摘要
自改革开放以来，广东省经济增速一直维持在全国前列，而高速的经济
增长在推进城市建设、提高居民生活水平的同时也带来了大量的能源消耗和
二氧化碳排放。随着人均收入的增多和居民生活消费结构的变化，居民生活
能源消费产生的二氧化碳排放量急剧增多，在二氧化碳排放总量中占有越来
越大的比重。近年来，广东省作为低碳试点省份，采取了众多措施开展节能
减排工作，取得了一定成就，但也存在一些问题，其一为经济增长对能源消
耗的依赖使得许多企业和地方政府不愿以牺牲发展来采取低碳措施，其二为
现有政策和措施的主体大多为企业和政府，忽视了对居民生活消费二氧化碳
排放的控制。在此背景下，对广东省居民生活消费二氧化碳排放水平进行测
算及现状分析，并进一步研究相关因素的影响程度，将会为广东省碳排放措
施的制定和实施提供依据，实践意义显著。
本文从居民消费角度出发，对广东省2000-2014年居民生活消费直接、
间接二氧化碳排放量进行了测算，并结合社会经济情况从多个角度对测算结
果进行了分析。运用环境-库兹涅茨模型和脱钩模型探究了广东省居民生活消
费二氧化碳排放水平分别与经济发展水平、居民收入水平之间的依存关系。
运用 LMDI 方法和 SDA 方法分别对广东省居民生活消费直接、间接二氧化碳
排放量进行了因素分解分析。
研究结果发现，广东省居民生活消费二氧化碳排放量整体呈现出先波动
上升再平稳下降的趋势，其中，间接二氧化碳排放占比极为明显，城镇居民
的生活消费二氧化碳排放水平高于农村居民。广东省居民生活消费二氧化碳
排放与居民可支配收入之间呈现出倒“U”型关系，且在大多数年间实现了
经济与居民生活消费二氧化碳排放的脱钩发展。居民消费水平的提高是广东
省居民生活消费直接、间接二氧化碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素，而能源结
构的优化、二氧化碳排放强度的降低均能有效抑制居民生活消费二氧化碳排
放量的增加。
关键词：居民生活消费二氧化碳排放；库兹涅茨曲线；脱钩弹性；因素分解哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
The economic growth rate has been maintained at the forefront of China
since the reform and opening up. The rapid economic development can improve
the living standards of residents, however, it can also bring more carbon dioxide
emissions. With the increase of per capita income, household carbon dioxide
emissions are increasing so sharply that household carbon dioxide emissions’
proportion becomes bigger and bigger. In recent years, Guangdong Province has
taken lots of measures to carry out emission reduction work and has made some
achievements. However, there are still some problems. One is that the ecnomic
growth depends on energy consumption so that many enterprises and local
governments don’t want to take low-carbon measures at the expense of
development. Another is that the main body of the existing policies and measures
is government and enterprises, ignoring the control of household carbon dioxide
emissions. In this context, the measurement and analysis of household carbon
dioxide emissions in Guangdong Province is necessary.
This paper will calculate the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions
generated from residents’ living in Guangdong from 2000 to 2014, and then
analyze the calculation results from several aspects. Then, exporing the
relationship between the level of carbon dioxide emissions and that of economic
development in Guangdong with EKC model and decoupling model. Finally,
using the LMDI method and SDA method to analyze the factors that influence the
direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions in Guangdong.
The result of the research showed that the household carbon dioxide
emissions in Guangdong presents a inverted “U” trend. Among which indirect
household carbon dioxide emissions occupied a large proportion, and urban
residents are emission subjuects. There is a EKC between household carbon
dioxide and disposable income in Guangdong, what’s more, the decoupling of
economic development and carbon dioxide emissions has been achieved in most
years. The improvement of cosumption level is the main driving factos of both
direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions. But the optimization of
energy structure and the reduction of carbon dioxide emission intensity can
effectively curb the increase of household carbon dioxide emissions.
Keywords: household carbon dioxide emissions, EKC, decoupling elasticity,
factors decoupling哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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目录
摘要...............................................................................................................................I
ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................II
第1章绪论...............................................................................................................1
1.1研究背景与问题提出.........................................................................................1
1.2国内外研究现状.................................................................................................2
1.2.1经济增长与碳排放关系研究.....................................................................2
1.2.2碳排放影响因素研究..................................................................................3
1.2.3居民生活消费碳排放相关研究................................................................5
1.2.4研究现状述评..............................................................................................7
1.3研究目的和意义.................................................................................................8
1.3.1研究目的.......................................................................................................8
1.3.2研究意义.......................................................................................................8
1.4研究内容与研究方法.........................................................................................9
1.4.1研究内容.......................................................................................................9
1.4.2研究方法.......................................................................................................9
1.4.3创新点.........................................................................................................10
第2章相关理论及模型构建...................................................................................11
2.1相关概念界定....................................................................................................11
2.1.1碳排放量的定义........................................................................................11
2.1.2居民生活消费二氧化碳排放定义..........................................................11
2.2相关理论基础....................................................................................................12
2.2.1低碳经济理论............................................................................................12
2.2.2环境库兹涅茨曲线理论...........................................................................13
2.2.3脱钩理论.....................................................................................................14
2.3测算方法与模型构建.......................................................................................14
2.3.1二氧化碳排放量测算方法.......................................................................14
2.3.2二氧化碳排放因素分解方法...................................................................16
2.3.3二氧化碳排放与经济发展关系模型......................................................19
2.3.4二氧化碳排放因素分解模型...................................................................22
2.4本章小结............................................................................................................26
第3章二氧化碳排放现状分析...............................................................................27哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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3.1二氧化碳排放量测算与分析....................................................................