Robust Market
Demand, Steady
Increase in Rent
市场需求旺盛，租
金增幅稳定
Xander Gao Analyst | South China高煜辉 分析师 | 华南
Despite new supply of 83,000 sq metres in Q3 2017,
robust demand and a 1.9% QOQ rent increase
occurred in Guangzhou’s Grade A office property
market. We expect total new supply of 62,000 sq
metres to enter the market in Q4 2017. Very heavy
new supply will enter the market in the next three
years and reach a peak in 2020, with over 70% being
launched in Pazhou and International Financial City.
We expect the vacancy rate to remain stable from
2018 to 2019, but then rise in 2020 to the highest
level since 2015 as the new supply peaks. We predict
a 3% to 4% increase in rent over late 2017 and 2018,
but expect rent to face pressure from 2019 as the
market starts to take account of the supply peak in
2020.
广州甲级写字楼物业市场第三季度市场租赁需求旺盛，虽季
内新增8.3万平方米供应，但平均租金仍较第二季度攀升
1.9个百分点。预计约6.2万平方米新增供应会在第四季度
推出市场。未来三年每年均有大量新增供应，并在2020年
达到顶峰，其中超过70%集中在琶洲和国际金融城子市场
预计2018至2019年全市空置率将保持平稳，并于2020年
攀升至自2015年来的历史高位。从2017年底至2018年，
全市平均租金仍有3%至4%的涨幅潜力。由于2020年将有
大量新增供应，租金水平将于2019年开始面临压力
Forecast at a glance 预测一览表
Demand
Supported by sound economy,
market demand is robust and should
be further stimulated by heavy new
supply in the next three years
需求
受稳健的经济支持，租赁需求表现旺盛，未来
三年的大量新增供应将进一步刺激市场需求
Supply
We expect new supply of 62,000 sq
metres (667,400 sq ft) to enter the
market in Q4 2017. Exceeding 0.5
million sq metres (5.38 million sq ft)
per year in 2018 and 2019, new
supply should reach a peak of over
1.0 million sq metres (10.76 million
sq ft) in 2020.
供应
我们预计2017年第四季度将有6.2万平方米
新增供应，2018年和2019年的新增供应均超
过50万平方米，并于2020年突破100万平方
米
Colliers Quarterly
Q3 2017
13 November 2017
GUANGZHOU | OFFICE广州 | 写字楼
2Colliers Quarterly | 13 Nov 2017 | Guangzhou | Office | Colliers International
Vacancy rate
Guangzhou witnessed an 8.7%
vacancy rate at end-Q3, down by
0.6% from end-Q2. We expect a
decline in Q4 2017 because of limited
near-term new supply. Due to heavy
new supply later, the vacancy rate
should remain stable from 2018 to
2019, but then rise in 2020 to the
highest level since 2015.
空置率
本季度广州全市空置率为8.7%，同第二季度相
比下降0.6%。由于近期新增供应有限，我们预
计本年度第四季度空置率将继续下降。由于未
来三年有大量新增供应推出市场，预计2018
至2019年空置率将保持平稳，并于2020年攀
升至自2015年来的历史高位
Rent
Despite total new supply of 83,000 sq
metres (893,100 sq ft) in Q3, average
rent in Guangzhou grew by 1.9%
QOQ. Benefiting from firm economic
growth, we predict a 3% to 4%
growth in rent from end-2017 to end-
2018. But from 2019, average rent
should face pressure.
租金
季内虽有8.3万平方米新增供应，但广州市
平均租金仍录得环比涨幅1.9%。受益于稳健
的经济形势，我们预计2017年底至2018年
底平均租金仍有3%至4%的升幅潜力,但租金
水平将于2019年开始面临压力
Diversity in tenants’ industry;
PRNC dominated the leasing
market
租户产业多样化; 珠江新城为租赁交
易主场
Guangzhou's economic continued growing steadily in
Q3. By Q3 2017, Guangzhou’s GDP reached RMB1.55
trillion (USD233.1 billion), up by 7.3% YOY. Moreover,
fixed asset investment reached RMB397.1 billion
(USD59.8 billion), up by 7.4% YOY. Providing firm
support for Guangzhou’s economy, the added value of
tertiary industry accounted for the 82.4% of total GDP
increase.
