新三板是为高新技术企业的成长提供融资的平台，也是配置市场资源、发现 价值的平台。本文将结合当前资本一级市场的新三板行情，选取金太阳粮油股份 有限公司（简称“太阳股份”）进行企业投资价值的研究。同时结合所学知识， 尝试选择合适的估值模型对该公司的投资价值进行评估，进而为太阳股份的未来 趋势与投资策略提出相应的建议。 主要研究方法包括：文献研究法、案例分析法和定量与定性分析相结合的方 法等。 主要研究工具包括：自由现金流估值模型、相对估值模型、B-S 期权定价模 型等。 本文运用归纳法、文献研究法，对国内外专家、学者在企业估值、非上市公 司特征方面的研究结果进行的分析学习，选取适合国内经济形势下新三板企业的 估值模型，同时采用定性与定量相结合、理论与实证相结合的方法，对太阳股份 所处的食用油行业进行分析，研究外部因素对太阳股份的影响；运用案例分析法， 对太阳股份进行实证分析，通过基本面分析和财务状况分析，判断公司的运营状 况、盈利能力、竞争力优势和发展前景；最后运用自由现金流量模型、B-S 期权 定价模型和相对估值模型中的市盈率、市净率及市销率估值法，对太阳股份的内 在价值从不同的角度进行了分析和预测，并对其投资风险进行分析，从而对金太 阳粮油股份有限公司的投资价值区间做出比较客观、合理的评估。 财务分析结果显示：太阳股份是一家资产负债率比较低，其财务风险较低， 财务状况良好、成长潜力较大的企业；同时，几种不同的估值法分析结果显示： 该公司价值高于当前投资者的买入价格。 因此，得出结论，太阳股份具备投资价值。 关键词：太阳股份，新三板，股票投资，企业价值评估，B-S 期权定价模 型兰州大学硕士学位论文 太阳股份股票投资价值分析研究 II ANALYSISAND RESEARCH ON STOCK VALUE INVESTMENT OF GOLDEN SUN GRAINAND OILCO., LTD Abstract The new three-board can be said to be a platform, a platform for the growth of high-tech enterprises to provide financing, in addition to the allocation of market resources, Discovery value. This article will combine the current capital level market of the new three-board market, choose Golden Sun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd to carry out the study of enterprise investment value. At the same time, combined with the knowledge, try to select a suitable valuation model to evaluate the investment value of Golden Sun grain and Oil Co., Ltd, and then put forward corresponding suggestions for the future trend and investment strategy of Golden Sun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd. The main research methods include: Literature research method, case analysis method and quantitative and qualitative analysis of the combination of methods. The main research tools include: Free cash flow valuation model, relative valuation model, b-s option pricing model and so on. Using inductive method and literature research method, this paper analyzes and learns the research results of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the characteristics of enterprise valuation and unlisted companies, selects the valuation model suitable for the new three-board enterprises under the domestic economic situation, and adopts the method of combining qualitative and quantitative, theory and demonstration, This paper analyzes the edible oil industry of Golden Sun grain and Oil Co., Ltd, studies the influence of external factors on solar shares, and uses case analysis to make an empirical analysis of Golden Sun grain and Oil Co., Ltd, through fundamental analysis and financial situation analysis, to judge the company's operation status, profitability, competitiveness advantages and development prospects; Finally, the intrinsic value of Golden Sun grain and Oil Co., Ltd is analyzed and predicted from different angles by using the free cash flow model, the B-S option pricing model and the price-to-earnings ratio, the market net rate and the marketing rate valuation method兰州大学硕士学位论文 太阳股份股票投资价值分析研究 III in the relative valuation model, and the investment risk is analyzed. In order to make a more objective and reasonable evaluation of the investment value range of Golden Sun grain and Oil Co., Ltd. The results of financial Analysis show that: Golden Sun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd is a relatively low asset-liability ratio, its financial risk is low, the financial situation is good, the growth potential of enterprises; at the same time, several different valuation methods show that the value of the companyis higher than the current investor's buying price. Therefore, it is concluded that Golden Sun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd has the value of investment. Key words: Golden Sun Grain and Oil Co., Ltd,new three-board,stock investment,enterprise value assessment, b-s option pricing model兰州大学硕士学位论文 太阳股份股票投资价值分析研究 IV 目 录 中文摘要.................................................I Abstract................................................. II 第一章 绪论 ..............................................1 1.1 研究背景及研究意义..........................................1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................4 1.2 研究内容及研究问题..........................................4 1.2.1 研究内容................................................4 1.2.2 研究问题................................................5 1.3 研究方法及论文结构..........................................5 1.3.1 研究方法................................................6 1.3.2 论文的结构..............................................6 1.3.3 论文的框架..............................................7 第二章 股票投资价值分析相关理论 .........................8 2.1 股票投资价值分析理论........................................8 2.1.1 投资价值分析理论........................................8 2.1.2 相对估值模型............................................9 2.1.3 绝对估值模型...........................................10 2.2 新三板企业估值方法的选择...................................12 2.2.1 估值方法的类别和应用...................................12 2.2.2 股权评估的最佳方法.....................................13 2.2.3 现金流贴现估值与相对估值对比...........................13 2.2.4 FCFE 与 FCFF............................................13兰州大学硕士学位论文 太阳股份股票投资价值分析研究 V 2.3 国内外研究情况.............................................14 2.3.1 国内研究情况...........................................14 2.3.2 国外研究情况...........................................15 2.3.3 文献评述...............................................16 第三章 太阳股份发展现状及问题分析 ......................17 3.1 公司概况...................................................17 3.1.1 基本情况...............................................17 3.1.2 业务状况...............................................18 3.1.3 财务状况...............................................20 3.1.4 职工基本情况...........................................21 3.2 公司核心竞争力和发展战略...................................22 3.2.1 发展战略...............................................22 3.2.2 经营战略...............................................22 3.2.3 财务战略...............................................24 3.3 太阳股份发展过程中存在的问题...............................26 3.3.1 批发零售市场分类不科学.................................26 3.3.2 有效融资渠道单一狭窄...................................27 3.3.3 企业管理体系结构欠佳...................................27 3.3.4 全国销售网点布局不协调.................................27 3.3.5 抵御行业风险的能力薄弱.................................28 3.3.6 原材料价格受市场影响较大...............................28 3.3.7 行业内产品同质化严重...................................28 3.3.8 存货管理体系不够健全...................................28 第四章 太阳股份财务分析及价值评估 ......................30 4.1 食用油行业分析.............................................30 4.1.1 行业政策...............................................30兰州大学硕士学位论文 太阳股份股票投资价值分析研究 VI 4.1.2 行业发展现状...........................................31 4.1.3 行业发展前景...........................................33 4.1.4 行业竞争...............................................34 4.2 会计政策分析...............................................35 4.2.1 收入确认原则..........................