I 高速铁路货运动车组开行可行性研究 摘要 近年来，随着国民经济的快速发展，人民群众对小批量、高附加值和高时效性的货 运需求日益增加，目前我国高速铁路快件运输的能力和服务水平还不是很高，与市场需 求还有不小的差距。2013 年 6 月 15 日，中国铁路总公司开启了铁路货运改革，随着货 改的不断深化，中铁快运现已经推出利用早晨高铁动检车和部分具有富足运输能力的图 定客运动车组进行运输的高铁快递业务。截止到 2016 年底，我国高速铁路营业里程已 达到 2.2 万 km；到 2020 年，我国的高速铁路营业里程将达到 3 万公里；到 2025 年， 高速铁路营业里程将会达到 3.8 万公里左右。本文立足铁路货运改革和不断完善的高速 铁路网，研究在高速铁路开行货运动车组可行性的有关问题，以期为高铁货运发展的提 供参考，主要研究结论如下： （1）对国内外高速铁路快件运输的发展现状进行了梳理。 梳理了国外高速铁路快件运输的发展情况。国内方面，介绍了高铁快递的发展和现 状，概括了目前存在的不足，指出需要发展更优质的高速货运产品，同时利用 SWOT 法对开行货运动车组进行了分析。 （2）详细分析了我国高速铁路货运动车组的开行条件。 从车辆技术、运输组织、经济可行性等方面对未来我国开行高速铁路货运动车组进 行了分析，谈论了开行货运动车组的边际成本，并以武广高铁为例，对开行高速铁路货 运动车组的运价进行估算，同时估算了开行高速铁路货运动车组的收入，并与客运动车 组的收入进行比较，得出开行货运动车组的可行性。 （3）对高速铁路货运动车组的货源进行了分析。 分析了高速铁路货运动车组的近、远期的货运产品，并对其货源前景进行了预测， 利用改进的 Logit 模型对高速铁路货运动车组运输的分担率进行了分析。 （4）对高速铁路货运动车组的开行方案进行了设计。 分析了高速铁路货运动车组的开行方案设计、开行种类和运行区段等。 由于研究的局限性和眼界不够宽阔，本文还存在着这样或那样的问题，恳请各位老 师批评指正。 关键词：高速铁路，货运动车组，可行性，分担率预测Abstract II HIGH SPEED RAILWAY FREIGHT EMU CDB FEASIBILITY RESEARCH ABSTRACT In recent years, with the rapid development of the national economy, people's increasing of small volume, high added value and timeliness of the freight demand, at present our country's high-speed railway express transport capacity and service level is not very high, and the market demand is still not a small gap. In June 15, 2013, China Railway Company opened a railway freight reform, with the deepening reform of China Railway Express goods, has now launched by morning high-speed rail inspection car and has rich dynamic transport capacity of the passenger transportation graph of EMU high-speed rail courier services. By the end of 2016, China's high-speed railway mileage has reached 22 thousand km; by 2020, China's high-speed railway mileage will reach 30 thousand km; by 2025, high-speed railway mileage will reach 38 thousand km. Based on the railway freight reform and the continuous improvement of the high-speed railway network, this paper studies the related problems of opening the licensed sports vehicle group in the high-speed railway, in order to provide reference for the development of high-speed rail freight transportation, and the main conclusions are as follows: (1) Sorting out the current situation of express railway transportation at home and abroad. This paper reviews the development of express railway transportation in foreign countries. At home, this paper introduces the development and current situation of high-speed rail express, summarizes the existing shortcomings, and points out the need to develop more high-quality high-speed freight products, and analyzes the open licensed sports vehicle group by SWOT method. (2) The operating conditions of express trains (freight trains) in China are analyzed in detail. Out of the future high-speed railway express class I CDB from vehicle technology, transport organization, economic feasibility and other aspects (freight EMU) are analyzed, discussed the licensed sports car group, marginal cost, and to the Wuhan Guangzhou high-speed railway as an example, to train high speed railway express trains (EMU freight) price estimate at the same time, estimate the operation of high speed railway express trains (freight EMU) income, and compared with the EMU passenger revenue, the feasibility of licensed sports car group. (3) Analyze the source of express railway transportation. Analysis of recent and future high-speed railway express freight transport products, and the supply prospects were predicted, the high-speed railway express trains using improvedAbstract III Logit model (freight EMU) share rate is analyzed transport. (4) The design scheme of express train trains in high speed railway is designed. This paper analyzes the design, operation type and operation section of express train of high-speed railway. Because of the limitations of the research and the wide scope of the field of vision, there are still some problems such as this. I would like to ask all the teachers to criticize and correct me. Key Words: high speed railway, freight EMU, feasibility, share rate prediction目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论............................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及问题提出 ................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ..................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 .................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ................................................. 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状................................................. 2 1.3 研究思路和主要研究内容 ............................................ 3 1.3.1 研究思路 ..................................................... 3 1.3.2 主要研究内容................................................. 4 第二章 高速铁路货运动车组特性分析.........................................6 2.1 高速铁路货运动车组开行可行性的基本内涵 ............................ 6 2.1.1 高速铁路货运动车组概念....................................... 6 2.1.2 高速铁路货运动车组开行可行性的研究范围....................... 7 2.2 国内外高速铁路货物运输发展现状 .................................... 8 2.2.1 国外高速铁路货物运输发展现状................................. 8 2.2.2 国内高速铁路货物运输发展现状................................ 11 2.2.3 国内开行货运动车组面临的问题................................ 12 2.3 开行高速铁路货运动车组 SWOT 分析 .................................. 12 2.3.1 优势分析（S）............................................... 12 2.3.2 劣势分析（W）............................................... 13 2.3.3 机会分析（O）............................................... 13 2.3.4 威胁分析（T）............................................... 14 第三章 高速铁路货运动车组开行条件分析....................................16 3.1 车辆技术条件分析 ................................................. 16 3.1.1 列车轴重条件分析 ............................................ 16 3.1.2 车辆内部结构分析 ............................................ 16 3.2 运输组织条件分析 ................................................. 17 3.2.1 快速装卸设备分析 ............................................ 17 3.2.2 站场作业条件分析 ............................................ 20 3.2.3 铁路运输能力分析 ............................................ 21 3.2.4 运输安全分析 ................................................ 21目录 V 3.3 高速铁路货运动车组经济可行性分析 ................................. 22 3.3.1 边际成本分析 ................................................ 22 3.3.2 收益估算分析................................................ 22 3.3.3 运价估算分析 ................................................ 23 第四章 高速铁路货运动车组货源分析........................................26 4.1 货源种类分析 ..................................................... 26 4.2 货源规模前景分析 ................................................. 27 4.3 各运输方式分担率分析 ............................................. 28 第五章 高速铁路货运动车组开行方案........................................31 5.1 开行方案设计原则 ................................................. 31 5.2 列车开行种类 ..................................................... 31 5.2.1 直达列车...............