随着中国经济的飞速发展，中国国内的高铁事业也有了翻天覆地的变化，中 国无论是在高速铁路的建设技术，还是项目施工风险管理上都有了长足的发展， 并已跻身世界先进行列。在高速铁路建设方面，创新了一系列新工艺、新工法， 在通信工程、信号工程、电力工程、电气化工程等“四电”工程的建设以及实施 过程中，更是引入并实施了“四电”系统集成这一全新的建设模式，为我国高速 铁路核心系统的建设品质提供了强有力的保障。 作为高速铁路项目工程建设期的最后一环，“四电”工程是高速铁路工程项 目“联调联试”前的一项重要内容，其建设工期的风险管理及控制直接关系到高 速铁路项目“联调联试”的时间进度安排，甚至影响到该高速铁路工程项目是否 能如期开通运营。 近年来，国内高水平学术期刊上发表了许多关于高速铁路工程建设项目风险 管理与控制研究的相关文献，显示出近几年来对高速铁路工程项目的风险研究越 来越重视。但目前，对于高速铁路工程项目的风险研究大多限于整个工程项目或 是路基、桥梁以及隧道等土建专业的工程项目建设的风险管理与控制，针对高速 铁路“四电”工程的风险管理及控制的相关研究较为缺失。 论文将从我国高速铁路“四电”系统集成工程项目建设中工程风险管理现状 切入，对其中存在的不足进行研究分析，本文从分析这些特点入手，对高速铁路 “四电”集成项目施工风险进行识别，并以已完工程——郑徐高铁的“四电”集 成项目案例为研究对象，建立层次分析模型，并运用模糊综合评价法、层次分析 法等研究方法进行风险评估。最后，根据评价结果提出对策建议，并以此展开全 文的“四电”工程风险管理研究。 关键词：高速铁路“四电”工程系统集成风险管理 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文高铁“四电”工程的风险管理研究——以郑徐高铁“四电”工程为例 4 Abstract WiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy,China'sdomestichigh-speed railwayindustryhasalsoundergonetremendouschanges.Chinahasmadegreat progressinboththeconstructiontechnologyofhigh-speedrailwayandproject constructionriskmanagement,andhasbecomeoneoftheworld'sadvancedranks.In theaspectofhigh-speedrailwayconstruction,aseriesofnewtechnologiesandnew constructionmethodshavebeeninnovated.Intheconstructionandimplementation processofcommunicationengineering,signalengineering,powerengineering, electrificationengineeringandother"fourelectricity"projects,thenewconstruction modeof"fourelectricity"systemintegrationhasbeenintroducedandimplemented, whichprovidesastrongguaranteefortheconstructionqualityofthecoresystemof high-speedrailwayinChina. Asthelastlinkoftheconstructionperiodofhigh-speedrailwayproject,the"four power"projectisanimportantcontentbeforethe"jointcommissioningandtest"of high-speedrailwayproject.Theriskmanagementandcontroloftheconstructionperiod isdirectlyrelatedtothetimeschedulearrangementofthe"jointcommissioningand test"ofhigh-speedrailwayproject,andevenaffectswhetherthehigh-speedrailway projectcanbeputintooperationasscheduled. Inrecentyears,alotofrelatedliteratureaboutriskmanagementandcontrolof high-speedrailwayconstructionprojectshasbeenpublishedindomestichigh-level academicjournals,whichshowsthatmoreandmoreattentionhasbeenpaidtotherisk researchofhigh-speedrailwayprojectsinrecentyears.However,atpresent,therisk researchofhigh-speedrailwayprojectismostlylimitedtotheriskmanagementand controlofthewholeprojectortheconstructionofsubgrade,bridge,tunnelandother civilengineeringprojects,andtherelevantresearchontheriskmanagementandcontrol of"fourelectricity"projectofhigh-speedrailwayisrelativelylacking. Thispaperwillstartfromthecurrentsituationofprojectriskmanagementinthe constructionof"fourelectricity"systemintegrationprojectofhigh-speedrailwayin China,andstudyandanalyzetheexistingshortcomings.Startingfromtheanalysisof thesecharacteristics,thispaperidentifiestheconstructionriskof"fourelectricity" integrationprojectofhigh-speedrailway,andtakesthecompletedproject--thecaseof "fourelectricity"integrationprojectofZhengzhou-Xuzhouhigh-speedrailwayasthe researchobject,establishesAHPmodel,andtheuseoffuzzycomprehensiveevaluation, AHPandotherresearchmethodsforriskassessment.Finally,accordingtothe evaluationresults,thepaperputsforwardcountermeasuresandsuggestions,andcarries outthefulltextof"fourelectricity"projectriskmanagementresearch. KEYWORDS：high-speedrailway；"Fourelectricity"project；systemintegration； riskmanagement. 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文高铁“四电”工程的风险管理研究——以郑徐高铁“四电”工程为例 5 目录 1引言.............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义.................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景......................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义......................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状.................................................................................................3 1.2.1国外研究现状..............................................................................................3 1.2.2国内研究现状..............................................................................................5 1.3研究内容、方法及思路.....................................................................................9 1.3.1研究内容......................................................................................................9 1.3.2研究方法....................................................................................................10 1.3.3研究思路....................................................................................................11 2相关概念与理论基础...............................................................................................13 2.1项目风险管理的概念.......................................................................................13 2.1.1风险与工程项目风险................................................................................13 2.1.2风险管理....................................................................................................14 2.2工程风险管理的内容.......................................................................................14 2.2.1风险识别....................................................................................................15 2.2.2风险评价....................................................................................................16 2.2.3风险应对....................................................................................................17 2.3风险管理的方法...............................................................................................18 2.3.1风险识别方法............................................................................................18 2.3.2风险评价方法............................................................................................19 2.3.3风险应对策略............................................................................................19 2.4系统集成模式概述...........................................................................................21 2.4.1系统集成的定义........................................................................................21 2.4.2系统集成的优势........................................................................................21 2.4.3系统集成的原则........................................................................................22 3高铁“四电”工程风险识别及评价.......................................................................24 3.1高铁“四电”工程项目的特点和风险特征...................................................24 3.2高铁“四电”工程项目风险识别...................................................................26 3.2.1高速铁路“四电”系统集成组成............................................................26 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文高铁“四电”工程的风险管理研究——以郑徐高铁“四电”工程为例 6 3.2.2系统集成基本风险因素............................................................................27 3.3高铁“四电”工程项目风险评价.........................................