摘要
近年来,随着我国股票市场连连遭遇熊市,自2008年下半年大面积震荡下跌
开始至今,国内证券市场一片低迷,而这一现象意味着国内大量上市企业的企业
价值严重下降。在诸多种类的股票中银行股向来以运行平稳,涨跌幅度较小而著
称,但许多商业银行的股价在这一轮股市下跌中也未能幸免,那么,从理论上来
讲,这些银行自身的企业真实价值也应与股市走向相同而呈现下跌趋势
但令广大投资者以及上市公司领导人无法理解的是,自2010年始至2012年
之间我国东北地区的各大商业银行不但没有呈现出与股价相符的颓势,反倒是一
片红红火火。仅以沈阳为例,许多股份制商业银行诸如招商银行,民生银行,华
夏银行,浦发银行等纷纷在辽宁省内周边地区如辽阳,抚顺,铁岭,本溪等城市
成立了多家分支机构,这种扩张的幅度与低迷的股市呈现出了两种截然相反的运
行趋势
本文以上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司近5年以来的一些真实经营数据为理
论依据,以现金流贴现模型的评估形式为核心,对于浦发银行的真实企业价值进
行了客观而详尽的评析,并据此探讨浦发银行股价的波动与其真实银行价值涨跌
之间的联系与反差,希望能够为广大的投资者以及金融机构管理人员提供一份具
备一定参考价值的案例以供研究,为我国股份制商业银行的健康发展做出一份贡
献
通常来讲,对于企业价值的评估离不开对于其负债资本成本的计算。但商业
银行的负债资金成本与一般企业的负债资金成本往往是不同的,这是因为股份制
商业银行与绝大多数上市企业在市场经济中扮演的角色有所不同,其对于负债资
产的使用运营方式有所不同,其主要资金来源有所不同,其负债资产的结构构成
也有着本质上的差异。因此本文采用现金流贴现评估这一方法来对上海浦东发展
银行进行企业价值评估以求评估结果的客观性和准确性
关键词:绩效评价;价值评估;现金流貼现
英文摘要
ABSTRACT
In recent years, with China,s stock market again and again encounter a bear market,
since the second half of 2008,a large area of tumbled since the start of the domestic
stock market is in the doldrums, this phenomenon is a serious decline in enterprise value
means that a large number of domestic listed companies. In many kinds of stocks,
banking stocks has always been to run smoothly,Change lesser extent known, but the
price of many commercial banks have not been spared in this round of stock market
decline, then,in theory, these banks the real value of the enterprise and the stock market
to the same downward trend.
However, the majority of investors and listed companies leaders fail to understand is
that, between Northeast China's major commercial banks since the beginning of 2010 to
2012, not only did not show a decline in line with the price, but rather a booming. Only
Shenyang, for example, the number of joint-stock commercial banks such as China
Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank,Huaxia Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank
have surrounding areas in Liaoning province, Liaoyang,Fushun,Tieling, Benxi City
established a number of branches, this expansion the magnitude of the downturn in the
stock market has shown a two diametrically opposite run trend.
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., the real operational data in the past five years
as the theoretical basis, the form of assessment of the discounted cash flow model as the
core objective and detailed Analysis, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's enterprise
value, and, according to explore the link between fluctuations in the share price of the
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and its ups and downs of the real bank value
contrast,want to be able to provide for the majority of investors and financial
institutions management a case to have a certain reference value for research,
joint-stock commercial bank in China the healthy development to make a contribution.
Generally, the assessment can not be separated from the enterprise value of its liabilities
and the cost of capital calculation. Commercial bank's cost of debt capital and general
corporate cost of debt capital is often different, this is different because the role of
joint-stock commercial banks and the vast majority of listed companies in a market
英文摘要
economy, the use of gearing the way they operate different, its main source of funding
is different, of its liabilities and assets structure also has the inherent differences. This
article uses the discounted cash flow valuation this approach to enterprise valuation
objectivity and accuracy in order to evaluate the results of the Shanghai Pudong
Development Bank.
Key Words: Performance evaluation; Assessment of value; Discounted cash flow