摘 要
随着科技的发展,信息化时代的到来,软件在我们的社会经济生活中占据着越来
越重要的地位。软件产业已进入了高速增长期。然而伴随着软件行业的快速增长,软
件系统要求实现的功能越来越多,系统越来越庞大和复杂。与此同时,项目组包含的
成员也越来越多,项目管理的难度越来越大。对软件项目进行有效的过程控制是保证
软件项目成功的关键之一。目前世界上大部分软件公司都在进行过程控制的尝试,中
博公司也不例外,但目前公司的软件项目管理依然具有大量的不定和主观因素,项目
管理能否成功依然不可知,这对公司来说是一个巨大的风险
本文致力于基于CMMI4级标准,结合PMBOK、IS09001和数理统计的理论,
探究了中博公司项目管理方案设计以及实施中的关键问题,并提出解决方案。首先,
简要陈述了软件行业目前所面临的整体环境,在此基础上,提出了中博公司当前面临
的问题与挑战,并进一步指出本文研究的目的和意义。根据国内软件项目管理的现状,
提出文章的应用前景,并对本文的结构迸一步予以明确。随后,文章中对研究涉及到
的理论基椽—进行了描述,包括CMMI理论、PMBOK、数理统计基础知识,以及
对国内外的一些相关研究展幵综述,明确了文章的研究方法与技术路线。之后是文章
的核心内容,主要说明利用中博公司的历史数据,围绕公司目标和项目目标,构建软
件量化项目管理中能够实际使用的预测模型,通过模型能够动态对软件项目的过程进
行度量和控制。当项目实际状态偏离计划时,项目管理者利用本文给出的预测模型,
迅速做出相应的控制决策,调整相关因子,确保项目目标的达成。文章中具体说明了
建立模型采用的方法、技术、最终建立的模型说明和应用说明,并给出应用的范例,
最后,本文根据前文中中博公司软件项目管理中存在的问题及提出的预测模型,分析
了用预测模型进行量化项目管理的预期效果,总结全文后,指出研究中存在的不足并
提出相关展望
关键词:CMMI量化项目管理预测模型
Abstract
With the development of science and technology and the arrival of information age,
software plays a more and more important role in our social and economic life. The
software industry has entered a period of rapid growth. However, with the rapid growth of
the software industry, the software system is required to achieve more and more functions;
the system becomes more and more large and complex. At the same time, the project group
contains more and more members; project management becomes more and more difficult.
Effective process control of software project is one of the keys to guarantee the success of
software projects. At present, majority of software companies in the world are
experimenting with process control, ZhongBo Company is no exception. But ZhongBo's
software project management still has a large number of uncertain and subjective factors
now; the project management success is still unknown.This is a huge risk for the company.
In this paper, based on the CMMI4 standard, combined with PMBOK,IS09001 and
mathematical statistics theory, the key problems in designing and implementing the project
management program is discussed,and the solution is put forward. First of all,based on
the general description of the overall environment of software industry, the current
problems and challenges faced by ZhongBo Company are put forward. And the purpose
and significance of this study is point out. According to the present situation of domestic
software project management, the application prospects are put forward. And the structure
of this paper is to be clarified. Then, the theoretical basis of the study relates to the paper is
described,including the theory of CMMI, PMBOK, the basic knowledge of mathematical
statistics and the summary of related research from domestic and foreign. The research
methods and technical route is to be clarified also. Then is the core content of the paper.
This part mainly explains how to build the prediction models by using the historical data of
ZhongBo company;and these models will focus on the corporate goals and objectives of
the project;and these models can be actually used in the software quantitative project
management. The process of software project can be measured and controlled dynamically
by using these models .When the actual status of the project deviate from the plan, project
managers use prediction models given by this paper and make corresponding control
decisions quickly,and then adjust the relevant factors to achieve the project objectives.
This paper discribies the methods and techniques of how to build the modles, the model
description and the application descripiton in detail.This paper also put forward an
application example. Finally, according to the problems existing in the software project
management of ZhongBo Company and the prediction models mentioned in above, the
analysis about the expected effect of quantitative project management is to be carried out.
The end chapiter sums up the whole of the paper, pointing out the existence oversight and
putting forward prospect.
Key Words: CMMI, quantitative project management, the prediction models