Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
For use at 10:00 a.m., EST
February 14, 2017
Monetary Policy rePort
February 14, 2017
Letter of transmittaL
Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Washington, D.C., February14, 2017
The President of the Senate
The Speaker of the House of Representatives
The Board of Governors is pleased to submit its
Monetary Policy Report
pursuant to
section 2B of the Federal Reserve Act.
Sincerely,
Janet L. Yellen, Chair
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is frmly committed to fulflling its statutory
mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate
long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public
as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and
businesses, reduces economic and fnancial uncertainty, increases the efectiveness of monetary
policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.
Infation, employment, and long-term interest rates fuctuate over time in response to economic and
fnancial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to infuence economic activity and
prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee’s policy decisions refect its longer-run goals, its medium-
term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the fnancial system that
could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
The infation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the
Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for infation. The Committee reafrms its
judgment that infation at the rate of 2percent, as measured by the annual change in the price
index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the
Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. The Committee would be concerned if infation were running
persistently above or below this objective. Communicating this symmetric infation goal clearly to the
public helps keep longer-term infation expectations frmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability
and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum
employment in the face of signifcant economic disturbances. The maximum level of employment
is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that afect the structure and dynamics of the labor
market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently,
it would not be appropriate to specify a fxed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s policy
decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that
such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a
wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants’
estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four
times per year in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most
recent projections, the median of FOMC participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rate of
unemployment was 4.8percent.
In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of infation from its
longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee’s assessments of its maximum
level. These objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the
Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in
promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially diferent
time horizons over which employment and infation are projected to return to levels judged
consistent with its mandate.
The Committee intends to reafrm these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its
annual organizational meeting each January.
Statement on Longer-run goaLS and monetary PoLicy Strategy
Adopted effective January24, 2012; as amended effective January31, 2017
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the time series in the fgures extend through, for daily data, February9, 2017; for
monthly data, January2017; and, for quarterly data, 2016:Q4. In bar charts, except as noted, the change for a given
period is measured to its fnal quarter from the fnal quarter of the preceding period.
For fgures 14, 33, and 37, note that the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Bank Index are products of S&P Dow
Jones Indices LLC and/or its affliates and have been licensed for use by the Board. Copyright20I7 S&P Dow Jones
Indices LLC, a subsidiary of the McGraw Hill Financial Inc., and/or its affliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution,
reproduction, and/or photocopying in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones
Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices please visit spdji. S&P is
a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow
Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affliates
nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to
accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent, and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices
LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any
errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.
Contents
Summary1
Part 1: Recent Economic and Financial Developments3
Domestic Developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Financial Developments .... 19
International Developments . 24
Part 2: Monetary Policy 29
Part 3: Summary of Economic Projections 33
The Outlook for Economic Activity ........ 34
The Outlook for Infation ... 36
Appropriate Monetary Policy39
Uncertainty and Risks ...... 39
Abbreviations47
List of Boxes
The Recovery from the Great Recession and Remaining Challenges ........ 6
Homeownership by Race and Ethnicity .... 14
Developments Related to Financial Stability . 22
Forecast Uncertainty ....... 45
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看