摘要
随着全球气温普遍升高，世界各地区温度和降水量等主要气候特征值不断发生变化，
气象灾害和极端天气事件也越来越频发，影响了经济社会的正常运行和发展。我国面对
气候变化问题，向世界郑重承诺将努力达成“双碳”目标，在这一大背景下，我国商业
银行作为金融体系中十分关键的角色，在履行社会责任的同时，必须更加关注气候变化
可能带来的各种风险，防范“绿天鹅”事件带来的损害。尤其是对于地方性商业银行来
说，其经营特征决定了其对气候变化相关风险可能具备更高的敏感性。
本文的研究目的是从理论和实证两个方面分析气候变化与地方性商业银行经营风
险之间的关系，全面了解气候变化影响地方性商业银行经营风险的方式和气候因素对银
行风险的影响程度，由此为该类银行适应气候变化、增强风险管理、适度跨区域经营和
实现绿色金融提供依据。
在研究方法上，本文聚焦于地方性商业银行，通过研究大量文献，明确了气候变化
与地方性商业银行的相关研究成果。在定性研究方面，本文详细分析了气候变化影响地
方性商业银行经营风险的两条主要传导路径和四类具体表现。在定量研究方面，本文以
覆盖全国 29个省市的 212家地方性商业银行为样本，搜集其 2010~2020年连续 11年的
风险数据，采用年均气温与年降水量作为衡量气候变化状况的测度指标，又选取商业银
行的特征变量和各地区宏观经济变量作为控制变量，采用固定效应模型，实证研究了地
方性商业银行的经营风险受气候状况影响的变动方向和程度。
本文研究结果表明：气温因素和降水因素都会显著影响地方性商业银行的经营风险；
气温因素和银行风险加权资产占比呈“倒 U形”关系；降水量与加权风险资产占比变量
和不良贷款率变量都呈“U形”关系。文章最后从银行和监管部门两个角度对地方性商
业银行应对气候变化的措施提出了建议。
关键词：气候变化地方性商业银行经营风险
I

Research on the Relationship between Climate Change and
Operational Risk of Local Commercial Banks
Abstract
With the general rise of global temperature, the main climate characteristics such as
temperature and precipitation in various regions are constantly changing, and meteorological
disasters and extreme weather events are becoming more and more frequent, affecting the
normal operation and development of economy and society. Facing the problem of climate
change, China has promised to the world that we will strive to achieve the carbon peak and
neutrality goals. Under this background, commercial banks, as a critical role in the financial
system, must pay more attention to various risks that may be brought about by climate change
and prevent the damage caused by the “Green Swan” incidents. Especially for local
commercial banks, their operational characteristics determine that they may be more sensitive
to climate change-related risks.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between climate change and the
operational risk of local commercial banks from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and to
fully understand the ways in which climate change affects the operational risk of local
commercial banks and the extent to which climate factors affect bank risk. This provides a
basis for such banks to adapt to climate change, enhance risk management, moderate
cross-regional operation and achieve green finance.
This paper focuses on local commercial banks and clarifies the relevant research results of
climate change and local commercial banks through many literatures. In terms of qualitative
research, this paper analyzes two main transmission paths and four specific manifestations of
the impact of climate change on the operational risk of local commercial banks. In the aspect
of quantitative research, this paper takes 212 local commercial banks covering 29 provinces
across the country as the research samples, and collecting their risk data for 11 years from
2010 to 2020, and using the annual average temperature and annual precipitation are used as
the measure of climate change. The characteristic variables and macroeconomic variables of
commercial banks are selected to be used as the control variables. The fixed effect model was
used to empirically study the changing direction and extent of the local commercial bank’s
operational risk affected by the climate conditions. The results show that the climatic factors
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both significantly affect the operational risk of local commercial banks; the relationship
between temperature factor and the proportion of risk-weighted assets of banks is "inverted
U-Shape"; the relationship between precipitation and the proportion of risk-weighted assets
and non-performing loan ratio is "U-Shape". Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions
for local commercial banks to cope with climate change from the perspectives of banks and
regulatory authorities.
Keywords：Climate change Local commercial bank Operational Risk
III
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