and Flow of Peasant-workers

—Based on Fengdu County,Chongqing City

A Thesis Submitted to Chongqing University

in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the

Doctor’s Degree of Management

By

Zhang Hongming

Supervised by Prof. Zhang Zongyi

Speciaty: Business Administration

College of Economics and Business Administration of

Chongqing University, Chongqing, China

June, 2012

I

摘 要

改革开放 30 年来,随着有中国特色的市场经济体制的逐步确立,市场机制在

不同地区经济增长以及劳动力工资决定中发挥了更大的作用,劳动力市场地区分

割越来越显著。由于体制和制度等原因,中国劳动力市场逐渐形成了一个身份特

殊、数量庞大、流动性强的农民工群体。农民工群体的存在使中国劳动力市场有

着特殊性,研究仍处在改革进程中的中国劳动力市场和农民工群体的发展变化有

着重要的理论价值和现实意义。

2008 年,金融危机引发了全国范围内的农民工返乡潮,引起了全社会的广泛

关注,并成为当前中国经济研究的重点之一。金融危机造成总量约 2000 万的农民

工失业返乡,在经济形势转暖之后,其中约 1600 万继续外出务工,约 400 万农民

工则就地就业或创业成为返乡农民工。2008 年金融危机,使得我们第一次能够具

备相应的现实基础和获得充足的微观数据研究特定经济事件引发的特定劳动力在

特定时间大规模跨劳动力市场流动,也为我们提供了一个在同一劳动力市场研究

返乡农民工和本土农民工的机会。

本研究从劳动力市场分割理论出发,以 2008 年美国金融危机中国农民工返乡

为背景,使用本人于 2009 年 7 月发起并组织的重庆市丰都县返乡农民工和本土农

民工抽样调查大样本数据,从市场的角度研究了不同地区劳动力市场的农民工收

入差距及收入决定机制,从农民工自身的角度探讨了影响农民工流动的决策因素。

本研究一方面为进一步验证中国经济发展地区不平衡和由此带来的劳动力市场地

区分割及其特性提供思路,另一方面也可以为进一步从劳动力市场分割理论研究

农民工流动提供借鉴。

本研究的主要创新性工作包括:

①从劳动力市场分割理论和劳动力流动理论出发,从劳动力市场和劳动力市

场供给方两个相对应的角度及其比较来研究农民工流动。对于当今基本是以劳动

力市场为出发点来进行农民工流动的理论研究及实证研究,从劳动力市场供给方

农民工自身的角度来研究农民工流动、流动决策和相关影响因素,为进一步研究

农民工流动和农民工流动决策提供了新的思路和途径。从这两个角度的比较研究

发现,劳动力市场配置机制和劳动力流动决策不一致,原因在于劳动力市场和劳

动力决策的影响因素不同。同时,本研究将农民工群体分为返乡农民工和本土农

民工两个子群体,通过对金融危机造成的返乡农民工和本土农民工在不同劳动力

市场与相同劳动力市场的收入差距和影响因素的比较来研究我国劳动力市场地区

分割和农民工流动,为研究劳动力市场分割和进一步研究农民工群体提供了新的

II

借鉴。

②将劳动力市场分割理论和新古典人力资本理论相结合,研究了 2008 年金融

危机造成的农民工失业和流动,研究发现劳动力市场分割理论关于流动障碍阻碍

了劳动力在各子市场间的自由流动和劳动力市场是非出清的核心假说对我国特有

的农民工劳动力群体不适用。农民工可以在不同地区的劳动力子市场之间流动,

并且经济发达地区劳动力市场可以向经济欠发达地区劳动力市场出清,出清的人

群是没有在经济发达地区劳动力市场积累人力资本的农民工群体。同时,运用 Theil

指数分解法,这个新的方法来验证了劳动力市场分割理论核心假说在我国的适用

性,本研究的 Theil 指数分解结果验证了我国劳动力市场地区分割和不同子市场中

的工资决定和劳动力配置机制各不相同,新古典人力资本理论在较低端子市场中

的适用性不强。研究发现我国不同地区的劳动力市场存在着不同的工资决定和劳

动力配置机制,以受教育程度为代表的人力资本积累是经济发达地区劳动力市场

工资决定和劳动力配置机制的决定因素,以性别差异而导致的体力差异所代表的

人力资本是经济欠发达地区劳动力市场工资决定和劳动力配置机制的决定因素。

③结合劳动力市场分割理论和劳动力流动理论,用 Logit 模型从劳动力市场的

供给方农民工自身的角度来研究农民工流动决策和农民工流动决策影响因素,研

究发现劳动力市场机制不能完全决定劳动力流动决策和劳动力流动,原因在于劳

动力市场的配置机制和劳动力流动的决策机制存在着不一致。劳动力市场关注的

是劳动力的受教育程度和性别差异所代表的人力资本积累,劳动力市场供给方农

民工流动决策并不关注受教育程度和性别差异因素,农民工所关注的影响因素是

婚姻状况所代表的生活压力、从事行业所代表的收入水平和短期收入与长期收入

的权衡。

关键词:金融危机,劳动力市场分割,劳动力流动,农民工

III

ABSTRACT

With 30 years’ reform and opening up, the market economic system with Chinese

characteristics is gradually established. The market mechanism has been playing a

greater role in the economic growth and wage determination in different regions, and

the labor market segmentation becomes increasingly evident. Due to institutional

reasons, the Chinese labor market has gradually formed a migrant-workers group, which

is of special status, large number and strong mobility. The presence of migrant-workers

group makes Chinese labor market particular. Therefore, the study on development and

changes of Chinese labor market and migrant-workers group, which are still in the

process of reforms, has important theoretical value and practical significance.

The tide of migrant workers’ home-return triggered by financial crisis in 2008 has

aroused a widespread concern in whole society, also becomes one focus of China's

economic studies today. The financial crisis had caused a total of about 20 million

unemployed migrant workers returning home, of which about 16 million continue to go

out finding jobs after the warming of economic situation, while the other 400 million

stay at home getting employed or self-employed and become returned migrant workers.

The financial crisis of 2008, not only provides us a realistic basis and adequate

micro-data to study the specific inter-market labor flow with large-scale triggered by

specific economic events at a specific time for the first time, but also makes it possible

to study returned migrant workers and local migrant workers within the same labor

market.

Based on the background of Chinese migrant workers’ home- return tide in 2008

financial crisis, employing the theory of labor market segmentation, and using the

large-sample data from a survey about returned migrant workers and local migrant

workers, which was initiated and organized by me at Fengdu County, Chongqing

Municipality in July 2009, this study analyzes the income gap between migrant workers

and income pricing mechanism in different parts of labor market from the aspect of

market research, as well as explores the decision-making factors affecting the flow of

migrant workers from the perspective of migrant workers themselves. This study could

provide ideas to verify the regional imbalance in China's economic development and the

resulting labor market segmentation as well as the income determination mechanism.

Besides, it could also provide a reference for the following study on the flow of migrant