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摘 要
中国股市经过 20 多年的发展，不少投资者伴随着这 2000 多家上市公司的发展，
获得了丰厚的投资回报。但也有相当多一部分的中小企业投资者以及散户，他们没有
耐心长久地持有某股票，他们更看重的是眼前利益，他们更愿意去追逐短期升幅大的
股票，盲目买卖股票，不仅没有从股市中分得一杯羹，反而失利连连。事实上，耐心
地持有某支具有价值投资和发展前景的股票，等待它的成长，从中分享其更高利润的
概率，远远高于频繁地操作换股获得的股价差额利润的概率
因此，了解什么是股票的价值投资，应该怎样选择有价值的股票进行投资是股市
中长线投资者普遍应该关注的问题
文中阐述了股票价值投资的含义，国内外股票价值投资的研究现状，进行股票价
值投资的意义所在，还试着给出了投资者进行股票价值投资应该考虑的因素
而 AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)法，也即是层次分析法尝试着解决这个难题
此法是一种能综合考虑多个决策变量，融合定性定量分析于一体的强有力的决策工具
本文在分析总结 AHP 技术的基础上，先将 AHP 技术应用于实业投资的决策，证明了
AHP 法权重确定法的可行性。再将 AHP 法应用于股市价值投资策略的研究。具体地，
我们在遴选出若干评价指标的基础上，利用我们设计并实现的分析软件 StkTool 自动地
从财经网站上抓取相关数据，供用户进行两两对比选择。用户在完成股票的偏好性选
择后，在通过必要的一致性检验后，StkTool 将根据用户的选择推荐一个综合得分最高
的股票。这就是投资者的最佳选择
关键词：价值投资；层次分析法；判断矩阵；一致性检验II
ABSTRACT
After more than 20 years’ development of China's stock market, many investors, with the
development of the listed corporation, won great return of investment. However, quite a lot
small and medium-sized enterprise and individual investors, who have no patience to hold a
certain stock for a long time but focus more on immediate interests and short-term benefit and
do the stock deals blindly and frequently, fail to get the final profit from the stock market. In
fact, the possibility of getting great profits by holding a valuable and promising stock and
waiting for it to grow, is much higher than that of getting profits by frequent stock deals.
Therefore, understanding what the value of stock investment is and how to choose a valuable
stock for investment, is the common issue of longer-term investors.
This paper expounds the meaning of the stock value investment, the research status of
domestic and foreign stock value investment. It also tries to list the factors of stock value
investment, which should be considered by the investors.
The method of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) tries to solve this problem. This method is a
powerful decision-making tool, which can comprehensively consider multiple decision
variables and integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis.
On the basis of analysis and summarization the AHP technology, this paper firstly applies this
technology to industrial investment decision which proves the feasibility of weights of AHP
methods, and then applies the method to the strategy research of stock market value
investment. In details, we will select some evaluation indexes and then use the software
stkTool to automatically catch some the data from financial websites, and provide the data to
users for comparison and selection. After users complete their selection, stkTool will finally
recommend a stock with highest scoring to users after some integration check.
Key Words：Value of the Stock Investment；Method of Analytic Hierarchy Process；
Judgment Matrix; Consistency Check