房地产开发是典型的高投人!高风险!高收益的行业,其前期 的项目投资可行性研究工作极为重要在我国城市化进程加快!房 地产开发投资额急剧增加的今天,房地产开发项目可行性研究和房 地产开发项目评价的理论和实践却相对滞后房地产开发企业如何 根据项目的特点,做好项目投资的前期可行性研究和策划工作,是 项目成败的关键湖南G投资发展有限公司经过项目机会研究,拟 投资江麓园住宅区项目,本文所做的江麓园项目投资可行性研究是 其决策的依据之一 本文利用经济学的有关理论,根据项目特点,综合运用了国内 外较为先进!成熟和科学的项目管理!房地产开发项目可行性研究 的理论和方法,对拟投资的江麓园住宅区项目从宏观环境!区域房 地产市场动态发展,到项目的定位!规划设计!风险评价!财务评 价以及项目实施的有关问题进行了全面的分析论证在整个可行性 研究中,注重从竞争性!风险性!优化三个方面论证项目的可行性 在用层次分析法和模糊评价法相结合进行风险评价时,首次将此方 法推广到项目内部风险排序中本研究成果为湖南G投资有限公司 的江麓园项目投资决策提供了基础研究成果和有关方法对类似的 房地产开发项目可行性研究具有一定的借鉴作用 关键词房地产开发项目,可行性研究,风险,评价ABSTACT RealestatedeveloPmentinvestment15atyPiealindusyrthtat needshugeinvestments,bringsgreatrisksandenomrousPorfits.Its investmentefasbiilitysutdy15ofexrtaodrinaryimPortnaee. 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第1章导论二////.//0///../00////0..0////00//../.00/00////0//0//./.00000.1 1.1课题来源二,................................................................................,.............1 1 . 2国内外可行性研究发展...............................................................................2 1 . 2.1国外可行性研究发展............................................................................2 1..22国内可行性研究发展........................................................,.............3 1.3房地产开发项目可行性研究的主要方法..................................................3 1.3,1房地产项目财务评价...........................#3 1.3.2不确定分析...............................................................#.#....5 1.3.3方案比较的方法......................................#..#5 1.3.4风险评价的主要方法............................................................................5 1.4我国房地产投资可行性研究存在的主要问题..........................................6 1.4.1存在理论!方法!标准上的缺陷与不足...........................................6 1 . .42可行性研究规范性文件的评价方法不适合房地产开发项目特点...6 1..43定性与定量分析结合不够,定量分析具有较大的局限性...............7 1.4.4风险评价不足..........................................................7 1.4.5可行性研究目标单一............................................................................8 1.5本项目特点...................................................................................8 1.5.1本项目属于近郊大盘....................................8 1.5.2不可控因素较多......................................................8 1 . 5.3近期区域性市场容量有限....................................................................8 1.5.4竞争激烈.....................................................................#......8 1.5.5项目处于宏观调控期...........................................................#..8 1.6本项目可行性研究的主要方法..........................,.................................8 1 . 6.1注重项目竞争性!风险性!优化的研究...........................................9 1 . 6 . 2加强了宏观分析与评价........................................................................9 1 . 6.3加强了风险评价............................................................................#..#10 1 . 7本文的逻辑结构............,............................12 第2章环境市场分析与市场定位.0二//0#//二//0../0二//0#/00#/0#/..0二//:.///#14 2.1环境分析................................................,..,.................................142 . 1.1宏观环境分析......................................................14 2,1.2城市建设和基础设施环境.............................................................,.,巧 2.1.3长沙市房地产开发现状......................................................................16 2 . 1 . 4中观环境分析一H园区的环境与前景分析........................................18 2 . 1 . 5项目用地微观环境分析.................................................,..............21 2.1.6项目用地Sw0T分析..........................................#.....22 2.2市场分析与预测................................................#...#23 .22 . 1长沙市房地产市场容量!价格趋势分析.........................................23 2 . .22项目区域市场动态分析................................................,...............27 2 . 3市场定位和价格预测............................................#.....#28 2 . 3 . 1项目市场定位................................................28 2.3.2价格预测......................................................................................31 .24营销策划.....................................................................................................34 2.4.1江麓园整体形象.............................................#..#,34 2 . .42营销策略....................................................................................34 .24,3定价策略..............................................................................................34 2 . .44增值营销策略..........................,..........#,#35 第3章基于风险分析的方案选优和风险评价./0///0///00/0///0///00.//0.36 3 . 1方案选优.....................................................................................................36 3 . 2风险评价.....................................................................................................40 3 . 2 . 1优选方案整体风险评价......................................................................40 3.2.2优选方案的风险评价..........................................................................40 3 . 3风险应对计划........................................................................#.....#42 第4章项目规划设计与投资估算!资金筹措二0//./0///二//,///////#/../#/#44 4 . 1规划设计...........,........................................................#.....#.#,#44 4.1.1总体规划.....................................................................................#...#44 4.1.2建筑设计.........................................................................................#....46 4 . 2分期与进度安排.........................................47 4.3投资估算.....................................................................................................48 .44资金筹措...................,......................................................................#....50 .44 . 1资金筹措方案的选择..........................................................................50.44 . 2资金来源.........