Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research 数据来源: 上海高力国际研究部 OVERALL MARKET REVIEW The downtrend in the Shanghai Grade A offce market continued in Q1 , manifested in marked contraction in new demand and continuous fall in rental. Although the leasing market turned relatively more active after the Chinese New Year, most of the transactions came from lease renewals or relocation demand due to downgrading. As for new supply, there were 2 projects completed during the quarter. Yet unsatisfactory pre-lease conditions resulted an average vacancy rate higher than 50%. In this quarter, some landlords succumbed to the slack market condition by reducing asking rental by a larger extent as well as accepting deeper bargain by tenants. This suggested that the landlords have become more pragmatic, and are willing to adopt price cutting strategy to attract or retain tenants. 整体市场回顾 1季度上海甲级办公楼市场延续08年4季度的下降态势，新增 需求同比大幅减少，租金则继续下跌。虽然春节后成交趋于活跃， 但大多来自续约或租户对办公楼的降级租赁。同期有2栋写字楼交 付使用，但预租效果并不理想，其平均空置率超过50% 由于目前市场快速下滑，本季度甲级写字楼业主大幅调低报价，同 时也愿意接受更大的议价空间。这说明业主已接受市场下行的现 实，并为吸引或留住租户而全面采取务实的降价策略 COLLIERS InTERnATIOnAL | ShAnghAI gRAdE A OffICE | fIRST QUARTER | Shanghai Grade A Offce Market ×× Major Offce data and Indicators 办公楼市场主要数据指标 HIGHLIGHTS The downtrend in the Shanghai’s grade A offce mar- ket continued in Q1 . new demand contracted markedly, which accounted for only 3% of that in the same period last year. Vacancy rate in Q1hit 12.3%, a record high since . Owing to abundant new supply, the vacancy rate in Pudong was much higher than that in Puxi. Average rental in Q1declined further by 6.2% QoQ. The effective rental of almost all the grade A offce buildings, including the Premium grade A offces, was below RMB 10/sq m/day. So far the Premium grade A office market was impacted more than the ordinary grade A office market. Amidst keener competition, rental gap be- tween the two sub-markets will be narrowed further. Lower rent of Premium grade A offces will provide good opportunity for tenants to upgrade. ±¨ 1季度，上海甲级办公楼市场延续上季度 的下行态势，新增需求大幅萎缩，仅占去年同期 的3％左右 1季度总体空置率创至以来新高，达到 12.3％。较多的新增供应使浦东空置率大大高 于浦西 租金继续全线下跌，几乎所有甲级写字楼，包 括超甲级写字楼的实际平均租金已降至每天每 平米人民币10元以下，整体市场租金季度环比 下跌6.2％ 目前来看，超甲级写字楼所受冲击大于普通甲级 写字楼。面对日益激烈的竞争，这两个细分市场 的租金差距将进一步缩小。超甲级写字楼租金下 调将有利于部分租户提升办公环境 Q-o-Q change环比增长 -6.2%-18.2% +2.1%+8.6% Rental 租金 Vacancy Rate 空置率 Capital Value 售价 gross Yield 收益率 Y-o-Y change同比增长 Outlook for next Year预期 (percentage point百分点) (percentage point百分点) note: * The few sales transactions rendered the calculation of an average price little reference value but capital value is expected to trend down. 注：*因本季度买卖成交非常少，对于计算平均价格的参考意义不大。 但整体市价呈下降趋势 COLLIERS InTERnATIOnAL2 The Knowledge Report | First Quarter || Grade A Offce MARKET UPdATE: SUPPLY, dEMAnd & VACAnCY Two new buildings, Gubei International Fortune Center Phase 1 in Changning and BEA Finance Tower in Lujiazui, were completed in Q1 , and added around 90,000 sq m new offce space to the market. Although completions of the two projects had been delayed somewhat, their average vacancy rate was still high, at over 50% amidst the subdued market condition. The leasing market turned relatively more active after the Chinese New Year, but that could not be considered as a genuine sign of improvement. First, most of the transactions came from lease renewals as Q1 used to be a common expiry date of most leases. Secondly, a lot of new leases were from relocation demand due to downgrading amidst cost cutting or consolidation of operations by tenants. The vacancy rate hit a record high since , at 12.3% in Q1 , around 2 percentage points higher than the preceding quarter. New take-up totaled less than 3,500 sq m and accounted for only around 3% of that in the same period inand . This refected that new demand growth virtually held stagnant. Analysed by region, the vacancy rate in Pudong reached 16.5%, much higher than the 9.7% in Puxi. Analysed by building quality, the overall occupancy of Premium Grade A offces declined, with vacancy rate surging to 14.0%, while vacancy rate of the ordinary Grade A offce market registered marginal increase to 11.4% amidst completions of two new Grade A offce buildings. It is noteworthy that in Q1the vacancy rate of Premium Grade A offces exceeded that in the ordinary Grade A offces for the frst time since . This indicated that the Premium Grade A offce market, wherein foreign fnancial institutions, consultancy frms, etc, concentrated, was more impacted by the fnancial crisis and thus displayed larger volatility. 市场动态: 供应，需求及空置情况 本季度共有2栋写字楼交付使用，分别是位于长宁的古北财富 中心一期和位于陆家嘴的东亚银行金融大厦，共为市场带来约 90,000平方米的新增供应。尽管这些项目较原计划延迟上市，但 由于市场环境不佳，目前其平均空置率仍然超过50% 进入2月以来，市场成交明显趋于活跃，但这并不说明市场回 暖。其一，目前的成交很多来自续约，第一季度本是到期续约的 高峰期；其二，部分企业为节省成本，整合或缩小办公地点，甚 至迁至租金更低廉的地段 1季度总体空置率创至以来新高，达到12.3％，较上季度 上升约2个百分点。新增吸纳量不足3,500平方米，仅占 和同期的3％左右，说明新增需求几乎停止增长。区域方 面，浦东空置率达16.5％，大大高于浦西9.7％的水平 从不同级别市场来看，1季度超甲级写字楼的整体租赁面积出现 下滑，空置率升至14.0％。而由于2栋新增供应上市，普通甲级 写字楼空置率上升至11.4％。值得一提的是，自4季度开 始超甲级写字楼空置率已经超过普通甲级写字楼，这是以 来其首次反超。这说明面对国际金融危机，外资金融、咨询等高 端服务业租户集中的超甲级写字楼受影响更严重，波动也更大。