木文旨在针对目前人造板行业的市场发展状况,将预警理论应用到人造板企业
中来,着眼于成本预警管理的研究,运用统计计量方法构建企业成本预警模型,同
时将江苏大亚木业集团实地调研获得的成本数据应用到模型中,运用历史数据确定
预警警度的阀值,验证判断风险发生概率值的准确性,充分发挥预警模型的作用,
企业可以根据预警结果及时发现成木中的各种风险,并釆取有效的措施规避风险降
低损失,真正实现对人造板企业成本事前预警的H标。
关键词:人造板企业;成本预警系统;Probit模型;信号模型
ABSTRACT
China is the biggest production, consumption, import and export country of wood-based panel
in the world. Although wood-based panel industry has achieved rapid development for many years,
there are a lot of drawbacks. For example, most of wood-based panel enterprises are small size
companies, while their products contain little technology. Many enterprises need to enhance their
ability to cope with risk, which is another important problem. Because of the extensive mode of
economic growth for many years, along with the Financial crisis in 2008, Chinese wood-based panel
industry suffered an unprecedented attack. More than 60% enterprises of the major panel-export
base suspended their production. At the same time, cost of wood-based panel enterprises is rising
gradually, which is also a problem that should not be ignored. Chinese wood-based panel enterprises&39;
high cost time really has came. Depressed profitability and difficult business is inescapability for
many companies.
Aiming at present market development of wood-based panel industry, this article aims to
introduce the early-warning theory into the corresponding enterprises, focuses on the research of
forewarning management on all kinds of enterprise cost, and uses statistical and econometric methods
to establish a cost-forewarning model. In addition, this article applies abundant cost data of a
wood-based panel enterprise named DaYa in JiangSu province to build an actual early-warning model,
for specific expression, uses historical cost-data to calculate the critical value of alert degree, then tests
and verifies the accuracy of risk judgment which predicted by the early-warning model. Making the
best of cost forewarning model, wood-based panel enterprises can discover all kinds of cost-risk based
on early warning results, then can take efficient measures to avoid risk and reduce losses. In a word,
the cost early-warning system can make the wood-based panel enterprises&39; target- controlling cost risk
before it actually occurs- come true.
Keywords: Wood-based panels enterprises; the costs early warning system; Probit
model ; Signal model
1绪论
1.1问题提出
1.1.1研究背景
人造板产业作为我国木材利用的支柱产业之一,以其对木材的高效利用和节约
利用,对我国林业可持续发展战略有重要支持作用(陈绪和,2005)。由于我国可采
伐森林资源总量不足且存在结构不合理的情况,加速发展人造板产业对于我国经济
的可持续发展也有重要意义(刘艺卓,2005)。改革开放以来,中国的国民经济呈现
持续、高速、稳定的增长,国内房地产业、建筑装修业、家具产业的市场容量不断
扩大,人民生活水平大幅度提高;国际贸易总额迅速增加,中国外向型经济发展模
式逐步定型,林业产业融入国际市场的速度不断加快。在此背景下,中国人造板产
业发展十分迅速。尤其是进入21世纪以来,中国人造板产值增速超过20%,在人
造板的生产、消费、进出口贸易等方面,连续多年成为世界第一大国(张新庭,2008)。
然而近年来随着企业竞争的日趋激烈,人造板企业的生存面临着极大的挑战。
当前,生产能力达到1万m3的部分人造板企业,面临停产或半停产的困境(依丽杰,
2005);同时,产能过剩导致出口受阻、产业结构不合理等问题也不断显现。人造板
企业在面对内外部的风险和不确定时,由于缺乏正确的理论指导和精准预警模型的
支持,出现了低水平无序竞争的态势,导致资源的严重浪费,企业生存状况堪忧。
根据发达国家制造业的发展规律,对生产成本进行预警监控,进而获得成本优势,
是企业取得竞争胜利的重要途径。
1.1.2研究目的与意义
本文旨在为人造板企业设计一套标准的预警体系,不同企业可以根据自身具体
情况进行指标和模型调整。成本预警管理作为企业预警管理的重要组成部分,具体
来说就是对企业成本的构成进行剖析,选择其巾关键部分设定临界值,选择预警目
标,通过分类和分阶段的目标控制,最终达到对成本总额和结构进行控制、防范成
本风险的一种管理方法(张西军,2012)。通过对成本及相关信息的收集、处理、整
合、反馈,结合预算管理目标,根据实际情况,适时调整生产经营计划,规避各方
面风险,有效利用有限的资金。木文研究的企业成本预警系统,就是在研究借鉴了
国内外关于预警系统的资料后,通过严谨全面的分析企业成本,构建成木要素的指
标体系并建立预警模型,最后运用实地企业调研获得一手数据验证其准确性。
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