摘要
摘要
城市化进程的加快要求不断的对旧城进行改造，相比于普通房地产项目来
说，旧城改造具有开发周期长、投资大、利益相关者多、建设过程复杂的特点，
旧城改造的风险也就更大，因此对旧城改造的风险管控研究价值更大。
本文以项目管理理论和生命周期风险管理理论为基础，对浙江昆仑置业集
团 T旧城改造项目建设阶段的风险进行识别评估研究。研究表明：第一，T旧
城改造项目风险具有不确定性、客观性、普遍性和相对性特点；第二，T旧城
改造项目风险管理现状表现为缺乏风险指标数据库、风险评估缺乏量化、风险
应对方法单一三方面问题；第三，管理层风险管控意识不强、风险组织机构缺
失、风险资金不足风险使得 T旧城改造项目风险管理的主要问题；第四，T旧
城改造项目建设阶段的风险主要有工期进度风险、资金成本风险、质量风险、
技术风险、安全风险第五，T旧城改造项目建设阶段整体风险为中等风险、工
期进度风险为较高风险、资金成本风险中等风险、质量风险为中等风险、技术
风险为较高风险、安全风险为较高风险。
针对 T旧城改造项目在建设阶段的风险评估结果，本研究提出应对措施：
在加强工期进度风险管控上，要完善编制项目进度计划书、完善项目进度控制
的人员组织、建立项目进度控制流程体系、明晰项目进度控制；在加强项目资
金成本风险管控上，要施工技术上的成本控制、合理控制材料费用、合理控制
设备费用、加强对项目经理的监督；在加强项目质量风险管控上，要优化质量
控制流程、多角度的质量控制；在加强项目技术风险管控上，要建立施工技术
班组制，部分技术外包；在加强项目安全风险管控上，要建立安全管理组织机
构和安全管理制度。
关键词：旧城改造项目；项目管理；风险识别；风险评估；风险应对
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Abstract
Abstract
Compared with other real estate projects, the old city reconstruction has the
characteristics of long development cycle, large investment, many stakeholders and
complex construction process, so the risk of old city transformation is greater.
Therefore, the risk research value of old city reconstruction is more valuable.
Based on the theory of project management and risk management, this paper
studies the risk identification and evaluation of theTold city reconstruction project of
Zhejiang Kunlun real estate group. The results show that: (1) the risk ofTold city
reconstruction project has the characteristics of uncertainty, objectivity, universality
and relativity. (2) The current situation of risk management ofTold city
reconstruction project is manifested in three aspects: lack of risk index database, lack
of quantification of risk assessment and single risk response method. (3) The main
problems of risk management and control ofTold city reconstruction project are lack
of risk management awareness, lack of risk organization and insufficient risk capital.
(4) The risks in the construction stage ofTold city reconstruction project mainly
include schedule risk, capital cost risk, quality risk, technical risk and safety risk. (5)
T old city reconstruction project construction stage overall risk is medium risk;
construction schedule risk is higher risk; capital cost risk is medium risk; quality risk
is medium risk; technical risk is high risk; safety risk is high risk.
Finally, the analysis results are given, and the corresponding measures are
given. For the duration risk, the first is to improve the preparation of the project
schedule plan, the second is to improve the personnel organization of the project
schedule control, the third is to establish the project schedule control process system,
and the fourth is to clarify the project schedule control; in view of the cost risk, the
first is the construction technology cost control, the second is the reasonable control
of material cost In view of the quality risk, the first is to optimize the quality control
process; the second is to carry out quality control from multiple angles; the first is to
establish the construction technology team system; the second is to outsource part of
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Abstract
the technology; the other is to establish the safety management organization and the
second is to establish the safety management system.
Key Words: Old city reconstruction project; Project management; Risk
identification; Riskassessment;Riskresponse
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