新疆的种子产业市场经过了近二十多年的发展，正在逐步走向成熟与规范，但是在发展的过程 中仍面临着严峻的挑战。国内其他省份以及国外的一些大型种子企业正在进入新疆的种业市场，新 疆的一些种子企业只能利用本地的资源优势为这些企业代繁种子，以维持生存。面对着疆内种子行 业的竞争压力，建设新疆自己的种子产业园显得非常迫切。新疆九禾种业有限责任公司是自治区级 的农业产业化龙头企业，把握住这样的发展机遇，带领着新疆种子产业迈入一个新台阶是有着重要 意义的。 本文从项目投资者的角度对产业园项目建设的可行性进行分析，主要是采用定性分析的方法， 通过对当前种业市场的供需状况、项目建设单位的能力的分析、项目建设对九禾种业公司带来的效 益、项目建设可能存在的风险及对策等方面进行分析，从而论证项目的建设是否可行。 本文首先介绍了见面建设的背景、目的和意义，简要回顾了国内外种业产业化发展的现状，对 国内种业市场的现状、研发状况进行了分析。由于国内的种业由于起步晚、技术不成熟与发达国家 的有很大差距。其次对项目建设单位的建设能力及建设条件等各方面对项目建设的客观条件进行， 分析了项目建设的背景和意义以及建设的必要性。本文着重对全国及全疆的种业市场供需现状进行 分析和预测、竞争环境、技术可行性等方面进行了深入研究。运用 SWOT 分析的方法对项目的建设进 行分析，得出的结论是项目建设的优势大于劣势，机会大于挑战。同时从政策风险、市场风险、经 济风险等方面对该项目现存和潜在风险因素，并提出了针对各类风险所应采取的应对措施。 最后经过归纳和总结，得出该项目是积极可行的，并针对项目的建设以及今后的发展提出了一 定的建议。 关键词，九禾种业；市场分析；风险分析；可行性研究II Study on Feasibility of Constructing Seeds Production Base on Jiuhe-Seeds Co., Ltd in Xinjiang Abstract Through twenty years’ development, the local seed industries now are having been on their orbits to mature and norm in the seeds market in Xinjiang. However, in the competitive situation, quite a number of local industries descend to breeding seeds for some big enterprises from inland and abroad use autochthonic resources. In order to coping with the competition, founding local seeds production bases by indigenous enterprises is in very urgent. As one of the leading enterprises in Xinjiang, Jiuhe-Seeds Co., Ltd is eager to take the opportunity to found its own seeds production bases which is meaningful for indigenous industries to rise up to a new stage in Xinjiang’s seeds market. In this paper, the project feasibility analysis form the point of view of investors has been carried out. The main method of quantitative analysis, Analysis the construction of the project to demonstrate whether the current seed market supply and demand, the analysis of the ability of the project construction unit, construction of the project brought benefits may exist, the project analysis project risks and countermeasure feasible. Firstly, the analysis of present situation about industrialization, market, research and development both on the world and in our country has been made. The consequence shows that the technologies, management and experiences in our seeds industries legs behind that of developed counties greatly. Secondly, it analysis the objective conditions of the construction project and its constructional capability of the company. And the research focuses on forecasting the condition of the market’s supply and demand, competitive situations and tectonics across the country and in Xinjiang. After all these elements of the project have been analyzed by means of SWOT, the result shows the project’s advantages overweight the disadvantages greatly. This article also figures out the solutions for the risks from policies, market, finance and the risks in potential of the construction. All in all, to construct the seeds production base is actively feasible. And it offers some advices for the project’s construction and development. Key words， Jiuhe-Seeds Co., Ltd; Marketing analysis; Risk analysis; Feasibility studyIII 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.........................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外的发展现状 .................................................................................................. 1 1.3 研究的内容与研究方法 .......................................................................................... 6 第 2 章 九禾种业产业园建设项目概况 ............................................................8 2.1 项目建设概况 .......................................................................................................... 8 2.2 项目建设单位基本情况 .......................................................................................... 8 2.3 项目建设区域基本情况 ........................................................................................ 10 2.4 项目建设内容与规模 ............................................................................................ 11 2.5 项目进度安排 ........................................................................................................ 11 第 3 章 项目建设背景及必要性分析...............................................................13 3.1 项目建设背景 ........................................................................................................ 13 3.2 项目建设的必要性 ................................................................................................ 15 3.3 项目建设的目标 .................................................................................................... 17 3.4 项目建设意义 ........................................................................................................ 17 第 4 章 种子产业的市场分析...........................................................................19 4.1 我国种业市场概况 ................................................................................................ 19 4.2 新疆种业市场概况 ................................................................................................ 21 4.3 种子市场需求分析 ................................................................................................ 25 4.4 市场分析结论 ........................................................................................................ 34 第 5 章 项目投资建设可行性分析...................................................................35 5.1 市场竞争的态势分析 ............................................................................................ 35 5.2 建设单位的能力分析 ............................................................................................ 35 5.3 主要的竞争对手情况 ............................................................................................ 40 5.4 项目的效益分析 .................................................................................................... 43 第 6 章 风险分析及对策...................................................................................46 6.1 风险的概念 ............................................................................................................ 46 6.2 项目存在的风险 .................................................................................................... 46 6.3 风险的应对策略 .................................................................................................... 52 第 7 章 结论与建议...........................................................................................55 7.1 结论 ........................................................................................................................ 55 7.2 建议 ........................................................................................................................ 56