房地产行业是我国经济的重要组成部分，其具有投资数额大、资金回款 周期长、风险性高等行业特点。同时，在经营房地产项目过程中会受到政策、 经济、社会等多种方面因素影响，如果在经营前投资方案的考虑不周都会对 企业造成严重损失。目前，调控作为主旋律的政策环境，融资难致使现金流 压力大的经济常态、竞争激烈的行业现状、成本持续上涨的项目情况等条件 都考验着投资方案的可行性与优劣程度。以上种种的严苛事实，需要在项目 的投资决策阶段通过优化投资方案，从而降低项目风险，提高项目收益。 本文利用PEST工具分析了哈尔滨市房地产市场现状，说明哈尔滨KC 项目存在着投资的可行性，然后阐述了投资决策的分类及特点，以及投资决 策阶段的定义和主要工作内容。在此基础上，优化KC项目的投资方案，具 体包括：首先对哈尔滨市KC项目的原有投资方案进行分析，阐述了原方案 的制定步骤以及原方案所考虑的影响销售的因素，预估出原方案的效益情况。 然后通过询问专业人士和调查问卷的方式，找出实际影响KC项目销售的因 素，通过模糊综合评价法确定这些因素对于销售的影响程度，筛选出原方案 中所忽略的因素。最后，根据这些因素改进项目投资方案，并利用多元线性 回归的方法预测出改进前后的经济效益情况，并进行对比。 本文作者通过研究生阶段所学的知识理论解决其在工作中所遇到的问 题，将理论与现实紧紧结合，真正做到学以致用。论文旨在利用相关科学理 论以及分析工具优化哈尔滨KC项目的原投资决策方案，从而增加KC项目 的经济效益，同时为以后的项目投资决策提供有效依据。 关键词：投资决策；模糊综合评价；多元线性回归；PEST分析；产品销售 因素 哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文 - II - Abstract The real estate industry is an important part of our country's economy, which has the characteristics of large investment amount, long capital return period, and high risk industry. At the same time, in the course of managing real estate projects, it will be affected by many factors such as policy, economy, and society. If the investment plan before the operation is not considered properly, it will cause serious losses to the enterprise. At present, regulation as the main theme of the policy environment, the difficulty in financing the cash flow pressure of the economic normal, the fierce competition of the current situation, the cost of projects continue to rise and other conditions test the feasibility and merits of the investment plan. All these harsh facts need to optimize the investment plan in the investment decision-making stage of the project to reduce the project risk and increase the project revenue. This paper analyzes the real estate market in Harbin by means of PEST, explains the feasibility of investment in the KC project in Harbin, and then expounds the classification and characteristics of investment decision, as well as the definition of investment decision stage and the main work content. On this basis, we optimize the investment plan of the KC project, including: First, we analyze the original investment plan of the KC project in Harbin, and explain the steps of the original plan and the factors that affect sales considered in the original plan. Estimate the benefits of the original plan. Then, by asking professionals and questionnaires, we find out the factors that actually affect the sales of KC project, determine the impact of these factors on sales through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and select the factors neglected in the original plan. Finally, the project investment plan is improved according to these factors, and the economic benefits before and after the improvement are predicted and compared by the multivariate linear regression method. Through the knowledge theory learned by graduate students, the author solves the problems encountered in his work, combines theory and reality closely, and truly achieves the use of learning. The purpose of the paper is to optimize the original investment decision plan of Harbin KC project with "empirical theory" 哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文 - III - and "position theory" as the leading theory using relevant scientific theories and analytical tools, thus improving the success rate of the KC project and increasing the benefits of the KC project. At the same time, it provides an effective basis for future investment decisions. Keywords: investment decisions, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, multiple linear regression, PEST analysis, factors of product sales 哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文 - IV - 目 录 摘要 ................................................................................................................. I Abstract ............................................................................................................. II 第1章 绪论 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义 ............................................................................... 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ........................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ........................................................................................... 3 1.2 文献综述 .................................................................................................. 4 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 国内外研究现状总结 ........................................................................ 7 1.3 研究思路及方法 ...................................................................................... 8 1.3.1 研究思路 ........................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法 ........................................................................................... 9 1.4 本文基本框架 .......................................................................................... 9 第2章 哈尔滨市场的PEST分析和投资分类 ............................................... 10 2.1 哈尔滨房地产市场PEST分析 .............................................................. 10 2.1.1 政治环境分析 ..................................................................................11 2.1.2 经济环境分析 ................................................................................. 13 2.1.3 社会环境分析 ................................................................................. 14 2.1.4 技术环境分析 ................................................................................. 15 2.2 投资决策分类及其特点 ......................................................................... 18 2.3 房产项目中的投资工作内容 ................................................................. 19 2.4 本章小结 ................................................................................................ 19 第3章 哈尔滨KC项目原投资方案的分析 ................................................... 20 3.1 项目投资决策过程阐述 ......................................................................... 20 3.2 原投资方案中涉及的因素分析 ............................................................. 21 3.2.1 指标确定的原则.............................................................................. 21 3.2.2 指标因素的建立.............................................................................. 22 3.3 哈尔滨KC项目的原投资方案 .............................................................. 25 3.3.1 KC项目开发背景 ........................................................................... 25 哈尔滨工业大学工商管理硕士学位论文 - V - 3.3.1 KC项目的原投资方案内容 ............................................................ 27 3.3.2 KC项目原投资方案效益预估 ........................................................ 28 3.4 本章小结 ................................................................................................ 30 第4章 影响KC项目产品销售因素的筛选 ................................................... 31 4.1 模糊综合评价法的理论 ......................................................................... 31 4.2 影响因素的提炼 ...................................................