在复杂的市场环境下，必须针对创新型项目构建一个适应市场快速变化的项目评估决 策体系。为此，本文以分布式供能系统这一新型能源供应系统为例，按照项目可行性研究 程序，建立项目可行性研究的框架，在此框架下对发展分布式供能系统的必要性、技术可 行性、经济合理性、运营模式适用性等方面进行全面的分析和研究。其中经济合理性和运 营模式适用性是项目立项和决策研究中的关键因素。 鉴于市场条件下的不确定因素变动对项目经济性的影响，在经济性分析中利用模糊数 学理论建立了不确定性因素的定量化模型，使得不确定因素定量化。在运营模式适用性研 究中对不同类型的运营模式通过建立综合评价的计算模型，来帮助在不同的使用场合和变 化环境中选择出最合适的运营模式。在可行性研究各个过程中贯穿了同济医院微型燃机分 布式供能系统实例来进行案例分析和实证。 本文最后运用项目风险管理的理论，总结和分析分布式供能系统在技术、经济和运营 模式各方面的风险因素以及相应的对策。本文的研究成果可为创新型项目的立项和决策提 供基本框架和依据。 关键词，分布式供能系统，可行性研究，技术可行性，经济合理性，运营模式适用性， 不确定因素定量化模型，综合评价，项目风险管理FRAME STUDY OF ESTABLISHMENT AND DECISION-MAKING FOR INOVATIVE PROJECT -- FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR DISTRUBUTED ENERGY SYSTEM ABSTRACT It should be constructed an evaluation and decision-making system for innovative project to adapt for the sophisticated market environment. Therefore taking Distributed Energy System (DES)—new generation energy supply manner as an example, according to project feasibility study procedure, the paper establishes the project feasibility study frame. Based on this frame , it is carried out overall analysis and study on the necessity of DES development, the feasibility of technology, the rationality of economy, the applicability of operating mode, among which, the rationality of economy, and the applicability of operating mode are the key issues for project establishment and decision-making study. Due to the influence of uncertainty in economic assessment under marketing condition, the quantization model of uncertain factor is set up for economical analysis by using fuzzy mathematics theory. In the process of studying the applicability of operate mode, synthesis evaluation calculation model is introduced to assist people choosing most suitable operate mode in different circumstance。 In the various process of project feasibility study, we take DES in Tongji hospital as an example to case analysis and demonstration。 On the end of this paper, summarize and analyze the risk factors as well as corresponding countermeasure in various aspects including technology, economy and operating mode by using project risk management theory. The study result of this paper can provide a basic structure and foundation for innovative project establishing and decision-making. KEY WORDS， Distributed Energy System(DES)，feasibility study，the feasibility of technology ，the rationality of economy， the applicability of operate mode，quantization model of uncertain factor，synthesis evaluation ，project risk management.目 录 第一章 概论...................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景 .............................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 分布式供能系统的定义 ..................................................................................................1 1.1.2 发展分布式供能系统的现实意义 ..................................................................................1 1.1.3 分布式供能系统面临的问题 ..........................................................................................3 1.2 课题研究的目的和内容 ......................................................................................................4 1.3 课题研究的框架 ..................................................................................................................5 第二章 发展分布式供能系统的必要性.......................................................................................7 2.1 分布式供能系统的特点 .....................................................................................................7 2.1.1 分布式供能系统的优点......................................................................................................7 2.1.2 分布式供能系统的缺点.....................................................................................................8 2.2 国外分布式供能系统发展现状 ..........................................................................................9 2.3 国内分布式供能系统发展现状及前景 ............................................................................11 2.3.1 国内分布式供能系统发展现状.......................................................................................11 2.3.2 国内分布式供能系统的发展前景...................................................................................12 2.4 发展分布式供能系统的必要性 .......................................................................................14 2.4.1 提高能源利用效率的需要...............................................................................................14 2.4.2 环境保护的要求...............................................................................................................14 2.4.3 我国天然气发展战略的需要...........................................................................................14 2.4.4 电力发展和电网调峰的需要...........................................................................................15 2.4.5 保障电力安全的需要.......................................................................................................15 2.4.6 我国能源发展战略安全的需要.......................................................................................15 2.4.7 推进国民经济新的增长点和新的产业链的需要...........................................................15 2.4.8 上海发展分布式供能的必要性........................................................................................16 第三章 分布式供能系统的技术可行性.....................................................................................17 3.1 分布式供能系统的技术设计原则 ....................................................................................17 3.2 分布式供能系统适用的地区和场所 ...............................................................................17 3.3 分布式供能系统用户需求分析 ........................................................................................183.3.1 用户需求分析的要点........................................................................................................18 3.3.2 用户需求分析的案例........................................................................................................19 3.4 分布式供能系统的组合模式类型 ....................................................................................20 第四章 分布式供能系统的经济合理性.....................................................................................21 4.1 分布式供能系统常规经济性分析的方法 ........................................................................21 4.1.1 分布式供能系统经济性分析的方法................................................................................21 4.1.2 分布式供能系统经济性分析的比较原则........................................................................22 4.1.3 分布式供能系统经济性分析 ........................................................................................23 4.1.4 分布式供能系统的敏感性分析 ....................................................................................26 4.1.5 微型燃机分布式供能系统经济性分析实例 ................................................................29 4.2 分布式供能系统不确定因素的经济性分析 ....................................................................32 4.2.1 不确定因素分析的数学模型............................................................................................32 4.2.2 不确定因素分析数学模型的应用案例.........................................................