本文釆用了理论与实证相结合的方法,从理论上分析了汇率对湖
南省经济影响的途径以及影响效果,并基于三部门国民收入模型推导
出汇率对经济影响的条件。然后采用回归分析、平稳性检验、协整检
验、格兰杰因果检验等方法实证检验了价格水平传导、进出口贸易以
及投资三条汇率传导路径的效果,发现汇率与湖南省价格水平、进口、
出口以及固定资产投资均存在长期均衡关系,对价格水平和投资影响
为正,对进口和出口影响为负。随后本文分析了人民币汇率变动对湖
南省经济总量的影响,发现湖南省经济总量与人民币实际有效汇率之
间存在长期均衡关系,人民币的升值对湖南省经济增长有紧缩效应
最后提出了湖南省应加大对出口型企业的支持力度,加快外贸产品结
构调整,重视消费对经济的拉动作用等政策建议
图5幅,表13个,参考文献87篇
关键词:汇率;湖南;经济增长
分类号:F832.5
The empirical analysis of influence on Economic
Growth of Hunan province from RMB real effective
exchange rate
ABSTRACT : As the link between the foreign trade to inside the
exchange rate is going to have a deeper influence on economic growth of
Hunan Province because it is becoming more opening .Since the RMB
exchange rate formation started reform, exchange rate become more
flexible as well its risk. As the central province of Hunan, has obvious
advantages in resources and talented person, however frequently it has
disadvantage to adapt to the reform of the RMB exchange rate and other
financial policies .This paper study the influence on economic growth in
Hunan Province by RMB exchange rate and proposed measures on
exchange rate risk management as well the readjustment of economic
structure and upgrading of an industrial structure of Hunan Province.
This paper adopts the method of combination of theory and
empirical. First we analysis how the exchange rate affect the Hunan
province economic and then we derive the conditions of exchange rate
affect on economic based on the Three-Department income model. We
test these conditions by using OLS analysis, ADF test, the Grainger
causality test, cointegration test and find that there is a long-term
relationship between the price conduction、import and export trade and
investment with exchange rate .The influence to price level and
investment is positive and the import and export is negative. After that a
study on influence on Hunan Province by RMB exchange rate is be made
and the result show that there is a long-term negative relationship
between RMB real effective exchange rate with the economic growth of
Hunan province. In the end we suggest that Hunan Province should
increase the support to export enterprise and speed up the upgrading of
industrial structure , pay more attention to the role of consumption in
driving the economy.
v
==>>