棚户区是指在城市区域中那些居住密度较大、建筑物质量不高且人均居住的 面积比较小、基础及服务设施配套不全的社区。当下，在城市中部分居民仍然处于 低收入状态，在固定资产方面的购买能力不高，但低收入群体本身却有着改善居住 条件的紧迫需求。城市对棚户区的开发建设，一方面能够有效的促进城市房地产产 业的健康发展，拉动固定资产投资和促进消费升级，为GDP的增长贡献力量；另一 方面，可以促进民生发展，有效的改善城市中低收入群体的住房条件，为和谐社会 的建设贡献力量。因此，保障性住房的开发已经成为了改善低收入群体住房条件和 实现社会公平正义的主要途径，也是加快城市城镇化建设，提高城市综合实力和形 象的重要措施。 本文旨在从棚改项目的单一融资的逻辑起点之上循序导出对商业银行给予棚 改项目的贷款风险如何评估和风险如何防范与化解两个中心问题的理解和阐述， 从而提出有益的政策建议和路径选择，并通过研究债权主体及其背后各利益相关 方相互博弈平衡后所产生的融资风险，厘清棚改融资风险的生成现状与化解之途， 为棚改风险的识别、问题、成因及预防提供现实指导，优化风险管控的措施，提升 风险防控的效果，为银行降低风险，提高资金使用安全水平提供帮助。 本研究的主要研究成果是对L村棚户区改建项目贷款进行了风险评估调查， 发现承贷公司棚改项目属于轻度风险项目，承贷公司被划分为B类客户，意味着 需对项目与承贷公司的风险点进行全面分析，找到风险问题的表征，及其产生的原 因并提出化解对策，以保证项目贷款的安全。最后在研究成果的基础上对该项目贷 款风险的问题、成因及对策进行了探讨，研究认为项目的风险点主要集中在观经济 及政策风险、有息债务与财政补助不确定风险、管理风险及效益风险；产生风险点 的原因是政府公共项目贷款评审宽松、政、银、企信息不对称、棚改项目贷款风险 管理预防机制缺位、棚改项目贷款动态监测机制不完善。提出的建议对策是完善棚 改项目贷款政策风险预防化解策略、提高银行谈判及博弈能力、加强棚改项目贷中 风险防控机制建设、提高对棚改项目潜在收益风险预防能力。 关键词:棚户区，贷款，风险评估，问题，对策 湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 2 Abstract Shantytowns are those communities with high density, low quality buildings, small per capita living area and incomplete infrastructure and service facilities in urban areas. At present, some residents in the city are still in a low-income state, the ability to buy fixed assets is not high, but the low-income groups themselves have an urgent need to improve living conditions. City development and construction of shantytowns, on the one hand, can effectively promote the healthy development of urban real estate industry, pull fixed assets investment and promote consumption upgrading, contribute to the growth of GDP； on the other hand, can promote the development of people's livelihood, effectively improve the city The housing conditions of low-income groups contribute to the construction of a harmonious society. Therefore, the development of affordable housing has become the main way to improve the housing conditions of low-income groups and achieve social equity and justice, and is also an important measure to speed up the construction of urban urbanization and improve the comprehensive strength and image of the city. The purpose of this paper is to derive from the logical starting point of the single financing of the shed reform project how to assess the loan risk of commercial banks and how to prevent and resolve the two central problems, so as to put forward some useful policy suggestions and path choices. Level to help. The main research result of this study is to carry on the risk assessment investigation to the L village shantytown reconstruction project loan, found that the loan company shed reform project belongs to the mild risk project, the loan company is divided into B kinds of customers, means to carry on the comprehensive analysis to the project and the loan company risk point, finds the risk question representation, and the reason which produces and proposes the solution countermeasure, in order to guarantee the project loan safety. Finally, based on the research results, the paper discusses the problems, causes and countermeasures of the loan risk of the project, and finds that the risk points of the project are mainly focused on the economic and policy risks, the uncertain risks of interest- bearing debt and financial subsidies, and the management Risk and benefit risk； the reason for the risk point is that the government public project loan evaluation is loose, the government, bank, enterprise information asymmetry, the shed reform project loan risk management prevention mechanism is absent, the shed reform project loan dynamic monitoring mechanism is not perfect. The proposed countermeasures are to improve the strategy of preventing and defusing the risk of loan policy, to improve the ability of bank negotiation and game, to strengthen the construction of risk prevention and control mechanism in the loan of greenhouse reform project, and to improve the ability of preventing the potential income risk of the project. Keywords: Shantytowns, Loans, Risk assessments, Problems, Countermeasures 湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 3 目 录 摘要 ........................................................................ 1 Abstract ...................................................................... 2 目 录 ......................................................................... 3 第1章 绪论 ................................................................... 5 1.1 研究背景 .............................................................. 5 1.2 研究意义 .............................................................. 6 1.2.1 理论意义 ....................................................... 6 1.2.2 现实意义 ....................................................... 6 1.3 国内外研究现状 ........................................................ 7 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ................................................... 7 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ................................................... 8 1.4 研究评述 ............................................................. 10 1.5 研究内容与技术路线 ................................................... 10 1.6研究方法及创新 ....................................................... 11 1.6.1研究方法 ....................................................... 11 1.6.2研究创新 ....................................................... 12 第2章 相关概念界定和理论基础 ................................................. 13 2.1 相关概念界定 ......................................................... 13 2.1.1 棚户区改建 .................................................... 13 2.1.2棚户区改建融资模式 ........................................... 13 2.1.3棚户区改建项目贷款 ........................................... 14 2.2 理论基础 ............................................................. 15 2.2.1 项目贷款风险评估理论 .......................................... 15 2.2.2 风险评价指标及评价体系构建 .................................... 16 第3章 C银行棚户区改建项目贷款风险评价 ....................................... 19 3.1 项目背景介绍 ......................................................... 19 3.1.1 项目基本情况 .................................................. 19 3.1.2 承贷企业基本情况 .............................................. 19 湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 4 3.1.3 承贷企业财务情况 .............................................. 20 3.1.4 承贷企业财务报表评价 .......................................... 23 3.2 贷款效益风险分析 ..................................................... 24 3.2.1 项目风险测评系统原理 .......................................... 24 3.2.2细化风险指标计算统计 ........................................... 25 3.2.3棚户区贷款项目风险评价 ......................................... 28 3.3棚户区贷款项目风险分析 ............................................... 30 3.3.1经营管理风险 ................................................... 30 3.3.2项目建设风险 ................................................... 31 3.3.3项目市场风险 ................................................... 31 3.3.4项目偿债风险 ................................................... 32 3.4 C行棚户区贷款项目风险管理小结 ........................................ 32 第4章 C银行棚改项目贷款