地方政府政绩诉求是财政支出波动的重要动因，而财政支出波动会影响企业 投资水平。本文以2010-2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本，实证检验了地方政 绩诉求-财政支出波动-企业投资水平这样一条宏观因素作用于微观因素所产生 的经济后果的传导机制。研究发现：政绩诉求压力的增加整体上会刺激地区财政 支出波动幅度的增加，经济诉求、社会诉求与环境诉求压力均与政府财政支出波 动幅度呈正相关。地区相对经济增长率越好，财政压力越小，地方财政支出波动 幅度会越小；当地方面临的就业压力与环境压力越大，地方政府对地区财政调控 力度越大，地区财政支出波动越明显。而且，四个解释变量中，地区相对经济增 长率对财政支出波动的影响最小，失业率、财政压力与环境压力的影响程度则相 对更明显；不同的政绩诉求压力下，财政支出结构波动性也存在差异。进一步研 究发现，财政支出波动会显著提高企业的投资水平。但是，地方财政支出波动对 国有企业投资水平的提升作用显著，对民营企业不显著；五类不同性质的财政支 出中，金融监管支出、社会保障支出与教育支出对企业投资水平的正向影响更大； 不同地区与市场化水平下，财政支出波动对企业投资水平的影响也呈现差异。市 场化水平越低的地区，企业投资水平受财政支出波动的正向影响更显著；而且， 财政支出波动对东部企业投资水平无显著影响，对中西部企业投资水平影响较显 著。 本文为如何提升财政政策的实施效果、降低政府财政支出波动对企业投资水 平的调控不确定性风险提供了具有一定可行性的决策依据，也为地方政府经济、 社会和环境的多目标协调发展和调控力度等提供了有益的政策启示：（1）地方 政绩诉求不仅仅是官员个人晋升诉求的体现，作为区域制度的提供者，地方政府 应立足于更广的着眼点，而不仅仅是政治晋升。应在肯定政绩考核制度的基础上， 完善地方官员政绩考核标准与体系；（2）市场机制自身存在的不足会增加企业 投资风险，而且不同产权性质、不同市场化水平、不同地区的企业获取政府财政 政策信号及利用该政策带来的积极效应的水平存在差异，不利于竞争中性原则实 现。应当完善对地方政府财政支出的科学决策机制，使得财政支出政策为市场中 不同市场化水平下，各种产权性质和各类地区的企业创造平等市场主体的竞争地 位；（3）财政行为总额和结构波动有利于提高产业技术复杂度，促进产业结构 升级以及促进地区企业投资。在发挥该作用的同时，应加强东部、中部和西部地 区财政支出的协调与合作，欠发达地区则需要进一步加大财政支出结构优化力度， 提高财政公共服务支出使用效率，更好地促进本地区及周边地区企业的投资活动。 【关键词】政绩诉求；财政支出波动；投资水平 II ABSTRACT This paper takes A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2017 as a sample, and empirically tests the transmission mechanism of economic consequences caused by macro factors such as political performance appeal, financial expenditure fluctuation and enterprise investment. The results show that the increase of the pressure of performance appeal will stimulate the fluctuation range of fiscal expenditure as a whole, and the pressure of economic appeal, social appeal and environmental appeal are all positively related to the fluctuation range of government fiscal expenditure. The better the regional relative economic growth rate is, the smaller the financial pressure will be, while the fluctuation range of local financial expenditure will be smaller; when the local employment pressure and environmental pressure are greater, the local government's efforts to adjust and control the regional finance will be greater, and then the fluctuation of regional financial expenditure will be more obvious. Moreover, among the four explanatory variables, the relative growth rate of GDP has the least influence on the fluctuation of fiscal expenditure, while the factor of the unemployment rate, fiscal pressure and environmental pressure have more obvious influence, while the nature of enterprises is different, the government's regulation on fiscal policy is different. Under the pressure of performance demands, the local government's financial expenditure to state-owned enterprises is significant, but not to private enterprises; under different pressure of performance demands, the volatility of financial expenditure structure is also different. Further research shows that the fluctuation of financial expenditure will significantly improve the investment level of enterprises. However, the fluctuation of local financial expenditure plays a significant role in improving the investment level of state-owned enterprises, but not in private enterprises. Among the five different types of financial expenditure, financial supervision expenditure, social security expenditure and education expenditure have a greater positive impact on enterprise investment; under different regions and market-oriented levels, the impact of financial expenditure fluctuation on enterprise investment level is also different. In areas with low marketization level, the positive impact of financial expenditure fluctuation on the investment level of enterprises is more significant; moreover, the financial expenditure behavior has no significant impact on the investment level of enterprises in the East, but has an important influence on the investment level of enterprises in the central and western regions. At the same time, through the channel mechanism test. This paper provides a feasible decision-making basis for how to improve the implementation effect of fiscal policy and reduce the regulatory uncertainty risk of government financial expenditure on enterprise investment. It also provides useful policy implications for the multi-objective coordinated development and regulation of local government's economy, society and environment: (1) the pursuit of political achievements is not only the embodiment of the personal promotion appeal of officials. As a provider of the regional system, local government should be based on a broader perspective, not just political promotion. Therefore, on the basis of affirming the performance appraisal system, we should improve the performance appraisal standards and system of local officials; (2) the shortcomings of market mechanism itself will increase the investment risk of enterprises, and there are differences in the levels of different property rights, different marketization levels, and different regions' enterprises' access to government financial policy signals and the positive effects of using the policy, which is not conducive to competition The realization of the principle of contesting neutrality. We should improve the scientific decision-making mechanism of local government's financial expenditure, so that the financial expenditure policy can III create a competitive position of equal market subject for enterprises of all kinds of property rights and all kinds of regions under different marketization levels in the market; (3) the fluctuation of total financial behavior and structure is conducive to improving the complexity of industrial technology and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. To strengthen the coordination and cooperation of financial expenditure in the eastern, central and western regions, the less developed regions need to further strengthen the optimization of financial expenditure structure, improve the efficiency of the use of financial public service expenditure, and promote the investment activities of enterprises in the region and surrounding areas. Keywords：Appeal of political achievements; Fluctuation of financial expenditure; Investment level of enterprise 湖南科技大学硕士学位论文 IV 目 录 摘要 ...................... I ABSTRACT ......... II 1 绪论 .................. 1 1.1研究背景 . 1 1.2研究问题与研究意义 ............ 2 1.2.1研究问题 ..................... 2 1.2.2研究意义 ..................... 2 1.3研究思路与方法 .................... 3 1.4研究的创新点 ........................ 4 1.5重要概念界定 ........................ 5 1.5.1政绩诉求 ..................... 5 1.5.2财政支出 ..................... 6 1.5.3企业投资水平 ............. 6 2 相关研究文献综述 .......................... 8 2.1企业投资 . 8 2.2政府干预与企业投资 ............ 9 2.3政绩诉求与经济增长 .......... 10 2.4文献述评 .............................. 11 3 理论分析与研究假设 .................... 13 3.1相关理论基础 ...................... 13 3.1.1政治锦标赛理论 ....... 13 3.1.2政府干预理论 ...........