2017年11月26日
亚洲经济分析
研究报告
2018年展望：亚洲出口型经济体面临资本开支方面的新利好
良好，实际增速将保持在个位数中段。我们的贸易模型显示，尽管中国
资本开支放缓，全球资本开支增长和新兴经济体货币总体走强有望带动
外需强劲。此外，亚洲科技产品出口构成显示，资本开支向高科技和无
形支出倾斜的新趋势愈发突出，应会有利于亚洲的科技产品出口型经济
体。倘若资本开支增速像前几轮周期经常出现的那样高于预期，明年亚
洲出口型经济体增速有望加快（但这并非我们的基本假设）

福利支出和工资增长而好于去年。各经济体的特殊因素可能会导致资本
开支情况走势不一，其中马来西亚、新加坡和泰国的资本开支增速将放
缓但依然强劲，韩国资本开支增速将放缓，台湾将走弱。虽然经常项目
顺差应会随着内需走强而有所下降，但顺差幅度可能依然庞大（包括马
来西亚，若油价持续高企则该国将会收益）

幅上升，油价上涨和大多数亚洲出口型经济体的工资上涨和增税将令这
一情形加剧。我们预计各经济体央行将在经济增长稳健、通胀上行和美
国利率持续上升之际开始加息，首先是韩国将很快采取行动，随后马来
西亚和台湾在2018年、泰国在2019年。倘若决策层对于金融状况失衡
的担忧加剧，则利率可能会上升至高于预期的水平。在这样的宏观背景
下以及在大选等特殊因素影响下，亚洲出口型经济体的货币应会总体走
强

亚洲出口型经济体的对外贸易净差额走强，资本流入相对少于新兴经济
体，而且欧元区和日本的货币状况仍十分宽松。贸易保护主义仍是一项
潜在的结构性不利因素，但目前看似一项较低风险，而北朝鲜相关的地
缘政治风险也在逐渐减弱。我们认为亚洲出口型经济体面临的一项较大
风险是通胀上升和 中国政策平衡过程中拿捏失当

Goohoon Kwon, CFA +852-2978-0048 |
goohoon.kwon@gs
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
Irene Choi
+82(2)3788-1722 | irene.choi@gs
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司
Nupur Gupta
+65-6654-5538 | nupur.x.gupta@gs
高盛（新加坡）私人公司
李真男
+852-2978-6128 | zhennan.li@gs
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
Andrew Tilton
+852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅
www.gs/research/hedge.html

