colliers international2 The Knowledge Report|First Quarter|2009|Grade A Offce oVerall sUpply & deMand and Vacancy 整体供应,需求及空置状况 In 1Q 2009, there was only one Grade A offce building launched to the market, known as R&F Winner Plaza. This project is located at the junc- tion of Huangpu Avenue and Liede Road providing the market with an area of about 90,000 sq m, accounting for 5.23% of total supply making the total stock increase to 1,719,230 sq m. Looking forward to the next six months, there will be a number of projects entering the market, com- prising GT landmark, Onelink Walk, Poly Centre Block 6 and China Mobile Building. In general, every year in January and February is the off peak season of the offce market. Because of the fnancial crisis, demand for Grade A of- fce space is even more reduced in this quarter. The budget for offce rent was reduced to a certain extent. Business requirements for offce space are now narrowed to smaller units with a lower price level. The statistics data indicates that the key clients are mainly from domestic enterprises and the majority of them are engaged in sectors such as steel, banking, energy, industry and pharmaceuticals etc. The absorption rate is the frst time negative growth was recorded at a rate of 5,261 sq m because of the impact of the global economic downturn. Major transactions were taking place in Yuexiu District in this quarter because of its mature com- mercial supporting facilities and lower rental level. Although there was no signifcant supply in 1Q 2009, coupled with the impact of the global economic downturn and only one new supply enter- ing the market, the vacancy rate recorded 26.82%, up 4.36% quarter-on- quarter (q-o-q). There will be more projects launched to Tianhe District driving Tianhe to have the highest increase in vacancy rate. On the contrary, the vacancy rate of Yuexiu District has continued a downward trend. 2009年第一季度，仅有一幢新建甲级写字楼入市-富 力盈泰广场，此项目位于珠江新城黄埔大道及猎德路 交汇处；为市场提供面积约90,000平方米，占总供应 量5.23%，使总存量增加至1,719,230平方米。展望未 来半年将有多个项目竣工投入市场，包括高德置地广 场、万菱汇、保利中心第6栋和全球通大厦 一如以往各年度的一、二月均为是淡季，加上受是次 金融危机影响；本季度，甲级写字楼市埸需求更显缩 减，租金预算均为不同程度的下调，企业对写字楼要 求偏向选择单位较细及租金水平较低的写字楼。据统 计数据显示，目前主要客户来自国内企业为主，并集 中从事以钢铁、银行、能源业、医药等。受全球性经 济下滑冲击影响，本季度吸纳量首次录得负增长约 5,261 平方米；由于各个企业纷纷节省成本，季内主 要成交集中在租金水平较低，商业配套成熟的越秀区 内 2009年第一季度，虽然供应没有明显增加，只有一栋 写字楼入市，但受全球经济下滑影响，空置率有上升 趋势，本季度空置率为26.82%，比第四季度上升4.36 个百分点。当中天河区有新项目入市带动，此区空置 率上升幅度明显较大，相反越秀区空置率则有持续下 降趋势 Source: Colliers International Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际 *Note: Some Grade A offce space was downgraded to Grade B, causing the vacancy rate to climb to about 10% in 3Q 2008. *备注：由于有些甲级写字楼已降至乙级写字楼，使第三季度空置率攀升了约10% Figure 2 Guangzhou Grade A Offce Stock and Occupancy 图 2广州甲级写字楼市场总存量与吸纳量 Figure 2 Guangzhou Grade A Office Stock and Occupancy 图2广州甲级写字楼市场总存量与吸纳量 -10,000 390,000 790,000 1,190,000 1,590,000 1,990,000 20052006200720082009 Q1 sq m 平方米 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% Vacancy 空置率Stock 总存量Take-up 吸纳量Vacancy Rate 空置率 colliers international The Knowledge Report |First Quarter|2009|Grade A Offce Source: Colliers International Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际 Figure 4 Guangzhou Grade A Offce Rental 图 4广州甲级写字楼市场租金 rental trend In 1Q 2009, the average rents of Grade A offce gradually decreased fol- lowing the falling trend of absorption rate making the vacancy rates rise. Potential tenants performed with an extremely cautious attitude because of the impact of the fnancial tsunami such as expanding the bargaining power with landlords. The average rental has been dragged down by this factor. The overall average rent is about RMB 120 per sq m per month, down 6.02% q-o-q. Following the rental adjustment in the previous quar- ter, rents of Tianhe District are the steadiest in Guangzhou, recording a fall of 5.94%, followed by Yuexiu District with about an 8.21% decline in rents. Haizhu District recorded a 10.53% falling rate which is the highest in Guangzhou. It is foreseen that a lot more new supply of Grade A offce will arrive in the market, so rents are still facing downward pressure in the near future. 租金趋势 2009年第一季，广州甲级办公楼平均租金随着吸纳量 持续下降使空置率继续呈向上趋势。潜在租户在金融 海嘨影响下显得非常谨慎，对业主的租赁优惠要求继 续扩大，在此因素下迫使整体平均租金下跌；本季度 整体平均租金为人民币每平方米约120元，比上季度 下跌6.02%。经过上季的调整，天河区租金跌势已为 本季度下跌最小的区域，录得跌幅约5.94%，其次是 越秀区下跌幅度约8.21%，租金下跌最多为海珠区， 录得10.53%跌幅。预计未来新增甲级办公楼将越来越 多，租金下调幅度压力仍然存在 售价趋势 本季度，投资市场仍然淡静，缺乏市场需求的支撑， 加上外围经济未明朗，使整体甲级办公楼的平均价格 持轻微下降态势；2009年第一季度甲级办公楼平均售 价约为人民币每平方米17,754元，比上季下跌约2.79 个百分点。相比上季下跌幅度已大大收窄。由于租金 下调幅度比售价多，本季度，回报率有轻微回落 price trend The low transaction volume which demonstrates lack of demand, and the global economic uncertainty have led the investment market to re- main very quiet in this quarter. The overall average price of Grade A offce building has had a slight decrease. In 1Q 2009, the average price of Grade A offce building was about RMB 17,754 per sq m, down ap- proximately 2.79% q-o-q, and the falling gap has narrowed compared to last quarter. As the rent has decreased substantially over the selling price the yield has experienced a slight drop in this quarter. Table 2 Guangzhou Grade A Offce Average Effective Rent by Districts 表2广州甲級辦公樓分區平均租金 Source: Colliers International Guangzhou 数据来源:广州高力国际 District 分区 Tianhe 天河 Yuexiu 越秀 Haizhu 海珠 Average Effective Rent (RMB/sq m/m) 平均实际租金(人民币/平方米/月) 130 99 85 Figure 3 Guangzhou Grade A Office Rental 图3广州甲级写字楼市场租金30 60 90 120 150 180 200420052006200720082009 Q1 RMB / sq m / m 人民幣 / 平方 米 / 月 267 offices in 57 coUntries on 6 continents Usa 95 canada 17 latin america 17 asia pacifc 52 eMea 85 $1.6 billion in annual revenue 672.9 million square feet under management 10,171 professionals contact inforMation eric lam General Manager South China Tel:86 20 38193888 Fax: 86 20 38193899 Eric.Lam@colliers bryan chan Associate Director Consultancy & Project Advisory Tel:86 20 38193888 Fax: 86 20 38193899 Bryan.Chan@colliers this report and other research materials may be found on our website at .Questions related to information herein should be directed to the research department at the number indicated above.this document has been prepared by colliers international for advertising and general information only.colliers international makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability.any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.colliers international excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms