March 2017
Research Institute
Thought leadership from Credit Suisse Research
and the world's foremost experts
Emerging Consumer
Survey 2017
2_Emerging Consumer Survey 2017
Introduction
Editorial
We are delighted to present the seventh edition of
the Credit Suisse Research Institute's Emerging
Consumer Survey. This publication traditionally ex-
plores the growth opportunities presented by the
new consumer cultures developing across the
emerging world, which continue to show vastly
different, often more dynamic demographic profiles
compared those of developed economies. The
report reflects an ongoing collaboration between
the Credit Suisse Research Institute and our
research partner, the leading market research firm
Nielsen, which has delivered data from 14,000
face-to-face interviews with consumers across the
emerging economies of Brazil, China, India, Indone-
sia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey as a
basis for our research.
In this year’s edition, our findings suggest that a
consumer culture within emerging markets may be
developing more rapidly than anticipated: a further
10% of surveyed households have succeeded in
entering middle-income territory in the last three
years, creating a consumer base of 1.25 billion
people across the eight countries covered by our
survey alone.
We find the immediate measures of consumer
confidence improving from a year ago, with con-
sumers in the major Asian economies of India,
China and Indonesia reflecting the most optimistic
outlook and topping our emerging consumer score-
card as we look into 2017. More than 40% of
Asian consumers expect to see their financial
circumstances improve in the six months ahead.
We provide a special focus on several key themes
within these countries, the consequences of the
reform to the one-child policy in China or demoneti-
zation and tax reform in India. Generally, there is a
noticeable lifestyle upgrade underway in Asia.
We further observe that pressure has eased for
consumers in commodity-sensitive countries such
as Russia, South Africa and Brazil. Although con-
siderable economic fragility and inequality among
consumers remains here, a firmer growth outlook
supporting commodities and reduced currency risk
offer better consumer prospects for the year ahead.
In contrast, consumer confidence in Turkey and
Mexico has declined markedly. Whereas geopoliti-
cal concerns are weighing on the consumer in the
former, the protectionist and anti-immigration
rhetoric of the new US administration is at work in
the latter.
Interestingly, we observe the ongoing changing
pattern in the spending of the emerging middle
class. Spending on travel and entertainment in
China is booming and reached over 10% of house-
hold income. A new theme we find at work is that
of a more conscious consumer, focused on a
more active, healthy lifestyle and one engaged with
the sharing economy. Local rather than global com-
panies and brands are emerging to capitalize on this
trend. Also importantly, digital technology is and will
continue to be the facilitator of changing consumer
behavior with more than a billion consumers yet to
come online in our surveyed countries. We estimate
that online retail spending can rise from a current
USD 1 trillion to USD 2.5 trillion by 2025.
Finally, these themes are elements of the
broader rebalancing in growth we are witnessing in
the emerging world from its undue reliance on fixed
investment and external trade to more domestic
consumption. This provides a powerful internal
dynamic to growth in the countries concerned
–a feature of considerable significance should the
global economic landscape become more multi-
polar and less globalized in nature, as is currently
the debate.
We hope that our analysis helps our readers
better understand the nature of these dynamic
economies and that you enjoy reading the 2017
Emerging Consumer Survey.
Urs Rohner
Chairman
Credit Suisse Research Institute
Emerging Consumer Survey 2017_3
02 Editorial
05 The emerging consumer in 2016
14 Conscious living
24 E-commerce: New challenges
36 National champions: Local brand
winners
44 Asia in focus
56 Country profiles
56 Brazil: Outlook to gradually improve
58 China: Lifestyle upgrades
60 India: Still reigning supreme
62 Indonesia: Greater expectations for
the future
64 Mexico: Real incomes under pressure
66 Russia: The future looks brighter
68 South Africa: Challenges remain
70 Turkey: Consumer confidence weakens
73 Appendix 1: Spending heat maps
75 Appendix 2: Profiling the consumer
76 About the survey
77 Imprint
78 Disclaimer
For more information, please contact:
Richard Kersley, Head Global Thematic Research,
Credit Suisse Investment Banking,
richard.kersley@credit-suisse
Michael O’Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer,
International Wealth Management Division,
Credit Suisse,
michael.o’sullivan@credit-suisse
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Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2017
Number of respondents : 13,874, across 8 countries, 69% in urban areas; 31% in rural areas
Mexico (11%*)
No. of respondents: 1,539
Locations:5
Urban areas:70%
Rural areas:30%
Brazil (11%*)
No. of respondents: 1,550
Locations:5
Urban areas:70%
Rural areas:30%
Turkey (11%*)
No. of respondents: 1,521
Locations:14
Urban areas:69%
Rural areas:31%
Russia (11%*)
No. of respondents: 1,516
Locations:8
Urban areas:67%
Rural areas:33%
China (18%*)
No. of respondents: 2,561
Locations:10
Urban areas:70%
Rural areas:30%
South Africa (7%*)
No. of respondents: 1,000
Locations:6
Urban areas:70%
Rural areas:30%
India (19%*)
No. of respondents: 2,653
Locations:10
Urban areas:71%
Rural areas:29%
Indonesia (11%*)
No. of respondents: 1,534
Locations:10
Urban areas:66%
Rural areas:34%
Note: % of survey sampled from this country
4_Emerging Consumer Survey 2017
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