Artificial intelligence:
opportunities and
implications for the future of
decision making
Government Office for Science
Artificial intelligence: opportunities and implications for the future of decision making
Foreword
We are in currently in the foothills of a new technological revolution. Artificial intelligence has the
potential to be as transformative in our lifetimes as the steam-powered economy of the 19th
century.
Already it’s letting us to talk to our smartphones, recommending us music, describing photos for
the visually impaired and flagging up fire risks in cities.
In the near future we could see it deployed in everything from driverless cars, tointelligent
energy grids, to the eradication of infectious diseases.
In government too we are looking at the potential applications of this technology in the delivery
of public services.
Our Government Data Programme is increasing the number of projects and data scientists in
government, while playing a leading role in establishing the appropriate use of these powerful
new tools.
As one the world’s leading digital nations, artificial intelligence presents a huge opportunity for
the UK.
Get this right, and we can create a more prosperous economy with better and more fulfilling
jobs. We can protect our environment by using resources more efficiently. And we can make
government smarter, using the power of data to improve our public services.
As we've seen already in many areas, much routine cognitive work - the filing, sifting and sorting
- can increasingly be automated, freeing people up to focus on the more human aspects of any
job.
The Prime Minister has announced an independent review of modern employment practices, so
that the support we provide businesses and workers keeps pace with changes in the labour
market and the economy.
Artificial intelligence also poses new questions about ethics and governance, the responsible
use of data and strong cyber defences. To realise the full potential of this revolution, again we
have to be ready with answers.
I am pleased that the Royal Society and the British Academy are conducting a review that will
consider how best the UK might manage the use of artificial intelligence.
This note sets out where the science is heading, describes some of the implications for society
and government, and shows how we can responsibly use this technology to improve the lives
and living standards of everyone in Britain.
It is a timely and important piece of work from the Government Chief Scientific Adviser.
Matt Hancock
Minister for Digital and Culture
Artificial intelligence: opportunities and implications for the future of decision making
Contents
Foreword . 2
Introduction ........ 4
What is artificial intelligence ... 4
Artificial intelligence for innovation and productivity . 8
The use of artificial intelligence by government........... 10
Effects on labour markets ....... 12
New challenges14
Public dialogue ........... 17
Conclusion ........ 18
Annex A: Background .. 19
Annex B: Sources ........ 20
Artificial intelligence: opportunities and implications for the future of decision making
Introduction
Artificial intelligence has arrived. In the online world it is already a part of everyday life, sitting
invisibly behind a wide range of search engines and online commerce sites. It offers huge
potential to enable more efficient and effective business and government but the use of artificial
intelligence brings with it important questions about governance, accountability and ethics.
Realising the full potential of artificial intelligence and avoiding possible adverse consequences
requires societies to find satisfactory answers to these questions. This report sets out some
possible approaches, and describes some of the ways government is already engaging with
these issues.
Artificial intelligence is not a distinct technology. It depends for its power on a number of
prerequisites: computing power, bandwidth, and large-scale data sets, all of which are elements
of ‘big data’, the potential of which will only be realised using artificial intelligence. If data is the
fuel, artificial intelligence is the engine of the digital revolution.
Much has already been written about the use of artificial intelligence and big data. This paper
does not attempt to survey the whole field. Its origins lie in a seminar held at the British
Academy in February 2016, chaired by Mark Walport, Government Chief Scientific Adviser and
Mark Sedwill, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, that discussed some of the legal and
ethical issues around the use of artificial intelligence. The issues discussed there provide the
core of this report, with additional material drawn from the views of a wide range of scientific
and legal experts in the field, although we have sought to minimise detailed discussion of
technical aspects in order to concentrate on the practical aspects of the debate. We hope that it
serves as an introduction to the topic.
The report considers the following questions:
Sir Mark Walport
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Mark Sedwill
Permanent Secretary, Home OfficeArtificial intelligence: opportunities and implications for the future of decision making
What is artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is more than the simple automation of existing processes: it involves, to
greater or lesser degrees, setting an outcome and letting a computer program find its own way
there. It is this creative capacity that gives artificial intelligence its power. But it also challenges
some of our assumptions about the role of computers and our relationship to them.
Artificial intelligence is particularly useful
for sorting data, finding patterns and
making predictions. Current examples in
everyday life are widespread: they include
translation and speech recognition
services that learn from language online,
search engines that rank websites on their
relevance to the user, and filters for email
spam that recognise junk mail based on
previous examples (see box for more
uses). This list of applications is growing
rapidly: artificial intelligence is enabling a
new wave of innovation across every
sector of the UK economy.
Artificial intelligence is a broad term (see
box). More generally it refers to the
analysis of data to model some aspect of
the world. Inferences from these models
are then used to predict and anticipate
possible future events.
Statistical models are created using series of algorithms, or step-by-step instructions that
computers can follow to perform a particular task. Computer algorithms are powerful tools for
automating many aspects of life today, taking the step-by-step routines that underpin the
administrative and operational tasks of organisations and digitising them, making them faster
and more consistent. One approach to automation is to choose a series of rules to apply to
inputs, leading a particular output. Most current medical self-diagnosis systems, both in books
and online, use this logic. Certain combinations of answers to questions are deterministically
linked to certain individual outputs. If you provide the same answers again, the algorithm will
show the same result.
Some uses of artificial intelligence
Product recommendations from services such as Netflix
and Amazon thatevolvethrough users’ web experiences
are powered by machine learning.
The UK’s ‘smart motorways’use feedback on road
conditions from embedded sensors and neural network
systems to anticipate and manage traffic flow.
In financial markets, ‘high-frequency trading’ algorithms
use pre-determined decision criteria to respond to mar