Jacques Bughin | Brussels
Eric Hazan | Paris
Sree Ramaswamy | Washington, DC
Michael Chui | San Francisco
Tera Allas | London
Peter Dahlstrm | London
Nicolaus Henke | London
Monica Trench | London
DISCUSSION PAPER
JUNE 2017
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
THE NEXT DIGITAL
FRONTIER
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1McKinsey Global Institute
CopyrightMcKinsey & Company 2017
Since its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought
to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the
business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, MGI aims
to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts
and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. The Lauder
Institute at the University of Pennsylvania ranked MGI the world’s number-one
private-sector think tank in its 2016 Global Think Tank Index for the second
consecutive year.
MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management,
employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business
leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic
industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces
affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have
covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses
on six themes: productivity and growth, natural resources, labor markets, the
evolution of global fnancial markets, the economic impact of technology and
innovation, and urbanization.
Recent reports have assessed the economic benefts of tackling gender
inequality, a new era of global competition, Chinese innovation, and
digital globalization. MGI is led by four McKinsey and Company senior
partners: JacquesBughin, JamesManyika, JonathanWoetzel, and
FrankMattern, MGI’s chairman. MichaelChui, SusanLund, AnuMadgavkar,
SreeRamaswamy, and JaanaRemes serve as MGI partners. Project
teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows and include
consultants from McKinsey offces around the world. These teams draw on
McKinsey’s global network of partners and industry and management experts.
Input is provided by the MGI Council, which coleads projects and provides
guidance; members are AndresCadena, SandrineDevillard, RichardDobbs,
KatyGeorge, RajatGupta, EricHazan, EricLabaye, AchaLeke, ScottNyquist,
GaryPinkus, OliverTonby, and EckartWindhagen. In addition, leading
economists, including Nobel laureates, act as research advisers.
McKinsey & Company is a member of the Partnership on AI, a collection of
companies and non-profts that have committed to sharing best practices
and communicating openly about the benefts and risks of artifcial
intelligence research. The partners of McKinsey fund MGI’s research; it is not
commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.
For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit
mckinsey/mgi.
CONTENTS
Preface
In brief
1. Artifcial intelligence is getting ready for business, but
are businesses ready for AI
Page 6
2. Artifcial intelligence promises to boost profts and
transform industries
Page 20
3. Businesses, developers, and governments need to act
now to realize AI’s full potential
Page 31
Appendix A: Five case studies
Page 42
Retail
Page 42
Electric utility
Page 47
Manufacturing
Page 53
Health care
Page 58
Education
Page 65
Appendix B: Technical appendix
Page 70
Bibliography
Page 73
PREFACE
In this independent discussion paper, we examine investment in artifcial intelligence (AI),
describe how it is being deployed by companies that have started to use these technologies
across sectors, and aim to explore its potential to become a major business disrupter. To
do this, we looked at AI through several lenses. We analyzed the total investment landscape
bringing together both investment of large corporations and funding from venture capital
and private equity funds. We also reviewed the portfolio plays of major internet companies,
the dynamics in AI ecosystems from Shenzhen to New York, and a wide range of case
studies. As part of our primary research, we surveyed more than 3,000 senior executives
on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s
impact on markets, governments, and individuals. This report also leverages the resources
of McKinsey Analytics, a global practice that helps clients achieve better performance
through data. The research was conducted jointly with Digital McKinsey, a global practice
that designs and implements digital transformations.
In addition to identifying a gap between AI investment and commercial application, which
is typical of early technology development curves, we found that the new generation of AI
applications is based on the foundation of digitization. Leading sectors in digital tend to be
leading sectors in AI, and these are predicted to drive growth. We also found that AI has
the potential to accelerate shifts in market share, revenue, and proft pools—all hallmarks
of digitally disrupted sectors. This report leverages two MGI analyses of digitization,
Digital
America: A tale of the haves and have-mores
, published in December 2015, and
Digital
Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefts
, published in June 2016. These reports
introduced the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) Industry Digitization Index, which combines
dozens of indicators to provide a comprehensive picture of where and how companies are
building digital assets, expanding digital usage, and creating a more digital workforce. This
report also builds on MGI’s work on advanced analytics,
The age of analytics: Competing
in a data-driven world
, published in December 2016, and on automation,
A future that
works: Automation, employment, and productivity
, published in January 2017, as well as
Artifcial intelligence: Implications for China
, published in April 2017; and an April 2017 Digital
McKinsey report,
Smartening up with artifcial intelligence (AI): What’s in it for Germany and
its industrial sector
This latest research has been led by JacquesBughin, an MGI senior partner based in
Brussels; EricHazan, a member of the MGI Council and a McKinsey senior partner based
in Paris; SreeRamaswamy, an MGI partner based in Washington, DC; MichaelChui,
an MGI partner based in San Francisco; TeraAllas, an MGI visiting fellow in London;
PeterDahlstrm, a McKinsey senior partner in London; NicolausHenke, a McKinsey senior
partner based in London; and MonicaTrench, a McKinsey consultant based in London. The
project team comprised MathildeCastet, FranoisAllaindesBeauvais, LindsayMacdonald,
OlegPynda, DariuszSmolen, and JordanWard. Sincere thanks go to TimothyBeacom,
AprilCheng, Paul-LouisCaylar, and HugoWeber. We would also like to thank MGI senior
editor MarkA.Stein; MattCooke, MGI director of external communications; MGI visual
graphics specialist MarisaCarder, designer MargoShimasaki, and infographic designers
RichardJohnson and JasonLeder; MGI editorial production manager JuliePhilpot; and
DeadraHenderson, MGI manager of personnel and administration.
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