Source：Guangzhou Municipal Statistics Bureau
第三季度广州经济继续保持稳健增长，前三季度全市GDP达
15509亿元，同比增长7.3%；全市固定资产投资达3971.35
亿元，同比增长7.4%。第三产业增加值对经济增长的贡献
率达82.4%，对全市经济支撑作用明显
数据来源：广州市统计局
The Yuexiu and Tianhe North Sports Centre districts
recorded stable performance in rent and decreases in
vacancy rate in Q3, which we attribute to their mature
development and to lack of new supply. The vacancy
rates in Yuexiu and Tianhe North Sports Centre were
3.7% and 6.3%, dropped by 0.9% QOQ and 1.3% QOQ
respectively. As the existing core CBD, PRNC witnessed
a 3.7% QOQ increase in rent at RMB 191 per sq metre
per month and a 1.5% QOQ decrease to 8.6% in
vacancy rate in spite of new supply of 23,000 sq metres
(247,500 sq ft). Due to smaller existing stock and new
supply of approximately 60,000 sq metres (645,600 sq
ft), the vacancy rate in Pazhou rose by 6.2% QOQ.
However, considering as the emerging CBD, Pazhou
saw a 1.2% QOQ growth in rent in Q3 2017.
越秀区和天河北体育中心子市场因发展成熟，且季内并无新
增供应，空置率下降，租金持平。越秀区和天河北体育中心
空置率为3.7%与6.3%，环比分别下降0.9%与1.3%。作为核
心商业中心区，珠江新城虽新增2.3万平方米供应，租金仍
录得环比3.7%的涨幅，达191元每平方米每月，空置率环
比下降1.5%，达8.6%。琶洲因总体市场体量相对较小，季
内新增6万平方米供应，空置率环比上升6.2%。但作为新
兴商业中心区，季内租金仍录得1.2%的涨幅
3Colliers Quarterly | 13 Nov 2017 | Guangzhou | Office | Colliers International
Vacancy Rate and Rent 空置率及平均租金
Submarket
Rent
(RMB/sq
m/month)
QOQ
Change
(%)
Vacancy
Rate
(%)
QOQ
Change
(%)
Pazhou 131 ↑1.2% 19.5% ↑6.2%
PRNC 191 ↑3.7% 8.6% ↓1.5%
NTSC 162 ↑0.3% 6.3% ↓1.3%
Yuexiu 124 ↓0.8% 3.7% ↓0.9%
Overall 170 ↑1.9% 8.7% ↓0.6%
Source: Colliers International Guangzhou Research
子市场
平均租金
（元/平方
米/月）
环比
变化
（%）
空置率
（%）
环比
变化
（%）
琶洲 131 ↑1.2% 19.5% ↑6.2%
珠江新城 191 ↑3.7% 8.6% ↓1.5%
天河北
体育中心 162 ↑0.3% 6.3% ↓1.3%
越秀 124 ↓0.8% 3.7% ↓0.9%
全市 170 ↑1.9% 8.7% ↓0.6%
数据来源：广州高力国际研究部
Market demand was robust and tenant industries
showed diversity, ranging from real estate, technology,
retail and trade, to finance and others. Based on
recorded leasing transactions, over half of leasing areas
came from the real estate and technology sectors, which
represented 28% and 23% respectively.
季内租赁需求旺盛，租户产业类别呈多元化，包含房地产、
科技、金融、零售贸易等行业。根据本季录得的市场交易信
息，超过一半的交易面积来自于房地产业和科技业，各占
28%和23%
There were five leasing transactions in the real estate
industry whose leasing areas exceeded 2,000 sq m
(21,500 sq ft). Jiujiantang Workspace occupied 7,200 sq
m (77,500 sq ft) at International Metropolitan Plaza;
BeePlus leased International Financial Centre 2,991 sq
m (32,200 sq ft) ; Shenzhen Hailifeng Company took
2,300 sq m (24,800 sq ft) at Teem Tower; International
Teochow Youth Investment Group Limited leased 2300
sq m (24,800 sq ft) at Zhukong International Center;
ATLAS leased 2,200 sq m (23,700 sq ft) at GTland Plaza
H Building. Shenzhen Hailifeng Company located in
NTSC while the remaining four tenants chose PRNC.
BeePlus and ATLAS both are co-working operators.
BeePlus marched in Guanghzhou Grade A office for the
first time while ATLAS acquired the third spot in PRNC.
房地产业超过2000平方米的交易共有5宗，分别为：玖间
堂于珠江新城的环球都会广场租赁7,200平方米；蜜蜂科技
有限公司于珠江新城的广州国际金融中心租赁2,991平方
米；深圳海利丰实业有限公司于天河北体育中心的粤海天河
城大厦租赁2,300平方米；潮青投资在珠控国际中心租赁
2,300平方米；寰图在珠江新城的高德置地广场H塔租赁
2,200平方米。除深圳海利丰实业有限公司落户天河北天河
体育中心子市场以外，其余4项交易均在珠江新城。蜜蜂科
技有限公司为首次进军广州CBD甲级写字楼，此次寰图是在
珠江新城拿下的