I 摘要 在“互联网+检测”时代，以C机构为代表的检测机构已经相继与各大电商平台 进行合作，成为其指定的官方检测机构，这种合作模式也受到不同类型检测机构 的青睐。随着第三方检测机构的不断进入，越来越多的检测机构参与市场竞争。 为了快速抢占市场份额，很多机构以低价方式来抢夺客户资源，因此，导致许多 机构出现大量客户流失的情况。本文通过对国有检测C机构当前客户流失状况进 行分析，建立了基于XGBoost的客户流失预测模型。与此同时，在C机构流失状 况分析和验证的基础上，结合实际的交易订单情况，对即将流失客户制定管理响 应策略。 本文首先以C机构某段时间内线上检测业务已有的历史数据为研究对象，以 客户关系管理和客户流失理论为支撑，对客户流失前的历史数据进行分析，并提 取能够预测客户流失的一系列的特征。然后，基于XGBoost算法构建预测模型， 预测出潜在的流失客户。此外，本文还根据XGBoost模型反馈的特征重要性参数， 反推出导致客户流失的主要因素，并对这些因素进行有效地分析，从而为后续文 中给出一对一管理策略指明方向。 其次，对于检测机构而言，检测资源往往是稀缺且有限的，无法针对所有潜 在流失客户都采取最大化的激励策略。为了平衡质检资源不足和挽留激励措施之 间的矛盾关系，并最大限度地利用有限的检测资源，本文使用RFM理论对客户价 值进行评估。与此同时，为了进一步地掌握和了解客户集中分布的趋势，本文采 用了K-means聚类算法对客户进行聚类分析，并根据聚类结果来确定客户细分类 别，然后针对不同的客户类型采取不同的针对性和可操作的管理应对策略。 最后，本文分别从流失客户挽留和客户关系管理服务改进两个方面制定相应 的管理应对策略。其中，本文结合客户流失因素，对不同类型的流失客户采取差 异化的挽留策略。与此同时，对内外部因素导致的客户流失也提出了改进策略， 以进一步提升客户满意度及忠诚度。本文不仅解决了机构面临的实际性问题，而 且为整个检测行业线上业务如何预测客户流失、挽回客户流失及提升客户满意度 提供了强有力的参考价值。 关键词：检测行业，客户流失预测，RFM理论，管理对策，XGBoost算法 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT In the era of "Internet + detection", testing organizations represented by C agencies have been collaborating with major e-commerce platforms. They have become their designated official testing institutions. This cooperation mode is also favored by different types of testing institutions. With the continuous participation of the third-party testing institutions, more and more testing institutions participate in the market competition. In order to seize the market share as soon as possible, many agencies seize customers at low price, which has led to a large number of customer being lost. Therefore, by analyzing the current customer churn situation of state-owned inspection C institutions, a customer churn prediction model was built by using XGBoost algorithm. At the same time, based on the analysis and verification of the churn situation of C institutions, and combined with the actual transaction order situation, a management strategies for the customers being lost was designed. Firstly, this paper analyzes the historical data before customer churn, and extracts a series of features that can predict customer churn, by taking the historical data of online detection business in a certain period of time of C institutions as the research object and the support of customer relationship management and customer churn theory. Then, a prediction model is built based on XGBoost algorithm to predict the potential lost customers. In addition, according to the important characteristic parameters fed back by XGBoost model, this paper infers the main factors that lead to customer churn, and analyzes these factors effectively, which could point out the direction for the corresponding one-to-one management strategy in the following paper. Secondly, for testing institutions, testing resources are often scarce and limited, and it is impossible to adopt the same incentive strategy for all potential lost customers. In order to balance the relationship between the lack of quality inspection resources and the retention of incentives, and to maximize the use of limited detection resources, this paper uses RFM theory model to segment customer according to customer value and type. At the same time, in order to further grasp and understand the customer concentration distribution trend, this paper uses K-Means clustering algorithm to cluster the customers, determines the customer segmentation categories according to the clustering results, and then takes different targeted and operational management ABSTRACT III strategies for different types of customers. Finally, according to the retention of customer lost and improvement of customer relationship management services, corresponding management strategies were designed. Among them, combining with the factors of customer churn, this paper adopts different retention strategies for churn customers of different types. At the same time, in order to further improve customer satisfaction and loyalty, the paper also puts forward the improvement strategy for the customer churn caused by internal and external factors. This paper not only solves the practical problems faced by the organization, but also provides a powerful reference value for how to predict customer churn ,retrieve customer churn and improve customer satisfaction. Keywords: Testing industry, Customer churn forecast, RFM theory, Management Countermeasures, XGBoost algorithm 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 研究现状 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 客户流失应用领域的研究现状 ............................................................ 3 1.2.2 客户流失预测方法的研究现状 ............................................................ 4 1.3 研究内容 ............................................................................................................ 7 1.4 研究思路及技术路线 ........................................................................................ 8 1.4.1 研究思路 ................................................................................................ 8 1.4.2 技术路线 ................................................................................................ 8 第二章 相关研究理论介绍 .......................................................................................... 10 2.1 客户关系管理理论 .......................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 客户关系管理的形成与发展 .............................................................. 10 2.1.2 客户关系管理的内涵 .......................................................................... 10 2.1.3 客户关系管理的战略意义 ................................................................... 11 2.2 客户忠诚度理论 .............................................................................................. 12 2.2.1 客户忠诚理论的形成与发展 .............................................................. 12 2.2.2 客户忠诚管理的内涵 .......................................................................... 13 2.2.3 客户忠诚管理实施的必要性 .............................................................. 13 2.3 客户流失管理理论 .......................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 客户流失管理的含义 .......................................................................... 14 2.3.2 客户流失管理的因素 .......................................................................... 15 2.3.3 客户流失管理的重要性分析 .............................................................. 15 2.4 本章小结 .......................................................................................................... 16 第三章 C机构线上客户流失现状分析 .............