本文从投资人的角度出发，先是选择并确定了用三角模糊数层次
分析法作为分析平台风险的主要研究方法，再通过搜集大量平台的基
础数据，找出影响平台投资风险的各项基本因素，建立起了相应的层
次分析法评价模型，然后经过业内多位专家的三角模糊数打分，通过
矩阵运算后，得到了各项基本因素对目标值（投资风险）的权重，最
终得出了计算网贷平台投资风险值的方法
本文最后还通过与第三方机构评价排名的对比，来说明本文三角
模糊数层次分析法用于网贷平台投资风险分析是可靠的，有效的。并
站在投资人、平台、监管层的角度针对不同风险值的平台分别给予了
较为合理的投资、改进和管控三方面的建议。本文的研究可以为国内
网贷平台投资风险分析以及为投资人鉴别投资风险，选择可靠的平台
提供重要的参考价值
关键词：网络借贷，P2P 网贷平台，投资风险，三角模糊数，层
次分析法
论文类型：应用/专题研究IV
INVESTMENT RISK ASSESSMENT
OF DOMESTIC P2P LENDING PLATFORMS
BASED ON TRIANGULAR FUZZY NUMBER
ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms, many
individual investors with idle money and borrowers pressed for cash can be matched
quickly through the P2P lending platforms. Thus P2P lending platforms improve the
efficiency of social funds and provide more investment channels for different kinds of
investors with an appropriate return rate. However, investors face different investment
risks since different P2P lending platforms operated under different operation modes.
Some P2P lending platforms close down and take away the funds of the investors.
Specially, many illegal lending platforms infiltrated into the market and swindled
much money from the investors. Thus it is necessary to identify the investment risks
of P2P lending platforms.
From the perspectives of the investors, the paper uses triangular fuzzy number
analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as the main research method to analyze the
investment risk of P2P lending platforms. We collect much operation data of the
platforms to identify the basic factors that affect the platform investment risk and
build up the corresponding AHP evaluation model. Then the paper handles evaluation
scores of several experts in the industry. The weights of the basic factors to the target
value (investment risk) are also considered. All data are analyzed through the matrix
operation.
The paper also illustrates the reasonability of triangular fuzzy number AHP for
analyzing the investment risks of P2P lending platforms through the comparison with
third-party assessments and rankings. The paper further provides management
suggestions for investors, platforms, and governments. The research of this paper can
provide an important reference for the investment risk analysis of the P2P lending
platform and the identification of the investment risk for the investors.
KEY WORDS:Network borrowing;P2P lending platform;Investment risk;
Triangular fuzzy numbers; Analytic hierarchy process
TYPE OF DISSERTATION / THESIS: Application research浙江工业大学硕士论文 基于三角模糊数层次分析法的国内网贷平台投资风险评价
V
目 录
1 绪论..........1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.2 国内外文献综述 3
1.2.1 国内外研究现状.....3
1.2.2 文献评述.....6
1.3 研究目标、内容及思路 7
1.4 创新之处 8
2 相关理论与研究方法.....9
2.1 常用风险评价方法比较 9
2.2 引入模糊数学的层次分析法.. 13
2.3 三角模糊数层次分析法的计算原理.. 14
2.3.1 三角模糊数的定义...........14
2.3.2 三角模糊数的运算法则...15
2.3.3 三角模糊数相关定理.......15
2.3.4 三角模糊数计算过程.......15
3 国内网贷平台发展概况及投资风险分析...... 18
3.1 网贷平台基本运营模式.......... 18
3.2 网贷平台发展现状...... 19
3.3 网贷行业爆发的原因.. 21
3.4 国内网贷平台投资风险界定.. 24
4 国内网贷平台风险评估实证研究.......31
4.1 风险评估指标的选取与处理.. 31
4.2 基于三角模糊数层次分析法的风险评估模型实证研究...... 33
4.2.1 构建矩阵...33
4.2.2 矩阵计算...35
4.3 模型运行结果与分析.. 37
4.3.1 指标层因素计算方法.......37
4.3.2 样本平台投资风险值计算...........38
4.3.3 模型运算结果有效性评价...........44
4.3.4 样本平台投资风险分析...45
5 国内网贷投资及风险管控建议...........48浙江工业大学硕士论文 基于三角模糊数层次分析法的国内网贷平台投资风险评价
VI
5.1 对投资人的建议.......... 48
5.2 对平台自身的建议...... 49
5.3 对监管部门的建议...... 50
6 研究结论及展望...........52
6.1 结论...... 52
6.2 不足之处及展望.......... 52
参考文献... 54
附录56
致 谢..........60浙江工业大学硕士论文 基于三角模糊数层次分析法的国内网贷平台投资风险评价
VII
图、表目录
图 2.1 递阶层次结构........16
图 3.1 网贷平台运作模型..........18
图 3.2 各年网贷平台运营数量..20
图 3.3 各年网贷行业成交量走势..........20
图 3.4 2016 年网贷行业成交量走势.....20
图 3.5 各年网贷行业贷款余额走势......21
图 3.6 各年网贷行业收益率走势.........21
图 4.1 网贷平台投资风险评价模型......33
图 4.2 各大第三方机构排名与本文排名对比..45
表 1.1 典型风险事件回顾.........
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看
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