高速公路的建设和发展对社会和经济的进步发挥着重要的支撑和保障作用。但高速 公路的投资往往数额巨大，政府单方面的投入已经难以承担，与此同时大量闲置的社会 资本则亟待被有效利用。因此，政府和社会资本双方的合作（PPP模式）应运而生，并 在当前形势的推动下快速发展。 高速公路项目具有投资数额大和回报期限长的特点，因此需要对项目产生影响的诸 多因素进行充分严谨的分析和评估，作为投资决策的基础。本文结合具体案例，通过查 阅资料和实地调查，掌握了影响范围内的社会经济现状和产业结构，以及发展趋势对交 通量的影响程度，据此预测拟建项目在运营期的交通量，结合车型比例，套用收费标准， 测算运营收入；通过研究项目的实施对降低运营成本、旅客时间节约和减少交通事故等 方面的影响，量化项目对国民经济产生的效益。 结合项目的在评价期的投资支出，包括建设投资、运营成本、税费等，获取财务内 部收益率、财务净现值、投资回收期等指标，分别计算项目的经济效益和国民经济效益， 从财务和宏观经济的角度评价项目的可行性。分析不利情况下的内部收益率等指标，来 判定项目的抗风险能力。另外通过对项目工程方案以及沿线社会、经济、环境等要素的 调查分析，从社会影响、互适性和社会风险等方面进行研究，系统的考察项目在评价期 产生的综合效益和潜在的社会影响，对拟建项目进行社会评价。 本文通过对实际案例的分析，研究了在建设期和运营期影响项目投资效益的各项因 素，希望以此为高速公路的投资决策提供基础。 关键词： 交通量预测；运营收入；投资支出；经济效益；社会效益 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第II页 Abstract At the present stage in our country, the construction and improvement of highway network is of great significance to economic and social development. However, the investment of expressway is often huge, and the government can not afford to invest unilaterally. At the same time, a large amount of idle social capital needs to be used effectively. Therefore, the cooperation between the government and the social capital (PPP mode) has begun to blossom. Highway project not only has a large amount of investment but also a long period of return. It needs very precise and prudent decision-making. It is necessary to fully analyze and evaluate the factors that affect the project investment. Based on the analysis of specific cases, this paper calculates the forecast traffic volume, operating costs and other indicators in highway project investment, and calculates the investment expenditure and operating income in combination with toll standards, construction costs, interest rates, taxes and other aspects, and then analyzes the investment benefits. Through the study of the impact of the implementation of the project on reducing operating costs, passenger time savings and traffic accidents, the benefits of the project to the national economy are quantified. In this paper, first of all, on the basis of relevant information and field survey data, the traffic flow of the proposed project in operation is predicted. Then, combined with the vehicle type ratio, the operating income is calculated by applying the charging standards, and then the investment expenditure of the project, including construction investment, operating expenses, taxes and fees, is calculated. Finally, the financial internal income is obtained. Rate index and combined financial net present value and investment recovery period, respectively, to evaluate the economic and social benefits of the project. The internal rate of return under normal and unfavorable conditions is analyzed to determine the investment benefit and risk resistance of 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第III页 the project. In addition, through the investigation and analysis of the project scheme and the social, economic, environmental and other factors along the line, from the social impact, compatibility and social risks, to determine whether the investment can achieve the desired comprehensive benefits. Based on the analysis of practical cases, this paper studies the factors that affect the investment benefit of the project during the construction and operation period, hoping to provide a basis for the investment decision-making of expressway. Key words : Vehicle flow forecasting; operating income; investment expenditure; economic benefits; social benefit 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第IV页 目 录 第1章 绪论 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1选题背景及意义 ...................................................... 1 1.1.1选题背景 ........................................................ 1 1.1.2选题意义 ........................................................ 1 1.2研究内容及方法 ...................................................... 2 1.2.1研究内容 ........................................................ 2 1.2.2研究方法 ........................................................ 3 第2章 项目概况 .................................................................................................................. 5 2.1项目建设背景 ........................................................ 5 2.2项目简介 ............................................................ 5 2.3合作模式 ............................................................ 7 2.3.1项目计划采用PPP模式 ............................................ 7 2.3.2采用PPP模式的优势 .............................................. 7 第3章 项目影响区社会经济现状及发展 ............................................................................ 8 3.1项目影响区经济现状 .................................................. 8 3.1.1间接影响区 ...................................................... 8 3.1.2直接影响区 ...................................................... 8 3.2影响区社会经济发展规划 ............................................. 13 第4章 项目影响区交通和资源调查 .................................................................................. 16 4.1综合交通现状 ....................................................... 16 4.1.1现状公路网 ..................................................... 16 4.1.2现状铁路网 ..................................................... 19 西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文 第V页 4.2综合交通规划 ....................................................... 20 4.2.1公路网规划 ..................................................... 20 4.2.2铁路网规划 ..................................................... 21 4.3区域煤炭资源调查 ................................................... 22 4.3.1.陕西省煤炭资源情况 ............................................. 22 4.4煤炭运输路径调查 ................................................... 27 4.5区域交通量调查 ..................................................... 30 4.5.1调查思路 ....................................................... 30 4.5.2调查数据 ....................................................... 31 第5章 交通量预测 ................................................................................................................ 37 5.1预测思路及方法 ..................................................... 37 5.2趋势交通量预测 ..................................................... 39 5.2.1交通量增长率的确定 ............................................. 39 5.2.2趋势交通量预测 ................................................. 42 5.3诱增交通量预测 ..................................................... 42 5.4煤运交通量预测 ..................................................... 43 5.5交通量预测结果汇总 ................................................. 43 第6章 经济效益分析 .......................................................................................................... 44 6.1项目评价期 ......................................................... 45 6.2项目投资 ........................................................... 45 6.3评价指标 ........................................................... 45 6.4评价参数 ........................................................... 45 6.5财务评价 ........................................................... 48 第7章 社会效益分析 .......................................................................................................... 53 7.1经济评价 .......................................................