天津空港物流加工区邻里中心建设项目，将传统的居住区商业设施业态中的 分散、小规模的零散店铺进行整合，成为集社区购物、休闲、娱乐、餐饮于一体 的一站式商业区域。邻里中心采用水平整合连锁业态的模式，使各邻里商业可按 统一品牌、统一管理形成连锁商圈；同时能贴近消费群体，能垂直整合商业机会。 开展项目可行性研究，对保证项目顺利建成、运营和投资回收，以及实现项 目经济和社会效益都有很重要的意义。本文以天津空港物流加工区邻里中心建设 项目为研究对象，采用理论与实践相结合的研究方法，从技术、经济、环保、社 会、风险等方面进行可行性研究。 由于本项目投资大、工期长、投资回收期长，因而本文重点对项目的风险进 行了分析评价。在分析项目投资和效益构成的基础上，对该项目进行风险因素辨 识和分析。然而实践中投资项目往往受许多随机因素的影响，这些因素对项目产 生影响又不断发生变化，因而要系统地对这些因素进行分析具有很大的难度。蒙 特卡罗方法是按照变量的分布随机选取数值，模拟项目的投资过程，通过大量的 独立、重复计算，得到多个模拟结果，再根据统计原理计算各模拟结果的统计量， 得到相关经济评价指标的统计特征，从而对项目投资收益与风险有一个比较清晰 的估计。本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟分析方法对项目的费用风险、财务风险、工期风 险进行了分析评估，从结果得出，项目总体上有较高的抗风险能力，并且能够达 到预期的投资收益目标。 关键字，可行性研究；风险分析；蒙特卡罗模拟ABSTRACT The Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is to integrate the scattered, small-scale shops of traditional commercial facilities in residential areas, and become a one-stop business district that includes community shopping, leisure, entertainment and dining. The Neighborhood Centre project adopted the horizontal-integrating chain business model, so that the neighborhood can form a business district that has unified business brand and management. At the same time, due to the interaction with consumers, business opportunities can be vertically integrated. Feasibility study has very important significance in ensuring the completion, operation, investment recovery, and achieving economic and social benefits of the project. In this paper, the Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is the object for study. By using theory and practice research methods, the feasibility study is made from the technical, economic, environmental, social, and risk aspects. Due to the large investment, long construction period, long investment recovery period, this article focuses on the project risk analysis. Based on the analysis of the composition of project investment and return, we first made an identification and analysis of project risk factors. However, in practice projects are often affected by many random factors, which has impacts on the project but is constantly changing, thus it is very difficult to systematically analyze these factors. Monte Carlo method is to make a simulation of the project investment process using a lager quantity of randomly selected numbers according to the distribution of variable and obtain corresponding simulation results, and then by calculating the statistical value of these results, we can obtain the statistical characteristics of the related economic values, and finally have a clearer estimate of the project risks. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to assess the project's cost risk, financial risk, schedule risk, and from the analysis results obtained, the project in general has a high ability to resist risks and to achieve the expected investment returns. Key Words，Feasibility study, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation目 录 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义.................................................................................1 1.2 国内外可行性研究发展概况综述.........................................................2 1.2.1 国外可行性研究发展概况..........................................................2 1.2.2 国内可行性研究发展概况..........................................................5 1.3 报告的研究内容.....................................................................................6 第二章 可行性研究理论综述................................................................................8 2.1 可行性研究的概述.................................................................................8 2.2 可行性研究的作用.................................................................................9 2.3 可行性研究的依据和要求....................................................................10 2.3.1 可行性研究的依据.....................................................................10 2.3.2 可行性研究的要求....................................................................10 2.4 可行性研究的阶段划分........................................................................ 11 2.5 可行性研究的主要内容........................................................................12 第三章 项目建设的必要性..................................................................................17 3.1 项目基本情况.......................................................................................17 3.1.1 项目名称....................................................................................17 3.1.2 项目建设单位概况....................................................................17 3.1.3 项目建设背景.............................................................................17 3.1.4 项目概况.....................................................................................17 3.2 项目建设的必要性...............................................................................18 3.2.1 社区商业市场需求.....................................................................18 3.2.2 社区商业市场定位....................................................................19 3.2.3 社区商业经济效益....................................................................19 3.3 市场研究...............................................................................................19 3.3.1 市场调查的作用........................................................................19 3.3.2 市场调查的程序........................................................................20 3.3.3 市场调查的内容........................................................................20 3.3.4 市场调查的方法........................................................................21 3.4 市场预测...............................................................................................223.4.1 市场预测的意义........................................................................22 3.4.2 市场预测的内容........................................................................22 3.4.3 市场预测的方法........................................................................23 3.5 项目的市场调查和预测........................................................................26 3.5.1 目前社区发展的主要问题.........................................................26 3.5.2 目标人群需求分析.....................................................................27 3.5.3 社区商业业态类型分析.............................................................29 3.6 主要业态优缺点分析............................................................................30 3.7 社区商业主要开发类型比较分析........................................................31 3.7.1 邻里中心型社区商业.................................................................31 3.7.2 街区型社区商业.........................................................................32 3.7.3 住宅项目配套型社区商业.........................................................32 3.7.4 比较分析.....................................................................................34 3.8 邻里中心分析........................................................................................34 3.8.1 邻里中心文化内涵分析.............................................................34 3.8.2 邻里中心的市场经营定位.........................................................35