2 The Numbers GameMeasuring audiences in the data age Andrew Green Introduction People who fear numbers are said to sufer fromnumerophobia or arithmophobia. There are even thosewho fear specifc numbers like number 7 (heptaphobics) ornumber 13 (triskaidekaphobics).Audience measurement is a discipline swimming in numbersand, with the emergence of Big Data to supplement oreven replace more traditional survey approaches in manycases, now throws out even more numbers. Such numbers are used to support media buyingdecisions, scheduling strategies and sales arguments. Thismeans, of course, that they are often marshalled to backup arguments rather than to generate insights; a salescase must be made by a media owner for every possibleclient prospect and numbers be found that support thatcase. His competitors will use the same set of numbers ina diferent way to propose that, in fact, it is their mediumthat is most suited to the client. Numbers can be made to support almost anything in thehands of a skilled practitioner, something Benjamin Disraeli,the 19th century British Prime Minister, was surely referringto when he talked about: “ three kinds of lies: lies, damnedlies and statistics. ” The emergence of digital media and the data that comeswith it have made the job of sifting through these numbersto fnd ‘the truth’ more challenging than ever.three kinds of lies:lies, damned lies and statistics.- Benjamin Disraeli “A good decision is based on knowledge, not numbers.” - Plato 3 The Numbers GameMeasuring audiences in the data age Andrew Green Opportunity Knocks When a publisher makes the case to a marketer that itshould advertise in one of his magazines, the argumentwill usually revolve around the magazine’s ‘ft’ with theadvertiser’s target audience. If the marketer is sellinghautecoutureclothing, for example, the publisher will point tohow many upscale women read the magazine and howmuch they love it. If a radio broadcaster wants to sell its advantages to asupermarket retailer, it may point out how many potentialcustomers are listening to its stations in the run up to theirshopping expeditions. The audience statistics presented by these and other mediaare generated using statistical projections of sample-basedsurveys. It is important to note that they are notcounts ,butestimatesof the number and kind of people viewing,listening to or reading the media content being measured. It is also important to point out that they are not a measureof how many people see theadvertisingin any of thesemedia; rather, they are a measure ofopportunitiesto seeor hear the advertising. This may seem like a subtle distinction, but one of thereasons it is important is that the relationship betweenthe measured opportunity to see advertising and likelyexposure to the medium carrying the advertising difersbetween media. For example, people reading a newspaper or magazinemay not read every page and may not, therefore, have anequal probability of seeing an ad on page 5 or page 50 of the publication. The measurement treats them equally –as a ‘reader’.People who claim to listen to the radio for at least somepart of the period between 7.00 am and 7.15am on aparticular day will have difering likelihoods of hearing adsat 2 minutes or 13 minutes past the hour. 4 The Numbers GameMeasuring audiences in the data age Andrew Green The following table summarises the diference in defnitions of Opportunities to See (OTS) advertising in most audiencemeasurement studies between diferent media: MediumDefnition of Audience/Opportunity to See Advertising Television#Indicates that they are in the room with the TV set tuned to a channelat the time a commercial airs Radio*Claim to listen to a station during the quarter hour time period a commercial plays Newspapers/ MagazinesClaim to read any part of a publication featuring an ad Out of HomeClaim to or tracked as passing poster advertising frames DigitalInitiated load of a webpage featuring a banner ad # In some systems, panellists are also asked to confrm they are watching * Non-electronic measurement only. Passive electronic methods can measure exposure to audio content second-by-second 。。。。。。