高盛集团全球投资研究
Asia exporters had solid and stronger-than-expected growth in 2017 due to improving
activity of major trading partners. Domestic demand was also robust in most
economies, supported by government spending and job creation. Our aggregate CAI for
shows 5.4% growth in October on a 3-month moving average basis up from 4.4% in
July and real GDP growth of 3.0% for Q2 (USD GDP weighted) (Exhibit 1). Core ination
remained benign at below 2%, with no policy rate hike this year, as expected.
Strong exports outlook on a global capex upturn
The outlook for Asia exporters should remain positive in 2018 given the ongoing
expansion of the world economy.1The GS macro research team expects global
economic growth to accelerate to 4.0% next year, notably higher than consensus, from
an estimated 3.7% this year (see our “As Good As It Gets”,
Global Economics Analyst
,
November 15, 2017).All three major DM economies, the United States, the Euro Area
and Japan look set to continue to grow above potential rates. In particular, US growth is
likely to accelerate to 2.5% in 2018 from 2.2% this year, on favorable nancial
conditions, tax cuts and post-hurricane reconstruction. EM growth will likely accelerate
on recovery in India, Brazil and Russia, while we expect the Chinese economy to slow
again, to 6.5%, after a modest rebound to 6.8% this year from 6.7% in 2016.
1Exports of these ve economies exceed 40% of their respective GDPs, higher than other economies in the
region including China, Japan, India, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Exhibit 1: Activity of Asia exporters has recently rebounded along with global cyclical strength1357913579
201220132014201520162017
CAI (EMAsia)
CAI (DM)
CAI (Asia exporters)
Real GDP (Asia exporters)
Percent change, annualized Percent change, annualized
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
26 November 20172
Goldman SachsAsia Economics Analyst
For our ve export economies, we expect exports to remain strong in 2018, growing in
mid-single digits in real terms though with modest deceleration. Demand from DM will
likely be robust, especially US demand, although uncertainties seem to persist on the
impact of trade protectionism (see “Implications of possible US trade protectionism on
production in Asia”,
Asia Economics Analyst
, Jan 20, 2017).Demand from EM will also
likely remain strong on positive spillover from DM growth and broad EM currency
strength, despite slowing Chinese capex. Our projections show a robust export outlook
for EM Asia next year, with growth outperforming other regions and slightly more
optimistic than those of multilateral institutions and our regional trade model based on
activity of trade partners (GDP and capex) (Exhibit 2).
The return of a global capex up-cycle
Asian exporters should benet from a global capex upturn. The global capex cycle has
been improving, especially in the United States. Our macro team forecasts entail an
acceleration in global capex from 3.1% in 2017 to 4.6% in 2018 (PPP-weighted), in part
boosted by sold capex growthin the United States exceeding the late-cycle norm of
3-4%, and despite a capex slowdown in China from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.6% in 2018
(Exhibit 3). Given that capex tends to overshoot expectations during inection periods
both on the upside and the downside, capex growth could surprise on the upside if the
global economy remains on a solid expansion path as currently reected in consensus
expectations (see GS Capex Tracker: Light at the End of the Capex Tunnel, October 30,
2017).Capex tends to boost trade more than consumption does, given its relatively high
imports contents (see “Three Chinese structural headwinds to Taiwanese exports,”
Asia
Economics Analyst
, Dec 14, 2015), exhibiting high correlation with trade of goods.
Imports contents in China’s investment is as high as 29%, compared with 18% for
consumption. In DM countries such as Japan, the United States and Europe, imports
Exhibit 2: Our exports projections point to a robust outlook for Asian exporters next year
(Real export growth; percent change, year-on-year)
2011201220132014201520162017E2018F
G7
5.02.22.24.51.90.53.52.9
EM Asia
9.75.87.04.5-0.41.76.76.5
Asia Exporters
10.33.03.63.00.31.95.35.1
Korea
15.15.14.32.0-0.12.14.05.5
Malaysia
4.2-1.70.25.10.21.18.53.7
Singapore
4.30.33.55.8-0.21.94.33.9
Taiwan
9.54.92.60.10.72.17.65.7
Thailand
6.51.55.74.02.61.64.94.7
Latin America
6.41.61.10.24.62.03.14.0
Memorandum item:
Global exports growth
OECD*
7.43.13.63.72.72.44.63.8
IMF*
6.92.83.83.73.12.34.13.9
EM Asia exports growth
OECD (Dynamic Asia)
5.32.95.53.42.02.24.54.2
IMF (EM Asia)
11.84.37.14.6-0.92.55.64.2
GS Asia trade model**
9.75.87.04.5-0.41.77.16.8
of which: exporters
10.33.03.63.00.31.95.44.6
*Weighted by USD values of trade
**Average of 8 ARMA regression estimates, based on expected growth rates of trader partners'
real GDP, USD GDP, and real capex (weighted by value-added in trade)
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, IMF, OECD
26 November 20173
Goldman SachsAsia Economics Analyst
contents are generally lower but the gap is still present (share is 15-16% for investment
and 9-10% for consumption).A sequential moderation of Asian export momentum in
recent months as observed in our Asia trade trackerhas coincided with a weakening of
capex momentum in the United States, Japan and several Euro Area countries.
That said, the capex upturn is unlikely to generate a large upswing in regional trade next
year. Capex in China is nearly US$5 trillion at current exchange rates and contributes
some half of globa