乘用车润滑油销量因素研究 摘要 石油化工行业是我国重要的支柱产业之一，其衍生制品覆盖了能源、工业、材料、 机械加工以及交通运输等领域，在国民经济中起着重要的作用。润滑油是石油化工行 业重要的组成部分之一。润滑油指涂抹在活塞以及机械轴承等运动部件表面的油液， 主要起到了减少运动部件表面的摩擦、冷却、防锈、绝缘、密封、清洗杂质等作用， 是各类金属加工、机械设备、交通运输必不可少的产品，它与宏观经济的景气程度息 息相关，因此也被称为工业发展的“晴雨表”。 2003年，中国超越了俄罗斯，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大润滑油消费国。在 2011年之前，伴随着中国GDP高速增长，润滑油消费量保持稳步上升。但由于近几 年经济“新常态”现象的出现，通过增加投资来实现经济与工业双增长的时代已经结 束，而汽车行业，特别是乘用车市场，依然呈现高速发展的态势，这对国内润滑油产 业结构造成了巨大影响。工业润滑油消费量大幅下降，而车用润滑油，如：内燃机润 滑油、润滑脂、液压油、齿轮油、润滑脂等需求量迅速提升。2018年车用润滑油需 求量占比达到了53%，超过工业润滑油，其中乘用车润滑油份额高达30%。 在乘用车润滑油销量激增的背后，是中国汽车行业的飞速发展。2009年乘用车 产销从百万量级跨入千万量级，销量更是在2017年达到巅峰2,472万辆。虽然2018 年和2019年新车销量连续两年出现下滑，但是产销依然保持世界第一。乘用车保有 量较过往同比增速放缓，但是依然保持正增长。作为乘用车使用的必需品，乘用车润 滑油同样呈现出巨大的增长潜力。专家预计，国内乘用车润滑油规模从2018年开始， 将会连续五年保持20%的速度增长。但是，乘用车使用会带来包括环境污染、资源浪 费、道路拥挤等一系列相关问题。因此，国家颁布了相关法律制度，要求汽车企业降 低车辆尾气排放污染物，并鼓励市民低碳出行，这些举措都会对乘用车润滑油需求量 产生了一定的影响。 纷繁复杂的背景下，探究影响乘用车润滑油销量的因素以及这些因素的影响程度 对相关上下游企业来说极其重要，这也是本论文主要研究的问题。 本文首先采用文献分析法，通过研读国内外相关书籍和文献，整理相关学者研究 结果，特别是乘用车销量与用车成本、国家政策对乘用车影响以及鼓励绿色出行政策 等相关研究资料。研读文献资料后，针对可能影响乘用车润滑油销量的因素进行分类， 从经济与产业、居民生活水平、使用成本、国家政策四个大类出发，对具体影响因素 摘要 做了详细的分析。 其次，本文通过实证分析法，研究通过文献分析法找到的具体因素，建立其与乘 用车润滑油销量的模型。其中，经济与产业大类中选取了国内生产总值、汽油乘用车 保有量、原油加工量；居民生活水平大类中选取了城镇居民可支配收入以及城镇居民 消费性支出；使用成本大类中选取了国内92号汽油均价、城镇居民人均交通通信消 费支出；国家政策大类中选取了新能源乘用车保有量以及地铁里程数。乘用车润滑油 销量模型则选取了G公司的全国30城市乘用车润滑油零售监测数据。实证中发现选 取的因素之间存在多重共线性问题，因此采用了主成分回归来处理多重共线性问题。 从实证结果来看，中国原油加工量，汽油乘用车保有量、国内生产总值、城镇居 民可支配收入、城镇居民消费性支出以及人均交通通信消费支出呈现出正向相关；而 92号汽油价格、新能源乘用车保有量以及地铁里程数则呈现负向相关。其中国内生 产总值、汽油车保有量、城镇居民消费性支出以及地铁里程数对乘用车润滑油影响较 大。国内生产总值的增长宏观层面，它能够反映产业结构的改变，微观角度，它表现 在居民生活水平上。乘用车润滑油与汽油乘用车保有量有着正相关关系，即：汽油乘 用车保有量越高，乘用车润滑油使用基数就越大。城镇居民消费性支出的提高，意味 着居民在满足日常必要开支外，有能力实现了物质与精神上更多的满足，例如开车通 勤或自驾出游等，这也能够推动乘用车润滑油销量的上涨。地铁里程则是对乘用车润 滑油销量产生反向作用中影响最大的因素，地铁里程越长，代表能覆盖的地区越广， 服务的便利性提高，促使公众转变其出行选择。 关键词： 乘用车润滑油， 销量， 多元线性回归 ABSTRACT The Research on Influential Factors of Passenger Vehicle Engine Oil ABSTRACT Petrochemical industry is one of the most important pillar industries in China. Its derivative products cover energy, industrial materials, machining and transportation, and play an important role in the national economy. Engine oil is an important part of petrochemical industry. Engine oil refers to the oil daubed on the surface of piston and mechanical parts. It plays a role in reducing friction, cooling, rust prevention, insulation, sealing, cleaning. It is an essential product for all kinds of metal processing, mechanical equipment and transportation. It is closely related to macro-economy. So it is also known as the "barometer" of industrial development. In 2003, China overtook Russia and was the second-largest engine oil consumer country in the world. With China's rapid GDP growth, engine oil consumption continued to rise until 2011. With the emergence of the "new normal" phenomenon, the era of increasing investment to achieve both economic growth and industrial development has come to an end. With the emergence of the "new normal" phenomenon, the era of increasing investment to achieve both economic growth and industrial development has come to an end. For the automobile industry, especially the passenger car market, its rapid development has caused a great impact on the domestic lubricating oil industry structure. The consumption of industrial engine oil has decreased greatly, and the demand for automotive engine oil has increased rapidly. In 2018, the demand for automotive engine oil accounted for 53% which was more than that of industrial engine oil, and the share of passenger vehicle-related lubricants was as high as 26%. Behind the surge in sales of passenger vehicle engine oil is the rapid development of China's auto industry. In 2009, the production and sales of passenger cars both rose from millions to tens of millions, and reached a peak of 24.72 million in 2017. Despite two consecutive years of decline in new car sales from 2018 to 2019, China's production and sales remain the world's No.1. Passenger car ownership is growing at a slower pace than in the past, but it is still in positive territory. As a necessity for the use of passenger cars, passenger car engine oil also shows the great growth in potential. Experts predict that the scale of domestic passenger vehicle engine oil would maintain 20% growth rate for five consecutive years from 2018. However, it is accompanied by a series of related problems, ABSTRACT including environmental pollution, waste of resources and road congestion. Therefore, some relevant laws and regulations have been issued, which required automobile enterprises reducing vehicle emissions of pollutants, and encouraging citizens to use public transportation. These measures have impacted on the demand for passenger vehicle engine oil. Under the complicated background, it is extremely important for relevant upstream and downstream enterprises to explore the factors that affect the sales volume of passenger vehicle engine oil. And this is also the main research issue of this paper. Firstly, this paper adopts the literature analysis method. Through study domestic and international relevant books and literatures and collate the research results of relevant scholars, especially research materials including sales volume, cost of passenger cars, the impact of national policies on passenger cars and policies to encourage green travel. After studying the literature, I classified the factors that might affect the sales volume of passenger vehicle engine oil. I make a detail analysis on the specific factors from four categories including economy & industry, residents’ living standard, living costs and national policies. Secondly, through empirical analysis, this paper studies the specific factors which was founded in the previous literature analysis, and establishes the model of its relationship with the sales volume of passenger vehicle engine oil. Among them, GDP, gasoline passenger car ownership and crude oil processing volume are selected in the economic and industrial categories. Residents' disposable income and consumption expenditure of urban residents are selected in the living standard category. The average price of domestic No.92 gasoline and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents are selected in the use cost category. In the national policy category, new energy passenger car ownership and subway mileage are selected. The passenger vehicle engine oil sales model selec