-I- 摘要 为深入贯彻落实“网络强国”战略思想，加快网络基础设施建设，我国各运营 商快速部署实施宽带网络在城市和农村的全方位覆盖，宽带用户的普及率大幅提升。 尽管宽带业务实现快速增长，但随着市场环境及应用需求不断发生变化，用户对于 网络质量及服务的要求越来越高、需求多样化、个性化，如果通信运营商单纯依靠 投资成本拉动和降低资费抢占市场显然已经无法站稳脚跟了。这就要求我们从投资 驱动型、资费拉动型向创新产品和服务驱动型转变，由粗放式发展向集约式经营模 式转变。 中国电信B公司宽带业务面临较大的竞争压力，严重的宽带客户流失问题亟待 解决，存量用户的保有变成稳固公司价值的关键点。中国电信B公司宽带业务在客 户全生命周期管理中有所缺陷，没有细分客户、深层次挖掘客户流失原因进行有效 预警防范流失。怎样有效预警，保留住可能流失的宽带客户变成B公司急需化解的 问题。 本文经过对中国电信B公司在发展宽带业务期间面对存量客户流失的实际情况 展开探究分析，借助数据挖掘技术针对B公司宽带流失客户展开深层次挖掘分类， 构建客户流失预警模型，聚类分析得出客户流失的原因，针对性的提出更为精准、 行之有效的客户维系对策，延长存量客户生命周期。维系举措包括依据通信运营商 市场驱动因素：产品、服务、资费、形象、渠道、回馈，立足客户导向，细致划分 客户的类型，并为每类客户提供相应的产品和服务。最终将研究成果应用于实践， 取得较好的存量保有效果，中国电信B公司宽带市场地位得到进一步巩固。为固化 预警模型和对策实施应用，提出了一系列保障措施。首先，改善内部管理程序，强 化客户满意感；其次，利用提升客户忠诚度，稳固与保留住客户。并且，结合公司 内部文化构建与维系经理的考核体系，为维系挽留客户措施的推行提供保障管理， 保证本文给出的客户维系挽留营销措施得以高效推行。进而完成公司的长效运作， 实现减少B公司宽带客户流失情况，稳步提升宽带市场份额的目标，对理论分析与 实际运用均拥有探究价值。 关键词：中国电信B公司；宽带客户；数据挖掘；流失预警；客户维系挽留 Abstract -III- Abstract In order to thoroughly implement the strategic idea of "Network Power" and accelerate the construction of network infrastructure, Chinese communications operators have rapidly deployed broadband networks to cover all urban and rural areas, and the penetration rate of broadband users has increased significantly. In spite of the rapid growth of wideband businesses, the demands of users for network quality and services become increasingly demanding, demand diversification and personalization, as the market environment and application requirements change constantly, if the communication operators simply rely on investment, cost-pulling and reduced capital expense to grab the market, apparently unable to stand firm. It would require that we shift from an investment drive, to a capital, to innovation and a service drive, from a bold development to an intensive business model. Broadband business of China Telecom Company B is facing great competitive pressure. Serious loss of broadband customers needs to be solved urgently, and the retention of existing users becomes the key point to stabilize the value of the company. The broadband business of China Telecom Company B has some defects in the whole life cycle management of customers. It does not segment customers and dig into the reasons for customer loss in depth for effective early warning and prevention. How to effectively warn and retain the potential loss of broadband customers has become an urgent problem for B company to solve. This article through to the China Telecom Company B during the period of developing broadband service to the actual situation of the stock of the customer loss analysis on inquiry, with the help of data mining technology on company B broadband customers deep mining classification, building customer churn warning model, clustering analysis the reasons of the loss of customers, and targeted put forward countermeasures for more precise and effective customer support, and extend the stock of customer life cycle. The maintenance measures include six driving factors that support brand connotation according to communication operators: product, service, tariff, image, channel 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -IV- and feedback. Based on customer orientation, customers are carefully divided into different types and corresponding products and services are provided for each type of customers. Finally, the research results