于城市群内各城市之间，高地价 水平地区的地价对低地价水平地区的产业结构升级系数、第二产业占比、第三产业占比 均存在正向的空间溢出效应。计量实证结果与理论分析及研究假设相符。 最后基于土地价格机制提出城市群产业结构升级的对策建议，采用梯度地价政策分 别调控第二产业和第三产业发展布局及占比，达到产业结构升级的目的；城市群各等级 城市制定符合自身发展阶段的地价调节政策；城市群内加强顶层设计，形成一体化土地 价格管理机制和产业发展机制。 关键词：城市群；地价；产业结构升级；门限效应；空间溢出效应 Abstract II Abstract Since the 21st century, urban agglomerations have gradually become an important growth pole of China's economic development. At present, there are some problems in the industrial structure of urban agglomerations, such as insufficient economic driving role of core cities, weak economic capacity of intermediate level cities, convergence of industrial development strategies of small and medium-sized cities. These problems can restrict the industrial structure upgrade of urban agglomerations. As the value judgment standard of urban operation, land price reflects the supply and demand of urban land, land use mode and economic development. Land price mechanism plays a regulatory role in the adjustment of regional overall industrial structure and in the coordinated development of regional industries by acting on industrial agglomeration and industrial transfer. Therefore, this paper studies the impact mechanism of land price on the upgrading of industrial structure from the perspective of coordinated development of urban agglomerations. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of land price on the upgrading of industrial structure from two aspects: mechanism and economic theory, and then puts forward the research hypothesis of land price on the upgrading of industrial structure. This paper analyzes the current situation of land price and industrial structure in three urban agglomerations, and sums up the existing problems. The panel threshold regression model and spatial Dubin model are used to study the upgrading of industrial structure. We can reach the following conclusions from the research above: First, the rise of land price has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure upgrade of the whole country, Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, and such promotion is achieved by crowding out the second industry with low added value and clustering the third industry. Second, the land prices of the three urban agglomerations has a significant role in promoting the industrial structure upgrade than the land price of the whole country. Third, the rise of land price has a threshold effect on the industrial structure upgrade, and the threshold values of the whole country and each city group are different. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration as the empirical object of spatial spillover effect analysis, we find that there are significant positive spatial autocorrelation coefficients between the industrial structure upgrade, and the proportion of the second industry and the proportion of the third industry respectively. The spatial spillover effect of land price on industrial structure is significant among cities in the urban agglomeration. The land price of higher price area has a positive spatial spillover effect on lower price area in aspects of the upgrading coefficient of industrial structure, the proportion of secondary industry and the proportion of tertiary industry. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis and research hypothesis. Finally, based on the land price mechanism, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the industrial structure upgrade of urban agglomerations. It is suggested to use the gradient land price policy to adjust the development of the second industry and the third Abstract III industry respectively to achieve the purpose of industrial upgrading. In addition, urban agglomerations at all levels should formulate the land price adjustment policy in line with their own development stage. Finally, strengthen the top-level design within urban agglomerations to form an integrated land price management mechanism and industrial development mechanism system. Keywords: urban agglomeration, land price,industrial structure, threshold effect, spatial spillover effects 目 录 IV 目 录 北京建筑大学硕士学位论文原创性声明 北京建筑大学硕士学位论文使用授权书 摘要 ........... I ABSTRACT ..... II 第1章 绪 论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景、意义和目的 .......................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ........... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ........... 2 1.1.3 研究目的 ........... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ...... 2 1.2.1 地价的研究综述 .............................. 2 1.2.2 产业结构的研究综述 ...................... 3 1.2.3 地价对产业结构调整作用的研究综述 .......................... 4 1.2.4 研究评述 ........... 6 1.3 研究内容 .................. 7 1.4 研究思路与研究方法 ............................. 8 1.4.1 研究思路 ........... 8 1.4.2 研究方法 ........... 9 1.5 创新点 ...................... 9 第2章 概念界定与理论分析 ..... 10 2.1 概念界定 ................ 10 2.1.1 城市群 ............. 10 2.1.2 地价 ................. 10 2.1.3 产业结构升级 . 11 2.2理论基础 ................ 11 2.2.1 产业结构演进理论 ........................ 11 2.2.2 产业转移理论 . 12 2.2.3 产业布局理论 . 13 2.2.4 门限效应理论 . 13 2.2.5 空间溢出效应 . 14 2.3 地价对产业结构升级的影响机理分析 14 目 录 V 2.3.1 地价对产业结构升级的作用机制分析 ........................ 14 2.3.2 地价对产业结构作用的经济学理论分析 .................... 15 2.4 本章小结 ................ 17 第3章 城市群地价与产业结构现状分析 ................. 18 3.1 土地价格现状分析 18 3.1.1 土地价格相关政策演变历程 ......... 18 3.1.2 土地价格总体呈上升趋势 ............. 18 3.1.3 城市群内各等级城市地价梯度明显 ............................ 20 3.2 土地价格现存问题分析 ........................ 20 3.2.1土地价格扭曲现象明显 ................. 20 3.2.2 存在土地价格管理行政壁垒 ......... 21 3.2.3 中小城市土地经济价值待提升 ..... 21 3.3 城市群产业结构现状 ........................... 21 3.3.1 产业结构均呈现高级化趋势 ......... 21 3.3.2 高附加值产业产值增幅显著 ......... 22 3.4 城市群产业结构现存问题 .................... 23 3.4.1 城市群内尚未形成纵向产业链 ..... 23 3.4.2 城市间产业同构现象明显 ............. 23 3.4.3 城市群产业发展处于全球价值链中低端 .................... 23 3.5本章小结 ................ 24 第4章 地价对产业结构升级的面板门限效应分析 . 25 4.1 指标选取与数据来源 ........................... 25 4.1.1 指标选取 ......... 25 4.1.2 数据来源 ......... 26 4.2 面板门限模型建立 26 4.2.1 Hansen面板门限模型 .................... 26 4.2.2 地价作用于产业结构升级的面板门限模型 ................ 27 4.3 全国面板门限实证