次贷危机作为世界经济发展史上的一次标志性事件，不仅体现出当今各国空前紧密的
经济联系，同时也衍生出许多前所未有的特异经济现象。在此背景下，我国的流动性过剩
现象呈现出一些新特征。从 2009 年到 2012 年，我国流动性虽然一直处于过剩期，但是过
剩程度却并不相同，因此，文章以时间为分界线、以测量数据为依据，将 2009 年到 2012
年四年间的流动性过剩情况划分为流动性加速过剩期和流动性温和过剩期。鉴于流动性过
剩问题的重要性、不同程度的流动性过剩的危害性，对我国此四年间的流动性过剩情况进
行概念划分、根源探究、政策分析就显得非常重要

文章首先通过 EM指标、M/GDP 指标等对 2009 年-2012 年间我国流动性的情况进行测
算，结果表明：此四年间，我国流动性总体上呈现过剩局面，但是过剩程度却并不相同

因此，文章将 2009 年-2010 年定义为流动性加速过剩期；将 2011 年-2012 年定义为温和
过剩期。在此基础上，分别从国际、国内两个角度分别对每一时期做针对性原因分析。其
中，国内方面主要从外贸业、银行业、房地产业三大行业进行分析。在流动性加速过剩期，
房地产业全面攀升对加速流动性的作用重大，因此，以房地产业为例进行博弈模型分析，
进一步探究房地产攀升背后房价飙升的利益纠葛。同样，在流动性温和过剩期，以银行业
为例，通过构建模型分析互保链危机对我国信贷投放的影响作用

在阐述了后危机时代我国流动性过剩呈现出的新表征，分析了这些新表征出现的根源
后，研究此时期我国政府相应的金融调控政策，则能够提高对这一问题的研究完整性，同
时提升对这一问题的研究深度。因此，本文从存款准备金政策、利率政策、汇率政策以及
房地产金融等角度分别研究各种政策对于缓解流动性过剩的效果如何。最后，根据各种政
策的效果大小，为我国将来调控流动性过剩局面提供政策建议

关键词：流动性过剩，房地产市场，五方混合博弈，互保链危机，金融调控ABSTRACT
Subprime mortgage crisis as a landmark event in the history of the world economy, not
only reflect the ever closer economic ties in each country at current, but also spawned many
unprecedented and specific economic phenomenon. From 2009 to 2012, although our country
has been in excess liquidity period , but they are not the same degree of excess , therefore , the
article regard the time for line, regard the measured data as the basis, we classified the four
years from 2009 to 2012 as accelerated excess liquidity phase and mild excess liquidity
period.Given the importance of the problem of excess liquidity, harmfulness of excess liquidity
in different periods, setting the concept of the situation, searching the origins , analying the
policy is very important .
This paper measures the liquidity situation in our country during 2009-2012 through EM2
index and M2 / GDP index, the results showed that the four years, there is excess liquidity
situation in our country, but the degree of excess is not the same. Therefore, this paper defined
2009-2010 as quickly excess liquidity; The 2011-2012 defined as moderate surplus. On this
basis, respectively, from the perspective of both international and domestic do specific analysis
of the causes of each period. Among them, the domestic aspect mainly from the foreign trade
industry, banking, real estate industry to analyze. In excess liquidity acceleration period, the
real estate industry rising to accelerate liquidity are important, therefore, to analyze game model
in the real estate industry to explore the prices interest behind soaring real estate. Similarly, in
moderate liquidity surplus, setting banking as an example, by building a model analysis of
mutual insurance chain crisis's impact on China's credit.
Elaborating on a new characterization of the excess liquidity in post- crisis era, analying
these new roots of characterization, studying corresponding financial control policy of
government, it will improve the integrity of the research on this issue , while, enhance the depth
of research. Therefore , this article from the deposit reserve policy , interest rate policy,
exchange rate policy as well as real estate and financial angles to study various policies for the
mitigation of the effects of excess liquidity. Finally, according to the size of the effect of
policies, provide policy recommendations for the future regulation.
KEY WORDS：Excess liquidity, real estate market, five parties hybrid game, mutual
chain crisis, financial regulation