I M钢铁股份有限公司钢材期货套期保值策略研究 摘要 随着我国经济的高速发展，作为我国经济发展中不可或缺的一部 分，钢铁行业的发展一直都在扮演者重要的角色。然而，近些年来， 整个钢铁行业出现了发展困境，产能过剩、环境污染、市场价格波动 过大等问题凸显，国内钢铁企业纷纷面临巨大亏损，各地钢铁企业选 择多种方式维持自身发展，例如选择期货进行套期保值规避市场风险 等。而国家也适时的推出了供给侧改革的政策。那么作为钢铁企业， 如何在这种行业转型升级的大背景下，做好自身的发展，充分利用期 货套期保值工具改进自身的生产经营就成了十分重要的课题。 本文结合M钢铁股份有限公司的套期保值业务现状展开研究， 通过对以往案例的分析，以及专家访谈的方式，找出M公司在整个 套期保值策略前端市场研判、中端方案制定、后端操作风险，以及制 度与评价四个方面存在的问题。通过对这一系列问题的分析研究，弄 清了M公司在整个套期保值策略过程中的真正困境和症结所在，找 到了在以往套期保值策略中必须得到改进的部分，并对这部分问题提 出解决方案或改进措施，对整个套期保值策略进行优化研究，使M 公司能更好的利用期货套期保值工具达到稳定经营，持续发展的目 的。 同时，本文将优化后的套期保值策略进行案例预估，通过对其在 预估案例中的实际运行效果的分析总结，优化的套期保值策略达到了 摘要 II 预想的效果。和以往的套期保值策略相比，更贴近M公司生产经营 的实际情况，更科学完善的解决了M公司生产经营遇到的风险问题， 更完整的达到了套期保值的目标，有效的提高了公司利润，改善了M 公司的生产经营战略，真正可以为公司稳定经营，持续发展起到关键 作用。 通过本文的分析研究，我们得出的研究结论是：M钢铁股份有限 公司必须更好的利用期货套期保值工具，将自身发展情况和套期保值 理念相结合，做出最有效，最符合企业经营需要的套期保值策略，并 对其不断改进，从而才能达到规避生产经营风险，稳定企业经营的目 的。 关键词：套期保值；M公司；钢材期货；钢铁行业 ABSTRACT III RESEARCHONHEDGINGSTRATEGYOFSTEELFUTURESINMSTEEL COMPANY ABSTRACT WiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy,asanindispensablepartof China'seconomicdevelopment,thedevelopmentofsteelindustryhasbeenplayingan importantrole.However,inrecentyears,thewholeironandsteelindustryhas encountereddevelopmentdifficulties,suchasovercapacity,environmentalpollution, andexcessivemarketpricefluctuations.Domesticironandsteelenterprisesarefacing hugelosses.Localironandsteelenterpriseschoosevariouswaystomaintaintheir owndevelopment,suchaschoosingfuturestohedgeagainstmarketrisks,andthe statehastimelylaunchedsupplysidereformAsasteelenterprise,howtomakefull useoffutureshedgingtoolstoimproveitsproductionandoperationhasbecomea veryimportanttopic. ThispaperstudiesthecurrentsituationofhedgingbusinessofMcompany. Throughtheanalysisofpreviouscasesandinterviewswithexperts,itfindsoutthe existingproblemsofMcompanyinthefouraspectsofthewholehedgingstrategy front-endMarketResearchandjudgment,middle-endschemeformulation,back-end operationalrisk,andsystemandevaluation.Throughtheanalysisandresearchof theseproblems,therealdilemmaandcruxofMcompanyinthewholeprocessof hedgingstrategyareclarified,andthepartthatmustbeimprovedintheprevious hedgingstrategyisfound,andthesolutionsorimprovementmeasuresareputforward forthispartoftheproblem,andthewholehedgingstrategyisoptimized,sothatM companycanmakebetteruseoffutureshedgingToolstoachievestableoperationand sustainabledevelopment. Atthesametime,thispaperforecaststheoptimizedhedgingstrategyinthecase, ABSTRACT IV throughtheanalysisandsummaryofitsactualoperationeffectinthepredictioncase, theoptimizedhedgingstrategyachievestheexpectedeffectparedwiththe previoushedgingstrategy,itisclosertotheactualsituationofproductionand operationofMcompany,morescientificandperfecttosolvetheriskproblems encounteredinproductionandoperationofMcompany,moreIthascompletely achievedthegoalofhedging,effectivelyimprovedthecompany'sprofit,improved theproductionandoperationstrategyofMcompany,andreallyplayedakeyrolein thestableoperationandsustainabledevelopmentofthecompany. Throughtheanalysisandresearchofthispaper,wecometotheconclusionthat: Mcompanymustmakebetteruseoffutureshedgingtools,combineitsown developmentwithhedgingconcept,makethemosteffectivehedgingstrategywhichis mostinlinewiththeneedsofenterpriseoperation,andimproveitcontinuously,soas toavoidproductionandoperationrisksandstabilizetheenterprisePurposeof operation. PengZhao(MBA) SupervisedbyJiongWu KEYWORDS:Hedging,Mcompany,Steelfutures,Steelindustry 目录 V 目录 摘要..............................................................................................................................Ⅰ ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................Ⅲ 1绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义......................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.......................................................................................................1 1.2.2研究目的和意义...........................................................................................1 1.2研究内容与方法及创新点......................................................................................2 1.2.1研究内容.......................................................................................................2 1.2.2研究方法.......................................................................................................3 1.2.3研究创新点...................................................................................................5 2钢材期货套期保值理论概述....................................................................................6 2.1套期保值理论..........................................................................................................6 2.1.1套期保值定义...............................................................................................6 2.1.2套期保值理论发展.......................................................................................8 2.2期货套期保值与企业经营研究..............................................................................9 2.2.1期货价格发现功能理论...............................................................................9 2.2.2期货套期保值与企业经营的关系理论.....................................................12 2.3钢材期货套期保值业务研究现状........................................................................13 3M钢铁股份有限公司钢材期货套期保值业务背景.............................................15 3.1钢铁行业及钢材期货市场现状............................................................................15 3.1.1钢铁行业概况.............................................................................................15 3.1.2钢材价格影响因素分析.............................................................................17 3.1.3国内钢材期货市场情况.............................................................................19 3.1.4钢材期货合约概述.....................................................................................21 3.1.5钢材期货功能.............................................................................................22 3.2M钢铁股份有限公司简介及套期保值业务概况..............................................23 3.2.1公司基本状况.............................................................................................23 目录 VI 3.2.2M公司钢材期货套期保值目的................................................................25 3.2.3M公司钢材期货套期保值业务简述........................................................26 4M钢铁股份有限公司钢材期货套期保值策略现状分析.....................................27 4.1M公司研究钢材期货套期保值策略的动因......................................................27 4.2M公司进行钢材期货套期保值的可行性..........................................................28 4.3M公司期货套期保值过往案例问题分析..........................................................29 4.3.1M公司螺纹钢套期保值案例分析...........................................................30 4.3.2M公司热轧卷板套期保值案例分析.......................................................30