文化创意产业的发起源自“创意产业”理念的提出。进入后工业化时代，文化创意 产业成为世界各主要国家经济发展、转型升级的新的支柱性产业，成为各主要城市提升 文化品味、综合竞争力的重要抓手，同时是创造就业岗位、促进城市发展、增强市民文 化精神满足的新动力。 近年来，我国文化创意产业增加值增长快速，国内主要城市如天津、上海、北京、 深圳等，文化创意园如雨后春笋般涌现，创意产业园热迅速卷起。当中，利用历史建筑 遗产或街区改造成为文化创意园区的占绝大多数。而文化创意园能否对文化创意产业起 推动作用，以及如何因地利导地建设（改造）和发展文化创意园区，是理论界与实践家 们必须共同研究的第一问题。 本文从投资可行性视角着眼，结合国内外相关文化创意产业、文化创意园区最新研 究成果，对广业文化创意园改造项目投资进行可行性研究和经济财务分析。通过对项目 现状、投资必要性、所在行业市场进行分析，确定投资目标和方案，并从改造实施条件 分析及组织管理角度提出一些实施性建议；接着从招商环境、投资估算，财务分析、社 会经济效益评价等方面对项目投资进行了详细论证和评价；并从改造项目存在的风险因 素及风险程度进行项目风险分析，提出风险防范措施。 最后得出研究结论，项目投资回收期短，财务净现值、盈利能力、偿债能力和抗风 险能力较高，改造具有较好的投资效益、经济效益和社会效益，同时项目改造对提高该 地区商住人文氛围、城市地区综合文化品质和劳动就业有着很大的作用,具有投资价值。 并为项目实施提出了一些建设性的意见。 关键词，创意产业；文化创意园；投资决策；财务分析；风险分析II ABSTRACT The initiation of cultural and creative industries originated from the idea of creative industries.After entering the era of industrialization, the cultural and creative industries have become the upgrading of economic development, the major countries in the world to the transformation of the new pillar industry, has become an important starting point for the main city to enhance the cultural taste, comprehensive competitiveness, and is a new power to create jobs, promote the development of the city, strengthen public cultural spirit to meet. In recent years, China's cultural and creative industries to increase the value of rapid growth,Major domestic cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, Shenzhen and other cultural and creative parks have sprung up, the Creative Industry Park hot quickly rolled up. Among them, the use of historic buildings or blocks to transform the transformation of Cultural Creative Park accounted for the vast majority. And the cultural and creative park can promote the cultural and creative industries, and how to guide for construction (renovation) and the development of cultural and creative park, is the first issue in theory and practice to study together. From the perspective of investment feasibility, with the domestic and foreign cultural and creative industries, cultural and creative park, the latest research results, the industry wide cultural and creative park project feasibility study and economic and financial analysis. Through the analysis of project status, investment necessity, industry market, determine the investment objectives and programs, and put forward some suggestions from the perspective of the transformation of the implementation of the conditions and organizational management; then from the investment environment, investment estimation, financial analysis, social and economic benefits evaluation and other aspects of the project investment in a detailed demonstration and evaluation; and from the transformation of the project risk factors and the degree of risk of the project risk analysis, risk prevention measures. The article finally draws the conclusion: Project investment recovery period is short, the financial net present value, profitability, solvency and ability to resist risk is higher，has the better investment benefit, economic benefits and social benefits of the project, has a great effect on the improvement of the regional commercial city area comprehensive humanistic atmosphere, cultural quality and employment, with investment value. Keywords: Creative industries; Cultural and creative park; Investment decisions; Financial analysis; Risk analysis.III 目 录 摘要.......................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景与意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外文献综述.......................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 文化创意产业理论研究概述............................................................................. 1 1.2.2 文化创意产业园区理论研究概述..................................................................... 3 1.2.3 项目投资决策研究的演进过程........................................................................ 5 1.3 研究内容与方法........................................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 研究内容............................................................................................................ 7 1.3.2 研究方法............................................................................................................ 8 第二章 项目背景及概况...........................................................................................................9 2.1 旧厂房改造背景........................................................................................................ 9 2.1.1 内部背景............................................................................................................. 9 2.1.2 外部背景........................................................................................................... 10 2.2 项目现状.................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 项目改造必要性......................................................................................................... 13 2.3.1 发展文化创意产业是优化广州产业结构的需要........................................... 13 2.3.2 广业文化创意园改造是企业存续发展的必然选择....................................... 13 2.3.3 广业文化创意园改造是国有资产保值增值的重要举措............................... 13 2.4 项目所属行业市场分析............................................................................................ 14 2.4.1 国内文化创意产业发展现状........................................................................... 14 2.4.2 广州文化创意产业发展现状.......................................................................... 16 2.3.3 广州同类创意项目现状分析........................................................................... 17 2.4.4 广州市区办公楼市场分析............................................................................... 20 2.4.5 项目周边商业办公市场分析.......................................................................... 22 2.5 目标与方案设计........................................................................................................ 23IV 2.5.1 改造目标.......................................................................................................... 23 2.5.2 改造方案.......................................................................................................... 24 2.6 项目实施与管理........................................................................................................ 28 2.6.1 工程特点与建设条件...................................................................................... 28 2.6.2 实施进度.......................................................................................................... 29 2.6.3 招标情况.......................................................................................................... 30 2.6.4 项目组织与管理...............................