摘要
当今,科技创新己经成为评价企业核心竞争力的重要指标之一,为企业的发展提供
着源源不断的动力。国家《“十二五产业技术创新规划》中明确指出,消费品创新是
我国未来一段时间重点推进的四大领域之一
科技创新是现代企业生存和发展的必经之路。伴随着不断的科技创新,企业不仅能
够提升现有产品与服务旳品质,还可以拓展和开发新的领域,为企业带来更多效益。从
社会层面来说,科技创新是社会经济发展的重要动力,持续高效的科技创新能够为经济
增长不断注入新鲜活力,促进我国经济不断向前发展。烟草企业作为国有大型企业,在
自身发展的同时还承担着更加重大的社会责任。因此,如何实现科技创新,不断推进烟
草产品创新是烟草企业持续发展的所要解决的重大问题
科技创新给企业带来机遇的同时,也伴随着诸多风险。这些风险有些源自企业内部,
有些是有企业外部环境引起的。引起风险的因素也各不相同,在不同的情况下呈现出不
同的特征。最重要的是,这些风险的产生会对科技创新项目产生不利影响:有的会阻碍
科技创新项目的进度,使企业错失市场机遇;有的会增加项目开发成本,影响企业利润;
有点甚至会导致项目失败,对企业产生严重的后果
本文结合卷烟企业实际情况,构建了卷烟企业科技创新项目风险分析与评价的模
型。该模型包括了对卷烟企业科技创新项目的风险识别与分类、风险优癣风险分析和
风险评价四大模块。卷烟企业科技创新项目管理者能够通过该模型得出的风险评价结果
采取相应措施,避免风险的发生或者减小风险的影响程度
首先,通过专家调査,归纳得到65项卷烟企业科技创新项目风险因素;再采用专
家打分法,筛选出符合卷烟企业的案例科技创新项目的34项主要风险因素
其次,通过AHP法确定各类风险对案例项目的影响权重以及各风险因素对风险产
生的影响权重
最后,采用模糊综合评价的方法,对得到的各权重结果作进一步处理,从而得出各
类型风险以及各风险因素对科技创新项目的评价结果
这一评价模型与评价方法,在卷烟企业科技创新项目风险分析与评价中具有一定的
应用参考价值,能帮助管理者判断科技创新项目风险因素的影响大小,从而有重点、有
针对性地对科技创新项目风险进行控制与防范,提高科技创新的效率
关键词.卷烟企业,项目风险评价,科技创新,层次分析法,模糊综合评价
Abstract
Nowadays, science and technology innovation has become one of the important indexes
to evaluate enterprise core competitive power, to provide everfount impetus for the
development of enterprises. National Twelfth Five Year Plan of industrial technology
innovation plan clearly pointed out, consumer product innovation is one of the four major
areas of our country in the future for a period of time to focus on.
Technology innovation is the only way which must be passed of modern enterprise
survival and development. Along with the continuous technological innovation, enterprises
can improve the existing quality of product and of service, also can expand and develop new
fields, bring more benefits for enterprises. From the perspective of the society, science and
technology innovation is an important driving force for social and economic development,
scientific and technological innovation and sustainable and efficient economic growth
continue to inject new vigor and vitality, and promote China's economic development.
Tobacco enterprises as large state-owned enterprises not only do their own development but
also take an even greater social responsibility. Therefore, how to realize the innovation of
science and technology, promote tobacco product innovation is the sustainable development
of the tobacco enterprise to solve the major problems.
Science and technology innovation brings opportunity to the enterprise, also
accompanied by a number of risks. Some of these risks from the enterprise, some are caused
by the external environment of enterprises. The risk factors are also each are not identical,
showing different characteristics in different situations. Most importantly, these risks will
have an adverse impact on the technological innovation project: some will hinder technology
innovation project schedule,make enterprise missed market opportunities; some will increase
the project development costs,affect corporate profits; some may even lead to project failure,
have serious consequences for the enterprise.
In this paper,combined with the actual situation of cigarette enterprise, constructs the
risk analysis and evaluation of technology innovation project of cigarette enterprise model.
The model includes the risk identification and classification,the science and technology
innovation project of cigarette enterprise risk preference, risk analysis and risk evaluation of
four big modules. Managers of technology innovation projects of cigarette enterprises use this
model to the risk evaluation of the results of the model to take corresponding measures, to
avoid the risk of the occurrence or reduce the influence degrees of risk.
First of all, through the expert investigation, concluded 65 technology innovation project
of cigarette enterprise risk factors; then by Delphy Fa, selected in line with the 34 major risk
factors of technology innovation project case cigarette enterprises.
Secondly, to determine the influence of weight effect on the case project risks and risk
factors on the risk generated by AHP method.
Finally, using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the results for further
processing of the weights obtained, so that various types of risk and the risk factors of
evaluation results of scientific and technological innovation projects.
The evaluation model and evaluation method, which can be used for reference in the risk
analysis and evaluation of technology innovation project of cigarette enterprises, can help
managers to judge the impact of technology innovation project risk factors in size,which is
focused, targeted for the risk of technological innovation project control and prevention,
improve the efficiency of Technology innovation.
Key words : Cigarette enterprises, Project risk evaluation, Technology innovation,
AHPmethod, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation