近年来，中国国际贸易增速稳中有升，特别是受中国消费升级对进口产品的 需求极速增长，加之一带一路政策的大力推行、自贸区相关政策的落地开花，进 口冷冻肉、水产品、休闲食品、粮油调料等消费品进口增速明显。而在进口牛肉 行业，我国牛肉进口量连年增长，在2018年突破100万吨大关，市场前景广阔。 随着牛肉进口量的快速增长和国内市场日益激烈的竞争环境，进口企业生存 压力巨大，不得不向自身的管理水平要效益，特别是对库存管理的重视，纷纷尝 试新的库存管理模式，以期新的机遇与发展。 在供应链发展过程中，供应链整体竞争力尤为重要。在进口牛肉产业链内， 从牧场养殖、工厂屠宰、分割、包装，经过进出口环节，再到国内流通环节，直 至终端消费者，产业链非常长。而由于终端（包括终端销售渠道及终端消费者） 需求的不稳定，在长产业链中会逐级放大，产生＂牛鞭效应＂，无疑会大概率增 加供应链上游，特别是国外屠宰加工-出口-进口-国内经销这一系列环节对牛肉库 存控制的难度。所以，如何高效率控制冷冻进口牛肉库存水平对于提高进口牛肉 产业链整体运作效率，适应快速多变的市场需求，具有关键性的现实意义。 本文借由中小型民营流通企业H公司，对该公司出现的供应链内部信息沟通 不畅、进口牛肉采购渠道单一、库存成本压力大、供给不平衡、甚至出现仓库缺 货和爆仓等库存问题进行描述和剖析。在充分调查研究H公司现有市场需求预测 方法和其自身的供应链流程的基础上，本文将会通过对需求预测准确率偏低、采 购提前期长、上下游信息不畅等方面分析其进口牛肉库存管理出现问题的主要原 因。 结合H公司所在进口牛肉采销环节的位置和H公司自身条件，本文发现供应 商库存管理VMI（VendorManagementInventory）可以提高H公司的进口牛肉库 存管理水平。根据H公司的发展趋势及发展策略，在基于VMI库存管理方法的 基础上，本课题将会对H公司实施VMI库存管理的可行性和实施后的效果进行 分析。通过H公司与国外供应商建立起有特色的VMI合作关系，并不断改进，整 合了供应链整体的库存情况，有效提高了库存周转率，降低了库存水平，提高了 销售规模。通过加强与下游客户的战略合作，优化了需求预测方法，提高了H公 司的预测准确率，保证了供货的持续与稳定。通过与下游客户的战略协议以及相 互磨合，设定可行的VMI安全仓库，避免了缺货或者爆仓情况的发生，缩短了采 购提前期。本文分析对比了H公司实施VMI这5个月的相关数据，得出了现阶 V 段实施VMI大大改善了H公司的库存管理水平，促进了H公司快速发展，提高 了企业的服务水平，提升了整个供应链竞争力，对同类型企业有一定参考意义。 关键词：库存管理；冷冻进口牛肉；VMI VI Abstract Inrecentyears,thegrowthrateofChina'sinternationaltradehasbeensteadily rising,especiallywiththerapidgrowthofdemandforimportedproductsunderthe upgradingofChina'sconsumption,alongwiththevigorousimplementationofthebelt androadpolicyandthelandingoftherelatedpoliciesoftheFTA,theimportoffrozen meat,aquaticproducts,snackfoods,grainandoilseasoningandotherconsumergoods importsincreasedsignificantly.Intheimportedbeefindustry,thebeefimportvolume ofourcountryhasbeenincreasingyearbyyear,breakingthroughthe1milliontons markin2018,andthemarketprospectsarebroad. Withtherapidgrowthofbeefimportsandtheincreasinglyfiercecompetition environmentinthedomesticmarket,importingenterprisesareundergreatpressureto survive.Theyhavetobenefitfromtheirownmanagementlevel,especiallyattaching importancetoinventorymanagement.Theyhavetriednewinventorymanagement modeinordertohavenewopportunitiesanddevelopment. Intheprocessofsupplychaindevelopment,theoverallcompetitivenessofsupply chainisparticularlyimportant.Inthesupplychainofimportedbeef,theinstabilityof terminaldemandwillmagnifystepbystep,resultingin"bullwhipeffect",which greatlyincreasesthedifficultyofinventorycontrolofimportedbeefintheupstreamof thesupplychain.Therefore,howtoeffectivelycontrolthestockoffrozenimported beefisofgreatpracticalsignificanceforimprovingtheoperationefficiencyofthe importedbeefsupplychainandadaptingtotherapidlychangingmarketsupplyand demand. ThispaperisbasedonHcompany,asmallandmedium-sizedprivatecirculation enterprise,todescribeandanalyzeindetailtheproblemsofthesupplychaininternal informationcommunicationisnotsmooth,thepurchasemodeofimportedbeefis single,theinventorycostistoohigh,thesupplyisoutofstockfromtimetotime,the warehouseoftenburstsandsoon.OnthebasisoffullyinvestigatingHcompany's existingmarketdemandforecastingmechanismandsupplychainprocess,thispaper intendstoanalyzethemainreasonsforitsimportedbeefinventorymanagement problemsfromtheaspectsoflowaccuracyofdemandforecasting,longprocurement leadtime,andpoorupstreamanddownstreaminformation. VII ConsideringthecharacteristicsofHcompany'ssupplychainandHcompany's ownconditions,thispaperfindsthatVendorManagementInventory(VMI)can improveHcompany'simportedbeefinventorymanagement.AccordingtoH