本文主要研究两个问题:一是钢铁行业碳减排驱动因素分析,二是碳
减排路径研究。首先,论文对相关概念进行界定,提出了本文依据的理论
基础与方法,并对国内外相关文献研究成果进行了综述;其次,对钢铁行
业以及碳排放碳减排的现状进行分析,从中梳理出碳减排目前存在的主要
问题;再次,运用LMDI方法,构建具体的碳减排驱动因素模型,对钢铁
行业碳减排驱动因素进行了理论与实证分析;再次,建立LEAP模型,通
过构建一个基准情景和三个政策情景进行模拟分析,提出钢铁行业碳减排
的路径;最后,论文根据对驱动因素及路径选择对实证研究结果提出了与
之相对应的五个相关建议
I
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
研究结果表明:(1)钢铁行业碳减排驱动因素由高到低分别为能源
效率、结构及规模效应。随着行业发展,碳排放量持续增加,上述三个因
素产生了巨大的拉动作用。受到行业自身属性及特点的影响,煤炭能源为
核心的消费结构较为稳定,改善难度很大,且从贡献率层面上来看,结构
对碳排放的影响非常有限。要想控制碳排放量,要将注意力放在单位产量
能耗上,其会对碳减排具有拉动作用,能够有效抑制碳排放量。(2)借
助LEAP模型,研究钢铁行业节能减排的路径,结果发现,行业还具有非
&39;
常大的节能减排潜能,不同政策在实践应用中产生的效果也不同,效果最
好的就是碳交易市场情景,它能够降低钢铁企业能源成本,对于培养企业
在碳减排方面主动意识具有积极意义,其次分别是产能、技术及基准情景
关键词:钢铁行业,碳排放,碳减排,驱动因素,路径
II ABSTRACT
STUDY ON DRIVING FACTORS AND PATHS OF CARBON
REDUCTION IN IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY
ABSTRACT
As the world&39;s largest developing country, China&39;s development in recent
years for all to see. With the increasing strength of the country, the
environmental impact of development is also growing. China&39;s steel industry
as the representative of the heavy industry in the country has played a crucial
role in building, but also brought to the energy consumption can’t be ignored
and carbon emissions. China in the middle of industrialization and
urbanization, iron and steel production and sales, the steel industry&39;s carbon
emissions is about 15% of the national total emissions. In recent years,
although China&39;s iron and steel industry has achieved good results, but the
industry average energy consumption per ton of steel is still higher than the
international advanced level of about 15%,average carbon dioxide emissions
per ton of steel about 2.It, while the advanced level is only 1.7t.So the
completion of the iron and steel industry, carbon emission reduction targets is
to achieve our goal of total carbon emission reduction an important part.
This paper mainly studies two problems: one is the steel industry carbon
reduction drive factor analysis, the second is carbon emissions path.For
defining the relevant concepts, first of all, the thesis put forward in this paper,
based on the theoretical basis and method, and the related literature at home
hi
北京化丄人学硕L-学位论文
and abroad research achievements were summarized;Secondly, for the iron
and steel industry and analyze the current situation of carbon emission
reductions, to tease out from carbon emissions at present the main
problems;Again, using LMDI method, constructs the concrete model of
driving factors of carbon emission reduction of carbon steel industry driving
factors in the theory and empirical analysis;Again, LEAP model is set up, by
building a baseline scenario and three policy scenario simulation analysis, put
forward the path of the steel industry carbon emissions;Finally, the paper
based on the result of the empirical research of the driving factors and paths is
put forward five suggestions and at the same time.
The results show that: (1) the steel industry carbon emissions drivers
from high to low energy efficiency, structure and scale effect respectively.With
the development of industry, carbon emissions continue to rise, the above
three factors produced a huge role.Is affected by the industry attributes and
characteristics of coal as the core of the consumption structure is relatively
stable, improve the difficulty is very big, and from the contribution level, the
influence of the structure of carbon emissions is very limited.To control
carbon emissions, will focus on energy consumption per unit output and its
pull function on carbon emission reduction has, can effectively restrain carbon
emissions.(2) with the aid of LEAP model, study the path of the iron and steel
industry energy conservation and emissions reduction, the results show that
the industry has a great potential of energy conservation and emissions
IV ABSTRACT
reduction, the effect of the different policies in the practical application is also
different, the effect is best is carbon trading market, it can reduce energy costs,
iron and steel enterprise to cultivate consciousness of enterprises on active
carbon emission has positive significance, secondly, respectively the capacity,
technology and benchmark.
KEY WORDS: Steel industry, carbon emissions, carbon emissions, driving
factors, path
v ^
目录
第一章绪论 1
1.1研宄背景 1
1.2研宄目的及意义1.2.1研宄目的 2
1.2.2研宄意义 2
1.3研究内容及框架1.4研宄方法 4
1.5论文的创新点 5
1_6本章小结 5
第二章相关理论与国内外研究综述2.1概念界定 7
2.1.1钢铁行业 7
2.1.2碳排放与碳减排2.2相关理论综述 7
2.2.1可持续发展理论2.2.2循环经济理论2.2.3低碳经济理论2.3国内外研宄综述2.3.1国外研究综述2.3.2国内研宄综述2.3.3个人评述 12
2.4本章小结 13
第三章钢铁行业碳减排现状及存在问题分析3.1钢铁行业的发展现状分析3.2钢铁行业碳排放的现状分析3.3钢铁行业碳减排的现状及存在问题分析3.4本章小结 20
第四章钢铁行业碳减排驱动因素分析
21
4.1钢铁行业碳减排驱动因素的理论分析
21
4丄1能源消费结构因素
21
4.1.2能源效率因素
22
4.1.3钢铁生产的工序和工艺因素
22
4.2模型构建 23
4.2.1数据来源 24
VII
北京化丄大学硕1:学位论文
4.2.3实证结论 28
4.3本章小结 28
第五章钢铁行业碳减排路径的选择分析
29
5.1模型构建 29
5.2实证分析 30
5.2.1宏观经济假定
30
5.2.2情景定义 31
5.2.3实证分析 34
5.2.4路径选择 40
5.3本章小结 41
第六章结论与建议
43
.
6.1 43
6.2 MIX 43
6.3研宄的不足
45
参考文献 47
猶 51
研究成果及发表的学术论文
52
导!献 53
作者简介 54
VIII
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
Chapterl Introduction1.1 ResearchBackground1.2 Study of purpose and meaning1.2.1 The purpose of the study1.2.2 The meaning of the study1.3 Research contents and structure1.4 The research methods1.5 The Innovation of the research1.6 The chapter summaryChapter2 Relevant Theoretical and Overseas and domestic literature
review 7
2.1 Concept definition2.1.1 The steel industry2.1.2 The concept of carbon reduction2.2 The related theoretical foundations2.2.1 Sustainable development theory2.2.2 Circular economy theory2.2.3 Low-carbon economic theory2.3 Overseas and domestic literature review
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