were applied to practice, and good stock retention effect was achieved. The broadband market position of China Telecom B was further consolidated. In order to solidify the early warning model and implement the countermeasures, a series of safeguard measures are put forward. First, improve internal management procedures to enhance customer satisfaction; Secondly, use to enhance customer loyalty, firm and retain customers. In addition, combined with the internal culture construction of the company and the salesman evaluation system, it provides guarantee management for the implementation of customer retention measures and ensures the effective implementation of customer retention marketing measures given in this paper. Then, the company can complete the long-term operation, reduce the loss of broadband customers of company B, and gradually increase the broadband market share in a stable way, which is of great value for theoretical analysis and practical application. Keywords: broadband customer; cluster analysis; customer churn;customer retention 目 录 -V- 目 录 摘要 ....... I? ABSTRACT .......................... III? 第1章 绪 论 ....................... 1? 1.1 选题背景及研究意义 . 1? 1.1.1 选题背景 ............... 1? 1.1.2 研究意义 ............... 1? 1.2 国内外研究现状及综述 ............................ 2? 1.2.1 国外研究现状及综述 .......................... 2? 1.2.2 国内研究现状及综述 .......................... 3? 1.3 研究内容和研究方法 . 5? 1.3.1 研究内容 ............... 5? 1.3.2 研究方法 ............... 5? 第2章 相关理论概述 ............. 6? 2.1 客户流失 ..................... 6? 2.1.1 定义 ....................... 6? 2.1.2 客户流失的主要类型 .......................... 6? 2.2 客户关系管理理论 ..... 7? 2.2.1 客户服务满意度 ... 8? 2.2.2 客户忠诚度 ........... 8? 2.3 客户生命周期理论 ..... 9? 2.4 数据挖掘相关理论 ... 10? 2.4.1 数据挖掘的定义 . 10? 2.4.2 数据挖掘的步骤 . 10? 2.4.3 K-means聚类算法介绍 ...................... 11? 2.5 客户维系挽留 ........... 12? 2.6 本章小结 ................... 12? 第3章 中国电信B公司宽带业务现状分析 ... 14? 3.1 中国宽带市场整体发展现状 .................. 14? 3.2 中国电信B公司现状分析 ...................... 15? 3.2.1 中国电信B公司简介 ....................... 15? 3.2.2 竞争对手基本情况分析 .................... 16? 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -VI- 3.2.3 中国电信B公司客户流失现状 ....... 16? 3.3 中国电信B公司宽带业务发展存在的问题分析 ................. 18? 3.3.1 中国电信B公司宽带业务SWOT分析 ......................... 18? 3.3.2 产品策略现状及问题 ........................ 19? 3.3.3 价格策略现状及问题 ........................ 19? 3.4 用户流失后果分析 ... 22? 3.4.1 对公司收益产生不利影响 ................ 22? 3.4.2 对公司声誉产生不利影响 ................ 23? 3.4.3 对公司日常工作产生不利影晌 ........ 24? 3.4.4 对培养员工忠诚度产生不利影响 .... 24? 3.5 本章小结 ................... 24? 第4章 中国电信B公司宽带客户流失预警模型建立 .................. 25? 4.1 样本选取及数据洞察 .............................. 25? 4.2 预警模型建立 ........... 26? 4.2.1 数据预处理 ......... 26? 4.2.2 变量选择 ............. 27? 4.2.3 抽样平衡 ............. 29? 4.2.4 挖掘工具 ............. 29? 4.2.5 分类聚类算法 ..... 30? 4.2.6 模型建立 ............. 31? 4.3 模型结果输出 ........... 33? 4.3.1 模型输出规则 ..... 33? 4.3.2 模型结果输出 ..... 33? 4.3.3 模型评估 ............. 35? 4.4 本章小结 ................... 36? 第5章 中国电信B公司宽带客户流失对策研究 .......................... 37? 5.1 宽带流失预警客户维系对策 .................. 37? 5.1.1 客户生命周期的维系策略 ................ 37? 5.1.2 六大驱动因素的维系重点 ................ 38? 5.1.3 细分客户的维系策略 ........................ 39? 5.1.4 人群划分与选择的维系策略 ............ 40? 5.2 客户维系流程 ........... 41? 5.2.1 客户维系活动发起 ............................ 41? 5.2.2 维系策略 ............. 41? 目 录 -VII- 5.2.3 客户维系活