company'sfuturedevelopmentstrategyandbasedonVMIinventorymanagement method,thistopicintendstoanalyzethefeasibilityandeffectofimplementingVMI inventorymanagementinHfoodcompany.ByestablishingasuitableVMI cooperationrelationshipwithforeignsuppliers,theoverallinventorysituationofthe supplychainisintegrated,theinventoryturnoverrateiseffectivelyimproved,the inventorylevelisreduced,andthesalesscaleisimproved.Bystrengtheningthe strategiccooperationwithdownstreamcustomers,thedemandforecastingmethodhas beenchanged,theforecastingaccuracyofHcompanyhasbeenimproved,andthe stabilityofsupplyhasbeenguaranteed.Throughthestrategicagreementwith downstreamcustomers,VMIsecuritywarehouseissetup,whichavoidstheoccurrence ofshortageorexplosion,andshortenstheprocurementleadtime.Thispaperanalyses andcomparestherelevantdataoftheimplementationofVMIinHcompanyduringthe pastfivemonths,andconcludesthattheimplementationofVMIatthisstagehas greatlyimprovedtheinventorymanagementlevelofHcompany,promotedtherapid developmentofHcompany,improvedtheserviceleveloftheenterprise,enhancedthe competitivenessofthewholesupplychain,andhasacertainreferencesignificancefor similarenterprises. KeyWords:Inventorymanagement;Importedfrozenbeef;VMI VIII 目录 第一章绪论..................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景与意义................................................................................................1 1.2研究方法............................................................................................................2 1.3研究创新点........................................................................................................2 1.4研究思路............................................................................................................3 第二章库存管理相关理论与方法概述......................................................5 2.1库存的相关概念................................................................................................5 2.1.1库存的含义...............................................................................................................5 2.1.2库存的作用和危害..................................................................................................5 2.2库存管理概念、内容与作用............................................................................6 2.3库存管理传统理论............................................................................................6 2.3.1ABC分类管理法...................................................................................................7 2.3.2再订货点法...............................................................................................................7 2.4新形势下的库存管理理论................................................................................8 2.5供应商库存管理VMI相关理论......................................................................10 2.5.1VMI理论发展..........................................................................................................10 2.5.2VMI特点..................................................................................................................13 2.5.3VMI运行条件..........................................................................................................14 第三章H公司库存管理问题及其成因分析...........................................15 3.1进口牛肉行业概况..........................................................................................15 3.1.1冷冻进口牛肉行业现状及发展前景...................................