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具体业务的增长前景黯淡
机车业务（预计2016-18年收入年均复合增长6%）将在2017年短暂的反弹
过后恢复黯淡状态，原因在于利用率疲软以及季节性因素放缓后货运复苏将
逐步消退
动车组业务（预计2016-18年收入年均复合下降12%）将走弱，原因在于新
线路完工大幅下降、后备订单枯竭以及产品均价承压，这些影响可能超出了
线路密度增加因素以及售后业务收入的积极作用。我们对2017-18年仍持谨
慎看法，并预计直至2025年长期增长前景平平
城轨地铁业务（预计2016-18年收入年均复合增长13%）2017年预计将增
长17%，但2018年将放缓至10%，原因在于新线路完工触顶以及新完工里
程中来自城轨地铁车辆密度较低的三四线城市的比例将上升
盈利/估值存在大幅回调空间
考虑到产品前景走弱，我们将中国中车/时代电气的2016-18年每股盈利预测下调
了4%-14%，我们调整后的2016-18年每股盈利年均复合增速为1%/3%，低于彭
博市场预测的11%/12%。此外，我们将基于EV/GCI-CROCI/WACC的12个月
目标价格下调了11%-15%。在2011年下半年和2014年上半年市场大幅下调对
中国中车/时代电气的增长预测时，其12个月预期市盈率向下重估至10倍左右，
而目前中国中车A股/H股的预期市盈率为25倍/17倍，时代电气为17倍。主要
推动因素包括即将公布的2016年业绩、招标时间推迟/规模不及预期以及铁路货
运量放缓
我们对铁路装备投资的审慎看法面临的主要风险
1) 地方铁路局不论其盈利能力/资金状况如何继续进行机车采购；2) 铁路货运量持
续复苏
* 全文翻译将随后提供
中国铁路装备股研究范围概要
资料来源：Datastream、高盛全球投资研究
我们预计机车需求将保持在约500辆，而过去二十年平均年
需求约为1000辆
注：图中阴影部分/虚线为高盛预测
资料来源：国家统计局、高盛全球投资研究
杜茜 执业证书编号: S1420511100001 +86(10)6627-3147 jacqueline.du@ghsl 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企
业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当
考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视
本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要
信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系
北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究
TickerCompanyRating OldRatingNew12-m TP Old12-m TP NewPotential upside/downside
601766.SSCRRC ANeutralSellRmb 8.55Rmb 7.6
-24%
1766.HKCRRC HNeutralSellHK$ 7.15HK$ 6.1
-18%
3898.HKZhuzhou CRRCNeutralSellHK$ 40.5HK$ 36.1
-17%
3969.HKCRSCBuyBuyHK$ 6.5HK$ 6.9
25%
0.0%10.0%
20.0%30.0%
40.0%50.0%
60.0%70.0%
80.0%90.0%50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Unit loco annual turnover (mn ton-km)
Unit loco annual turnover capacity (mn ton-km)
Utilization (RHS)
0200
400600
8001,000
1,2001,400
1,6001,800500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Normal rail passenger turnover (mn person-km) (LHS)Freight turnover (mn ton-km) (LHS)
China locomotive demand (unit) (RHS)
2017年2月6日中国：机械
全球投资研究 2
Table of Contents
Much expected inflection point unlikely in 2017/18; downgrade CRRC A/H and Zhuzhou to Sell 3
Structural Headwind #1: Reform to introduce more equipment CAPEX discipline in the long-term 6
Structural Headwind #2: Railway FAI shifting from equipment to construction in 2017-18E 8
Locomotive: Under-utilization/reform pressuring demand 9
MU: Headwinds into 2017E/18E; long-term outlook still healthy 17
Subway: Slower growth as new line addition peaks and lower-tier cities contribute less train density 24
Still ample room for earnings/valuation correction; revising estimates and 12-m TPs 26
Key risk to our cautious view on China railway equipment 29
Companies: 30
CRRC A/H (601766.SS/1766.HK): Down to Sell on headwinds faced 31
Zhuzhou (3898.HK): Muted growth vs. expectations; down to Sell 33
CRSC (3969.HK): Earnings resilience to drive outperformance; Buy 35
Appendices: 37
Appendix 1: Key railway equipment suppliers 38
Appendix 2: Controlling shareholder structure 39
Disclosure Appendix 40
Pricing in this report is as of February 2, 2017, unless stated otherwise.
Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Tian Lu, CFA, Christina He, CFA,and Frank Shi of Goldman Sachs in the
preparation of this product.
2017年2月6日中国：机械
全球投资研究 3
Much expected inflection point unlikely in 2017/18; downgrade
CRRC A/H and Zhuzhou to Sell
Our China railway equipment coverage saw a volatile 2016, characterized by sharp corrections
due to disappointments on tendering/earnings and then repeated rebounds as the market put
hope on a new order recovery and earnings inflection.
While market expectations of an earnings inflection appear stronger than in 2016, as evidenced
by the recent rally (Zhuzhou +13% YTD and CRRC A/H +9%/+2%, vs. HSCEI +4% and CSI300
+2% YTD), we see structural headwinds keeping railway equipment demand growth
muted. In particular, we expect: 1) reform to introduce more equipment CAPEX discipline in
the long-term and 2) peak new line addition/growing new line starts to drive a shift in
railway investment from equipment into construction in 2017E-18E.
On the outlook for individual products specifically, we update our views as follows:
Locomotive (+6% 2016-18E revenue CAGR): Despite the recently announced tendering for
586 locomotive units by China Railway Corporation (CRC), which we attribute to a shortfall in
2016 tendering of c.300 units, we continue to expect locomotive demand to remain
depressed beyond 2018E as a result of weak utilization, slowing seasonal factors driving the
recent freight recovery, and the current bottom-up decision making process discouraging
equipment purchase. On 4% 2016-20E freight volume CAGR, we see China’s locomotive
demand falling to c.500 units per annum, vs. the average of c.1,000 units p.a. in the past two
decades. While our 2016-18E locomotive revenue CAGR of +6% is a slight increase from our
earlier estimate of +3% (incorporating recent tendering) and compares favorably to the -25%
CAGR seen over 2013-16E, consensus appears to be pricing in a much greater recovery in
2017-18.
Multiple Units (MU) (-12% 2016-18E revenue CAGR): 2017E/18E headwinds in the form of
a decline in new line completion, a depleted backlog, and an ASP fall on train mix change,
are likely to prevent revenue recovery, in our view. As such, our updated 2016-18E MU
revenue CAGR of -12% compares to our previous estimate of +2% and also +25% CAGR
seen over 2013-16E. While we remain cautious on the revenue outlook over 2017E-18E,
even taking into account the currently widely discussed freight MU (where passenger
transport MU are being used for freight transport), we still expect modest growth through
2025E with rising High-Speed Rail (HSR) ridership.
Subway (+13% 2016-18E revenue CAGR): While we agree with the market consensus on
strong 2017 revenue growth for subway (GSe 17%), we expect it to decelerate in 2018 as
new line addition slows and subway investment comes increasingly from lower-tier cities
where train density is much lower. Our subway revenue CAGR of +13% expected over 2016-
18E is unchanged and compares to +25% CAGR seen over 13-16E.
Downgrade CRRC A/H and Zhuzhou to Sell (from Neutral)
After i
