当前房地产开发环境充满着各种不确定因素，而且由于房地产项目本身具有的投资 大、周期长等特点，决策者在决定投资房地产项目之前，必须对房地产项目进行可行性 研究，从社会、环境、经济、技术等方面来分析该项目是否可行，从而提高其决策准确 性，降低公司经营风险。 本文结合中山市品峰花园房地产开发项目的实际情况，利用可行性研究的相关理 论，从经济评价和风险分析两个方面对房地产开发项目的可行性进行了探讨。首先，本 文对国内外有关房地产开发项目的可行性研究成果进行了文献综述，从经济评价和风险 分析两方面阐述了房地产开发项目可行性研究的相关理论，并对品峰花园房地产开发项 目进行了简单的介绍，调研了房地产市场的需求。 然后，本文对品峰花园房地产开发项目进行了经济评价。从项目投资现金流量分析 和项目资本金现金流量分析等方面进行了项目的盈利能力分析，分析了项目的清偿能 力、资金平衡和资产负债情况。结果表明品峰花园房地产开发项目的内部收益率为 21.16%，大于基准收益率，净现值为 877.33 万元，大于零，能获得正收益，具有投资 价值，项目的资产负债结构良好。 最后，本文分析了品峰花园房地产开发项目的风险，对项目的风险进行了识别，在 本项目中风险因素主要有七类，包括政策风险、融资风险、建设风险、自然风险、销售 进度风险、销售价格风险、技术风险。在此基础上，运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价对 品峰花园项目的风险进行评估，结果表明该项目的风险水平总体上是中等，七大风险因 素中对项目盈利影响最大的是销售价格风险。之后，提出了各大风险因素的风险应对策 略，并对该项目进行了综合评价。 关键词，房地产开发；可行性研究；经济评价；风险分析II ABSTRACT As the current real estate environment is full of uncertainties and the investment cycle, construction period and other factors of the project itself, decision-makers must conduct a feasibility study of real estate projects from the social, environmental, economic, technological and other aspects to analyze the feasibility of the project before deciding to invest in real estate project, so as to improve the accuracy of its decision-making and reduce business risk, so real estate feasibility analysis received more and more attention from the scholars and the real estate investors in china. Combining with the actual situation of ‘Pinfeng Garden’ project, using the theory of feasibility analysis, economic evaluation and risk analysis, this paper discussed the real estate project feasibility from two aspects. Firstly, this paper presents the research background and research significance, reviews the domestic and foreign literature of real estate project feasibility study, and introduced the research contents and structural arrangement. Form the economic evaluation and risk analysis, real estate development project feasibility analysis is described. Then this paper briefly introduced ‘Pinfeng Garden’ real estate project. Then, the paper evaluated the economic benefit on the ‘Pinfeng Garden’ real estate project. This paper analyzed the project’s profitability from investment cash flow, project capital cash flow and other aspects. This paper also analysed the project's liquidity, fund balance and the situation of assets and liabilities. The results show that ‘Pinfeng Garden’ real estate project's internal rate of is greater than the benchmark rate of return, and net present value is greater than zero. So ‘Pinfeng Garden’ project can get positive returns, has investment value, and the project's balance sheet structure is good. Finally, this paper analyzed ‘Pinfeng Garden’ real estate project’ risks and project risks are identified. There are 7 risk factors in this project, including policy risk, financing risk, construction risk, environmental risk, selling stage risk, selling price risk and technique risk. On this basis, the project risk was evaluated by AHP and FCEM. It indicates that comprehensive project risk is in the average level, and the factor that influences project’s profit most is the selling price risk. Then, aiming at these risk factors, some countermeasuresIII of risk are proposed. At last, a comprehensive evaluation of the project was made. Keywords: Real estate development; Feasibility Analysis; Economy evaluation; Risk analysisIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究意义..................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 国内外研究文献综述................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 国外研究现状.................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 国内研究现状.................................................................................................. 8 1.4 研究内容................................................................................................................... 10 1.5 研究方法及技术路线............................................................................................... 10 1.5.1 问卷调查法.................................................................................................... 11 1.5.2 半结构化访谈................................................................................................ 11 1.5.3 技术路线图.................................................................................................... 11 1.6 本章小结................................................................................................................... 12 第二章 相关研究概述............................................................................................................13 2.1 项目可行性研究概述............................................................................................... 13 2.2 房地产开发项目经济评价....................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 项目经济评价的概念.................................................................................... 13 2.2.2 财务评价........................................................................................................ 14 2.2.3 综合评价........................................................................................................ 17 2.3 房地产开发项目风险分析....................................................................................... 18 2.3.1 风险分析概念................................................................................................ 18 2.3.2 风险识别........................................................................................................ 19 2.3.3 风险评估........................................................................................................ 20 2.3.4 风险应对........................................................................................................ 21 2.4 本章小结................................................................................................................... 21 第三章 品峰花园项目市场环境及 SWOT 分析...................................................................23 V 3.1 项目概述................................................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 项目开发企业简介........................................................................................ 23 3.1.2 地块基本情况................................................................................................ 23 3.1.3 市场定位........................................................................................................ 25 3.1.4 主要经济技术指标........................................................................................ 25 3.2 中山市房地产市场分析..