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iii
Preface
The safety of automated vehicles (AVs) is intrinsic to their success both in the marketplace
and as the kind of transformative innovation that their proponents anticipate. In the summer of
2017, the Uber Advanced Technologies Group approached the RAND Corporation to request
help in crafting a framework for measuring AV safety that could aid in public discussion of the
issues. This project builds on previous RAND research into AV trends and related public policy.
Whereas prior work has addressed issues broadly and analytically, this project has looked more
closely at what companies that are key to the evolution of AVs have been doing to foster and
evaluate the safety of those vehicles. The report is intended for a broad public audience.
In this report, we develop a framework for measuring safety in AVs that could be used
broadly by companies, policymakers, and the public. We considered how to define safety for
AVs, how to measure safety for AVs, and how to communicate what is learned or understood
about AVs. Given AVs’ limited total on-road mileage compared with conventional vehicles, we
consider options for proxy measurements—i.e., factors that might be correlated with safety. We
also explore how safety measurements could be made in simulation and on closed courses. The
closely held nature of AV data limits the details of what is made public or shared between
companies and with the government. The report focuses on identifying key concepts and
illuminating the kinds of measurements that might be made and communicated.
The research reported here was conducted in two programs. The RAND Science,
Technology, and Policy program focuses primarily on the role of scientific development and
technological innovation in human behavior, global and regional decisionmaking as it relates to
science and technology, and the concurrent effects that science and technology have on policy
analysis and policy choices. The program covers such topics as space exploration, information
and telecommunication technologies, and nano- and biotechnologies. The RAND Justice Policy
Program spans both criminal and civil justice system issues with such topics as public safety,
effective policing, police–community relations, drug policy and enforcement, corrections policy,
use of technology in law enforcement, tort reform, catastrophe and mass-injury compensation,
court resourcing, and insurance regulation. Research in both programs is supported by
government agencies, foundations, and the private sector.
RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment (JIE) conducts research and analysis in civil
and criminal justice, infrastructure development and financing, environmental policy,
transportation planning and technology, immigration and border protection, public and
occupational safety, energy policy, science and innovation policy, space, telecommunications,
and trends and implications of artificial intelligence and other computational technologies.
Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, Marjory S.
Blumenthal (Marjory_Blumenthal@rand). For more information about RAND Science,
iv
Technology, and Policy, see /jie/stp or contact the director at stp@rand. For
more information about RAND Justice Policy, see /jie/justice-policy or contact the
director at justice@rand.
v
Contents
Preface ....... iii
Boxes, Figures, and Tables ........... vii
Summary .. viii
Acknowledgments ........... xiii
Abbreviations ....... xiv
1. Introduction ......... 1
Context for Contrasting AV and Conventional Automotive Safety ......... 1
Measurement Framework Focuses on System and Ecosystem Levels ..... 2
Scope, Approach, and Limitations of This Report4
2. Safety ....... 6
Foundational Safety Concepts ....... 6
Safety Engineering Meets AVs ..... 9
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards11
Special Aspects of Level 4 AVs .. 12
3. Measuring Automated Vehicle Safety ... 14
Frame 1. Settings . 14
Artificial Setting .......... 15
Public Road Setting With and Without a Safety Driver ......... 17
A Discussion of the Setting Frame ...... 18
Frame 2. Stages ... 21
Development ... 22
Demonstration . 23
Deployment ..... 27
A Discussion of the Stage Frame ........ 28
Frame 3. Measures .......... 28
Measure Category 1: Standards, Processes, Procedures, and Design . 29
Measure Category 2: Leading Measures ......... 29
Measure Category 3: Lagging Measure .......... 34
Measure Characteristics .......... 34
A Discussion of the Measure Frame ... 35
From Frames to Framework ........ 36
Measures to Metrics ........ 40
Numerators and Denominators ........... 42
Creating Comparisons . 42
Operational Design Domain ........ 43
Upgrades and Updates ..... 44
The Ecosystem .... 46 。。。