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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
WORLD
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
UPDATE
Near-Term Resilience,
Persistent Challenges
2023
JUL
July
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE
2023
Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges
? Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024.
While the forecast for 2023 is modestly higher than predicted in the April 2023 World Economic Outlook
(WEO), it remains weak by historical standards. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation
continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to
6.8 percent in 2023 and 5.2 percent in 2024. Underlying (core) inflation is projected to decline more gradually,
and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.
? The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and, earlier this year, strong action by authorities to contain
turbulence in US and Swiss banking, reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated
adverse risks to the outlook. However, the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside.
Inflation could remain high and even rise。。。以下略