随着中国旅游产业的高速发展和主题公园互动体验旅游模式的不断升级， 主题公园行业内部的竞争越来越激烈，项目高效管理创收、规避风险止损尤显 重要。当下，主题公园管理中仍存在着概念不清、盲目开发立项、同质化严重、 忽视项目风险管理、未优化区域集聚规模等问题，导致大部分主题公园昙花一 现，经济效益和社会效益低下，造成资金浪费、环境污染等社会问题。 基于以上研究背景，本文选取西部恐龙水乐园作为研究对象，梳理相关理 论，建立了基于层次分析法的模糊综合评判模型，以实例论证的方式，对该项 目进行风险识别，提出不同级别风险应对的具体措施。首先通过行业数据对比， 分析了中国主题公园发展现状，阐述了实证研究西部恐龙水乐园项目风险管理 的意义，给出了论文的技术路线和框架结构。其次在项目基本情况介绍和项目 风险成因一般分析的基础上，以目标为导向进行风险识别，通过逐级分解项目 管理目标并给出相对应的目标损害因子，分类整理目标损害因子得到项目风险 因子，对发现的项目风险因子逐级分类整合，构建水乐园项目风险评价因子体 系。然后采取层次分析法，结合西部恐龙水乐园项目每一风险的重要程度、发 生的概率、风险值大小，构建出成对比较的判断矩阵，求解判断矩阵的特征值 和特征向量，确定指标权重并进行一致性检验，形成赋权重的项目风险评价指 标体系。对项目风险评价指标做多级模糊综合判断，比较风险评价备选集得到 综合风险等级，汇总计算末端风险因子权重，按 ABC 统计法进行排序并分等级。 模糊层次分析法构建了西部恐龙水乐园项目风险管理模型，量化评价了项目风 险。最后按照风险等级，从风险接受、规避、减轻、转移等方面，列出具体的 风险应对措施和计划清单。 西部恐龙水乐园受政治、经济、市场等宏观环境的影响，同时面临项目落 地过程中复杂的自然环境，营运过程中激烈的市场竞争，项目从头到尾面临各 种潜在的风险因素。通过对该项目进行具体的有针对性的风险管理，可有效控 制水乐园项目风险，也为国内区域性主题公园风险管理实践活动提供参考。 关键词，西部恐龙水乐园；项目风险管理；模糊层次分析法II PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT FOR THE WESTERN DINOSAUR PARK Abstract With the rapid development of China's tourism industry and the upgrading of interactive experience tourism mode of theme parks, the competition within the theme park industry is becoming more and more fierce, and it is particularly important to efficiently manage projects to generate income, avoid risks and stop losses. At present, there are still some problems in the management of theme parks, such as unclear concepts, blind development and project approval, serious homogenization, neglecting project risk management, and not optimizing the scale of regional agglomeration, etc., which lead to a flash in the pan in most theme parks, low economic and social benefits, and social problems such as fund waste and environmental pollution. Based on the above research background, this paper selected the western dinosaur water paradise as the research object, sorted out the relevant theories, demonstrated by examples, identified the risk of the project, made a risk assessment, and put forward specific measures for different levels of risk response. Firstly, through the comparison of industry data, this paper analyzes the development status of theme parks in China, expounds the significance of the empirical study on the risk management of the western dinosaur water park project, and gives the technical route and framework structure of the paper. Second in the project risk management, on the basis of general analysis, goal oriented in risk identification, through decomposition project management goal step by step and give the corresponding target damage factor, sorting target damage factor for project risk factor, to found the project risk factor classification integration step by step, build water park project risk evaluation factor system. Then adopt analytic hierarchy process , combined with western water park project every dinosaur, happened to the importance of the risk probability, risk value size, build a paired comparison judgment matrix, solving the judgement matrix eigenvalue and eigenvector, determine the index weight andIII consistency check, form the empowerment of project risk evaluation index system. Multilevel fuzzy comprehensive judgment was made on the project risk assessment indicators, the comprehensive risk level was obtained by comparing the selected risk assessment works, the end risk factor weight was summarized and calculated, and the ranking was conducted and graded according to the ABC statistical method. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to construct the risk management model of the western dinosaur water paradise project and quantitatively evaluate the project risk. Finally, according to the risk level, the specific risk response measures and plans are listed from the aspects of risk acceptance, avoidance, mitigation and transfer. Affected by the macro environment of politics, economy and market, etc., the western dinosaur water paradise is also faced with the complex natural environment during the project implementation process and the fierce market competition during the operation process. The project is faced with various potential risk factors from beginning to end. Through the specific and targeted risk management of this project, the risk of water park project can be effectively controlled, and the risk management practice of domestic regional theme parks can be provided with reference. Keywords: Western Dinosaur Water Park;Project Risk Management;Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIV 目录 中文摘要......................................................................................................I Abstract....................................................................................................... II 第一章 导论............................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和意义................................................................................................1 1.2 研究内容和思路................................................................................................6 第二章 相关理论与方法...........................................................................9 2.1 项目风险管理理论............................................................................................9 2.2 旅游项目系统理论..........................................................................................11 2.3 模糊层次分析法..............................................................................................14 第三章 西部恐龙水乐园项目风险识别.................................................19 3.1 西部恐龙水乐园项目概况..............................................................................19 3.2 风险成因分析..................................................................................................23 3.3 项目目标分解..................................................................................................27 3.4 目标损害集合建立..........................................................................................30 3.5 项目风险指标体系建立..................................................................................31 第四章 西部恐龙水乐园项目风险评价.................................................34 4.1 项目风险评价指标体系权重的确定..............................................................34 4.2 基于 AHP 的西部恐龙水乐园项目风险模糊综合评价................................42 4.3 风险等级排序..................................................................................................48 第五章 西部恐龙水乐园项目风险应对.................................................50 5.1 项目风险应对的一般策略..............................................................................50 5.2 项目风险应对的具体措施..............................................................................51 第六章 结束语......................................................................................... 57V 6.1 主要内容和结论..............................................................................................57 6.2 不足与展望......................................................................................................59