本文采用 “自上而下”的投资分析方法。首先，分析国内外经济背景及安防行业
发展现状，并对安防行业未来发展潜力及趋势进行评价，为评估大华股份价值奠定基
础；其次，分析公司的基本面和经营状况，并运用“九力模型”，确定其市场竞争力；
第三，运用市盈率估值模型，以财务数据为依据，对大华股份的投资价值进行评估；
最后，将计算结果与同行业其他上市公司进行对比分析，确定大华股份是否具备投资
价值
本文结论：第一，2016 年 12 月 30 日（2016 年股市最后一个交易日），大华股份
股票的理论价值估值是 19.05 元，而 2016 年 12 月 30 日该股票的收盘价为 13.68 元，
推荐投资者买入。第二，大华股份作为安防行业龙头，其卓越的成长能力和良好的经
营业绩将持续表现在股价上，建议投资者长期持有
本文研究的意义：一方面，通过对大华股份投资价值的分析，探究适合安防行业
特点的投资价值评价方法；另一方面，帮助投资者了解大华股份的行业竞争力及经营
情况，为投资者提供科学、合理的投资建议
关键词：大华股份，市盈率模型，价值研究ABSTRACT
III
ABSTRACT
Security demand has been one of the basic needs of humankind since ancient times. With
more and more serious situation of international anti-terrorism, and stronger and stronger
security awareness in domestic security, security products and services have a big
self-evident importance. With continuous updates of people&39;s safe requirement in society,
security industry market had become one of the fastest growing markets, security industry
stocks are also being favored in the securities market. This paper chooses the listed
company Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. (Dahua shares, code: 002236.SZ) as
research object, studies and analyzes its investment value by studying the knowledge
which learned during the MBA period.
This paper uses the top-down investment analysis method. First, analysis domestic and
international economic background and security industry development status, and evaluate
potentials and trend in future of security industry. Second, analyze Dahua company&39;s
fundamental state and operating conditions, to assess Dahua shares competitiveness in the
market by Nine force model. Third, based on DaHua Shares’ financial data, assess its
investment value by P/E valuation model. Finally, compare and verify the evaluation
results, to determine the necessary of investment value of DaHua shares.
The conclusion of this paper: first, on December 30
th
in 2016 (the stock market in 2016 last
trading day), the theoretical value of Dahua shares is 19.05 yuan, while in December 30th,
2016 the stock&39;s closing price of 13.68 yuan, recommended investors to buy. Second, as
the leader of this industry, Dahua shares’ excellent growth capacity and good business
performance will continue to be expressed in the stock price, the investors can choose
long-term holding.
The significance of this study: on the one hand, through the analysis of the investment
value of UOB shares, investment value evaluation method suitable for the characteristics
of the security industry; on the other hand, to help investors understand the Dahua shares
industry competitiveness and operating conditions, to provide scientific and reasonable
investment advice to investors.西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文
IV
Key words: Dahua shares,P / E model,value study.插图索引
V
插图索引
图 1.1 论文研究思路框架图.........5
图 1.2 论文研究内容框架图.........6
图 3.1 我国近几年 GDP 季度统计图.....15
图 3.2 2011 至今我国 CPI 和 PPI 同比增幅走势 ..........15
图 4.1 2011—2015 年大华股份营业收入变化图 ..........26
图 4.2 2011—2015 年大华股份国内外营业收入变化图 ..........26
图 4.3 2011—2015 年大华股份营业成本变化图 ..........27
图 5.1 2015.08—2016.12 大华股份有限公司股价走势42表格索引
VII
表格索引
表 4.1 大华股份有限公司前十大股东列表.......22
表 4.2 大华股份有限公司历年分红情况列表...23
表 4.3.1 大华股份历年主营构成表一....24
表 4.3.2 大华股份历年主营构成表二....24
表 4.3.3 大华股份历年主营构成表三....24
表 4.4 2016 年度 a&s 全球安防 50 强前五名榜单........31
表 4.5 2015 年国内安防行业上市公司营业收入排名..34
表 4.6 2016 年三季度末国内安防行业上市公司各项指标排名..........34
表 5.1 大华股份利润表摘要.......37
表 5.2 大华股份资产负债表摘要...........38
表 5.3 大华股份每股指标...........38
表 5.4 大华股份与其他同属企业的主营业务范围比较...........43
表 5.5 安防行业估值比较...........43目录
IX
目录
摘要......I
ABSTRACT .. III
插图索引........ V
表格索引......VII
第一章 绪论... 1
1.1 研究的背景及意义........ 1
1.1.1 研究背景 .. 1
1.1.2 研究意义 . 2
1.2 国内外研究现状 2
1.2.1 国外相关理论 ..... 2
1.2.2 国内相关理论 ..... 3
1.3 研究方法和主要内容 ..........
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