Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representationof RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorizedposting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate thisdocument for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission isrequired from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documentsfor commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit /pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to publicpolicy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to thepublic interest.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at/giving/contributeLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9699-9 For more information on this publication, visit /t/RR1681 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R is a registered trademark. Cover: Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims attend prayers during Eid al-Fitr as they mark the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, at the site of a suicide car bomb attack over the weekend at the shopping area of Karrada, in Baghdad, Iraq, July 6, 2016. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani iii Preface Tis report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a proj- ect titledImplications of a Religious War in the Middle East for the U.S.Armysponsored by Headquarters, Department of the Army, DeputyChief of Staf, G-8, Army Quadrennial Defense Review Ofce. Tepurpose of the project was to examine sectarianism in the Middle East,focusing on Syria and Iraq.Te project Unique Identifcation Code (PUIC) for the projectthat produced this document is HQD146841. Tis research was conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’sStrategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center,part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research anddevelopment center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance”(FWA00003425) and complies with theCode of Federal Regulationsfor the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law(45 CFR46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the imple- mentation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviewsand approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the HumanSubjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. Te views ofsources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not representthe ofcial policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. v Contents Preface .....iii Figures .....vii Summary ..ix Acknowledgments ...xv Abbreviations .......xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ...........1 CHAPTER TWO Te History of Sectarianism in the Middle East ....9 Demographics .........11 Early History and the Sunni-Shi’a Divide .13 Middle Ages: 800–1500 ..........14 Early Modern Era: 1500–1920 ..16 Modern Era: 1900–1979 .........18 Contemporary Era: 1979–Present ..........20 CHAPTER THREE Sectarianism in Iraq 23 Overview ..26 Pre-Ba’ath Sectarianism: Challenging Assumptions and Tracing Identities 28 Ba’ath-Era Sectarianism and Other “-isms” ...........42 Post-Ba’ath Sectarianism ........48 Implications of Sectarian Division for the Iraqi State and the Region......63 Possibilities for the Future ........65 。。。。。。