大量事实证明,国外资本流动有利于营造竞争激烈的商业环境,加大国家支出,从
而提升政府的公信力。另一方面,债息在一定程度上给国民经济带来负担。国家必
须用其GDP的很大比例来偿还债务伏款利息。因此,笔者认为,毛里塔尼亚政府
应该提高本国的资源利用率,促进经济结构转型,削减外债的总量,从根本上减少
利息伏款
关键词:国内生产总值,外债,债息,投资,向量误差修正模型,毛里塔尼亚
II fiBri颂士学位论文 MASTER&39;S THESIS
Abstract
The study attempts to investigate the impact of external debt flows on economic
growth in Mauritania over a period of 34 years starting from 1980 to 2014 by using
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings reveal that there is positive impact
of external debt on economic growth in the long-run. However, the results indicate a
negative relation between services of debt and economic growth both in short and long
term. This could be explained by the fact that foreign capital flow is used to enhance the
government ability to create a competitive business environment by expanding the
national spending. On the other hand, the services of debt constitute a burden on national
economy. The country has to spend a significance proportion of its GDP to pay off these
services. Therefore, Mauritanian government should seek to improve its national
resource and capability to finance its economy transformation and cut down the amount
of external debt and ultimately reduce debt services.
Key words: Gross domestic product, External debt, Service debt,
investment .VECM, Mauritania.
in 硕士学位论文
MASTER
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Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I
摘要 II
Abstract Ill
1 INTRODUCTION1.1 Introduction1.2 Origin of Debt Crisis in LDC s:1.3 Why Countries Borrow1.4 Origin of Mauritanian^ External Debt1.5 Mauritania External Debt Relief.1.6 HIPC debt in Sub-Saharan Africa2 Literature Review2.1 Review of Conceptual and Definition Issues2.2 Review of Theoretical Issues2.2.1 The Dual-gap theory2.2.2 External debt and Economic growth2.2.3 The Dependency Theory2.3 Theoretical literature2.4 Empirical Literature3 The methodology of this research3.1 specification of the model3.2 Techniques of Estimation3.2.1 Unit Root Test3.2.2 Co-integration test3.2.3 Vector Error Correction Model3.2.4 Granger Causality test3.2.5 Impulse Response Analysis3.3 The hypotheses to be tested in the course of this study include
21
4 Data analysis & interpretation
23
4.1 introduction
23
4.2 Data Source and Description of variables
23
4.3 Descriptive analysis
24
4.4 Vector Error Correction Estimates test
25 丨/^^1硕士学位论文 MASTER&39;S THESIS
4.4. llog selection:
25
4.4.2-Test of co-integration
25
4.4.3 G ranger Causality test
27
4.4.4 VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM) Test result
27
4.5 Impulse Response result analysis
29
5 Conclusion and recommendation
31
Reference 32
Appendix 35
Appendix A: vector error correction model test result
35
Appendix B: Wald Test
36
Appendix C: Co integration test result
36 硕士学位论文
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
1950’s and 1960’s are most often described as the “golden years” for developing
countries in economic development literature because of the rate of economic growth
which was not just high but also internally generated. In the above years these LDC
increased their investment reliance on external resources however most of the growth in
the 1970s was “debt led” and this led to persistent current account deficits with massive
borrowings from the international money and capital market (ICM) to bridge payment
gaps. External debt has increased steadily over the years in developing countries and as
such an analysis of the role external debt plays in economic growth and development is
paramount. Aside from being an ardent booster of growth external debt has also been
known to cause a number of problems for developing countries. The increases in external
debt over the years in developing countries has brought the issue of external debt out of
hiding and has become a matter of concern both to the international and local community.
The need to constantly borrow as a means of financing has brought about an increasing
literature among various economists.
Mauritania, like most other less developed countries (LDC) has been classified by
the World Bank among the severely indebted low income countries since 1992. The
nation’s inability to meet all of its debt service payment constitutes one of the serious
obstacles to the inflow of external resources into the economy. The accumulation of debt
service arrears worsened by high interest payments has catapulted the external debt stock
to extremely high levels and all efforts to substantially reduce the debt has been
unsuccessful. This chapter therefore carries out an extensive literature review on the
subject matter of external debt and economic growth by looking at conceptual and
definitions issues, theoretical issues, empirical and methodological issues and summary.
1.2 Origin of Debt Crisis in LDC s:
Prior to 1979 most countries, particularly the five major LDC s (Brazil, Mexico,
Venezuela, Spain, Argentina), which together owed about half of total external debt in
1979 encountered no serious problems in meeting debt service requ
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