本文对我国城投债从发展历史、现阶段特点、信用风险来源因素及表现形式、
风险案例等,从倍用评级的角度对我国城投债信用风险进行研究,采用比较分析
法、理论分析法、模型分析法和实证分析法等研究方法。
随着城投债发行规模的大幅增加,城投公司的整体债务规模急剧攀升,其债
务总量超过了地方政府的财政收入水平,进而将引发城投债的信用风险。我国城
投债发行经历了三次高峰时期:2005年前发行较少,上要是在:t&39;i辖也、大型哲会
城市发行,每年发行数量最多5只,年规模仅儿十亿,2005年央行重启发行短期融
资券,当年发行金额第一次超百亿元;2008年屮央推出四万亿经济刺激汁划,配
奩出现的20万亿元的各将市计划投资总额,远远超过地方政府财政收入,急需大
量资金配置,《关于进一少加强信贷结构调整促进国民经济平稳较快发展的指异意
见》山人行和银监会2009年公布,在此项政策的激励下2009年城投债发行酋超丁-
亿达到3198亿元,年发行数量首超百只达192只;而地方融资平台新增贷款于2012
年受到了严重的限制,因而地方融资平台的融资逐渐由银行借款转入债券市场直
接融资,鉴于“山东海龙”大信用风险事件的圆满解决,这些激励因素促使城
投债发行于2012年跃负8863. 4亿元,发行数景达754只,2012年存债数目为1376只,
债券余额达到了 17,754. 88亿元,巨大的地方债务足以引起对城投债的高度贯视与
风险关注。
前银行贷款收紧、鼓励直接融资的市场环境屮,地方政府将丨丨光更多地
投向了债券市场,随养城投债发行量的爆增,在城投债的产牛、发展过程屮,出
现了+少的如云城投、ft城投债、岳城建债等倍州风险祺件,M然银行、政府、
企业等最终都想办法得以解决并没冇造成真。。。
Abstract
This study made an indepth research into the development of municipal bond in
US and based on the similarities and differences between those in US and City
Investment Bond in China, we propose several plausible suggestions to effectively
control the credit risk.
City Investment Bond of china has developed more quickly in recent year, and has
attracted more and more attention. We first find out the most important factors in
analyze the qualification of a City Investment Bond. And then we create a system for
categorizing different bonds based on several factors: local GDP, asset scale,
debt-to-asset ratio and so on. Finally we use Jingcheng bond to illustrate our method.
City Investment Bond is one major method of direct financing, compared to credit
loans from banks. To raise enough money for urban construction and public wealth, City
Investment Bond is created to partially replace loans to avoid the problems: high
upward floating interest rates;limited quota for individual coperation and company; and
potentially long time for the loans to be approved and finally distributed.
KEY WORDS: City Investment Bonds; Platforms of Investment and Finance of
Local Governments; Credit risk
==>>